Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker
- Thiago Santos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders.
- Tools: Santos has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov.
- Tools: Walker has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
Santos just hasn’t been the same since his Jon Jones fight. He gassed out going for the finish with Glover Teixeira. Couldn’t get him out. Gassed out. Got finished on the ground. And then he was very hesitant with Aleksandar Rakic. Walker has the same level of striking as Rakic, just without the wrestling. I see Walker being pretty aggressive early, per usual. And if Santos can’t match the intensity, Walker will get him out fast. And I think that’s what happens. It might be an all or nothing approach, but Walker has had his most success when he blitzes and goes for the 1st round finish. My only concern with betting Walker is that Santos could have better wrestling and if he ties up Walker in the 1st, puts some weight on him, tries to tire him out, that Santos could win stretching this fight out to the later rounds. But amazingly, Walker is a +145 underdog. That’s a great price.
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 1st round knockout.
Kevin Holland vs Kyle Daukaus
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 9-3 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Tools: Holland has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Daukaus has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
So this fight is obviously going to come down to whether or not Holland has improved his wrestling. Daukaus did show vast improvement in his striking in his last fight with Phil Hawes. But he’s not going to be able to trade with Holland. I think Holland might get taken down once or twice, but will try and end it quick in the 1st. But I think Holland is a little too heavy at -150. This should be closer to a pick em. Daukaus is very, very live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 1st round knockout.
Niko Price vs Alex Oliveira
- Niko Price
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.
- Tools: Price has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Alex Oliveira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Yancy Medeiros.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Beat Peter Sobotta.
- Tools: Oliveira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Both guys are on a slide, but I think Oliveira’s is less likely to be temporary. He’s lost 5 of his last 7 fights. 19 UFC fights. That’s a lot of mileage on his body. Price has lost 4 out of his last 6 but with context, it’s not so bad. He should have beat Donald Cerrone, but Price got a point taken away in the fight, which originally was scored a draw but later over turned to a no contest. Oliveira was knocked out by Randy Brown in his last fight. Price is really similar to Brown. Price has a knockout win over Brown. I think Price gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Price by 2nd round knockout.
Misha Cirkunov vs Krzysztof Jotko
- Misha Cirkunov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute, Nikita Krylov, and Ion Cutelaba.
- Tools: Cirkunov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Krzysztof Jotko
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Magnus Cedenblad. Split decision loss to David Branch.
- Key Wins: Beat Thales Leites and Eryk Anders. Split decision over Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Tools: Jotko has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Jotko’s lack of power gives Cirkunov a decent chance at winning this fight. Because Cirkunov’s big flaw is that his chin doesn’t hold up very well. It’s also good because Cirkunov is also moving down in weight for the first time and sometimes when older fighters do that, they’re not able to take as much damage. Now, could Cirkunov get a take down here or there? Yeah. Could Cirkunov catch Jotko in a submission while on the ground? Yeah. But the most likely outcome is Jotko being able to get up and score enough points on the feet to win the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Jotko by decision.
Aspen Ladd vs Macy Chiasson
- Aspen Ladd
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yana Kunitskaya. Beat Sijara Eubanks.
- Tools: Ladd has above average striking (60) and plus wrestling (70).
- Macy Chiasson
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad. Knocked out Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany. Beat Marion Reneau.
- Tools: Chiasson has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Chiasson has improved her wrestling but she’s never fought anybody on Ladd’s level. My only concern with Ladd is that her chin has been questionable lately, but I don’t see there being any issues to Ladd getting Chiasson to the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Ladd by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
Alexander Hernandez vs Mike Breeden
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Francisco Trinaldo.
- Tools: Hernandez has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Mike Breeden
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Tools: Breeden has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (50).
Hernandez needed a short notice replacement and Breeden steps in. But is this a competitive fight? No. And it’s not just because it’s short notice. I’m confident in Hernandez having well rounded 65 grades. Even if Breeden has improved his striking to a 55 since the last time I saw him, he’ll be nowhere near the level of Hernandez. Basically, the only risk of Hernandez losing this fight is him getting too aggressive in finishing Breeden early and then gassing out.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 1st round knockout.
Joe Solecki vs Jared Gordon
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Jim Miller.
- Tools: Solecki has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Danny Chavez and Chris Fishgold.
- Tools: Gordon has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Based on where the line was when Solecki fought Jim Miller, Solecki being a -285 favorite, it’s clear the betting public thought Solecki had 70 grappling and could control Miller on the ground. And that’s exactly what happened in the fight. So after being skeptical initially, I’d agree Solecki’s grappling is at a 70. And Gordon’s wrestling is about on the same level as Miller’s. A 60. So I think there’s a lot of value in Solecki at -150. Even if Gordon is able to get back up and avoid the submissions, I also think Solecki’s stand up is better too.
Chris’ Pick: Solecki by 2nd round submission.
Antonina Shevchenko vs Casey O’Neill
- Antonina Shevchenko
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Lucie Pudilova. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
- Tools: Antonina Shevchenko has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Casey O’Neill
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shana Dobson. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: O’Neill has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus wrestling (65).
If you watched Antonina’s last fight with Andrea Lee, you’d think that she has no wrestling. But that’s not the case. The fight before that, she beat Lipski because of her improved wrestling. It’s just likely that Andrea Lee improved her grappling to a 70. But there’s a big difference between Lee and O’Neill. Lee was able to tie Antonina up with grappling. O’Neill isn’t a grappler. Just a wrestler. So I think it could be a close fight. I see O’Neill going for take down after take down. And when the fight is on the feet, I see Antonino out classing her there. I think Shevchenko keeps the fight on the feet and scores enough strikes to get the decision.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by decision.
Karol Rosa vs Bethe Correia
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio.
- Tools: Rosa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Bethe Correia
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-5-1
- Key Draw: Fought Marion Reneau to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Sijara Eubanks. Split decision over Jessica Eye.
- Tools: Correia has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has above average wrestling (60).
I don’t know what the exact numbers are, but I do know the vast majority of fighters that go into their retirement matchup, lose. I’m confident in where I graded Rosa. Correia, she’s not better than her grades here. And she might even regress depending on how much and how hard she’s been training. Rosa is a -325 favorite as of now and I expect that number to balloon up as we get closer to the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by decision.
Devonte Smith vs Jamie Mullarkey
- Devonte Smith
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out Dong Hyun Ma, Julian Erosa, a 7-2 wrestler and an 8-0 striker.
- Tools: Smith has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Mullarkey has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
My knee jerk reaction after seeing this fight announced was, okay, let’s see if Smith can handle Mullarkey’s wrestling. But I forgot what happened in Smith vs Justin Jaynes. Jaynes has 50 grappling. And Smith took him down in the 2nd and dominated him there. Ended up getting a doctor stoppage TKO. So I think Smith will be able to stay on the feet. So what this fight really comes down to is whether or not Mullarkey has been able to improve his striking from a 60 to a 65 in the past year. Because the 46 seconds it took for him to knock out Worthy, that’s not enough time to see if his stand up has really improved. But I only pick based on projection when I have to.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 2nd round knockout.
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Gaetano Pirrello
- Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Beat Marlon Vera.
- Tools: de Andrade has above average striking with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Gaetano Pirrello
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-5-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler and a 14-5 striker. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Pirrello has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
Coming into his UFC debut, Pirrello looked like an average well rounded fighter. But he did surprise me with his wrestling. Ultra tough matchup with Ricky Simon and even though Pirrello lost, he did get back up multiple times throughout the fight. Something not everybody is able to do with Simon. Silva de Andrade is pretty under rated and the fact that he’s not ranked shows how deep 135 lbs is. I could be wrong on Pirrello’s striking. It could be a 55. But it’s absolutely not a 60 and I’m confident Silva de Andrade has at least 60 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Silva de Andrade by decision.
Stephanie Egger vs Shanna Young
- Stephanie Egger
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Tools: Egger has average striking (50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Shanna Young
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over Pam Sorenson.
- Tools: Young has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m not really sure what to make of Young. She got out classed by Sarah Alpar in the wrestling. Then fought Macy Chiasson on short notice and look much improved. I had Chiasson with 55 wrestling at the time and the wrestling between her and Young was close to equal. But hard to tell because Young started to gas out. Young also looked improved in the striking. I’ll also go out on a limb and say Young having 60 striking is possible. But I wouldn’t call this fight a lock for Young because Egger could have 55 striking. And I am confident in saying Egger has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Young by split decision.
Alejandro Perez vs Johnny Eduardo
- Alejandro Perez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-4 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat Jose Quinonez and Eddie Wineland.
- Tools: Perez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Johnny Eduardo
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Tools: Eduardo has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
Perez should win this fight. Eduardo hasn’t fought in over 3 years. Eduardo is 41 years old. Eduardo has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. But despite those things, he did show skills in his last fight with Nathaniel Wood, who’s a pretty decent fighter. Perez at -230 is a bit of a trap in my opinion. Perez should be closer to a -150 favorite so for that reason, I’m staying away from it.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by split decision.