#1 Jon Jones (11-0) vs. #7 Chael Sonnen (0-0) – for light-heavyweight title
Pick: Jon Jones – I don’t think there’s a single, serious MMA prognosticator that’s out there that’s picking Chael Sonnen to win. And how can you? Jones has been so dominant. But then I see some people say that this fight is a joke. Sonnen is going to get embarrassed. Jones will win however he wants to win. Sonnen has no business being in this fight. Well, it wasn’t too long ago that people were pumped for Frankie Edgar, who was coming off 2 losses in a row, to move down to featherweight and get an immediate title shot with Jose Aldo. That was apparently OK. And then awhile ago, people were clamoring to see Anderson Silva fight Dan Henderson for the middleweight title. Apparently it was no big deal that Dan Henderson was coming off a loss to Rampage Jackson in a light heavyweight title fight to immediately get a title shot at Anderson. So what makes Chael Sonnen different than Frankie Edgar or Dan Henderson? The answer: these same people do not like Sonnen. They don’t like what he stands for. Or how he promotes himself. Now, it’s OK for someone to have an opinion, but I’m just pointing out there’s is emotionally biased. Here are my facts: Chael Sonnen indisputably is the #2 middleweight in the world. And not just because he was the closest to beating Anderson Silva twice. He’s defeated a laundry list of contenders: Michael Bisping, Brian Stann, Nate Marquardt, Yushin Okami. So in an age when so many people are talking up superfights and how bad they want to see them, what is so wrong with the #1 light heavyweight in the world versus the #2 middleweight in the world? Who do I think will win the fight? Jon Jones. He’s way bigger than Chael. And Jones will use his longest reach in UFC history to make it very difficult for Sonnen to take Jones down or clinch with him on the cage. Difficult. But not impossible. Chael Sonnen could win this fight. Similar to how Frankie Edgar had a shot at beating Jose Aldo. This fight is way closer than the experts think. Because the experts emotionally do not like Chael Sonnen. I predict just like in the first Sonnen vs. Silva fight, Chael will surprise people and look much better than they thought he would. But I still think Jones will win the fight.
#4 Jim Miller (11-3) vs. #17 Pat Healy (7-2)
Pick: Jim Miller – The Strikeforce fighters sure have looked good in the UFC so far. Whether it’s they’re better than we thought they were or maybe they’re hungrier, but either way, they’re having success. Especially seeing Josh Thomson knock out Nate Diaz last week. And in the same vein, it’s now looking like Pat Healy is a lot better than people are giving him credit for. But unfortunately for Healy, Miller has the same strengths that he has and Miller is better everywhere. Miller is also younger and isn’t as worn down as Healy. If this fight happened maybe 2-3 years ago, I’d probably pick Healy in the upset. But Healy struggled and barely beat Mizuto Hirota. He barely beat Kurt Holobaugh. I think his skills are starting to decline. And that translates into a good night for Jim Miller.
#4 Phil Davis (6-1) vs. #26 Vinny Magalhaes (1-2)
Pick: Phil Davis – I don’t see any way Vinny can win this fight. His only chance I see is winning with a triangle or another submission off his back, but I think Davis is smart enough to know how obvious that is and prepare for it. Phil Davis is extremely under rated. He’s had one bad night in the UFC losing by decision to Rashad Evans, but he has big wins over Alexander Gustafsson and little Nog. Two fighters that are looking pretty good these days. This is an easy fight for Phil Davis.
#8 Alan Belcher (9-5) vs. #9 Michael Bisping (9-4)
Pick: Alan Belcher – Here’s my big upset special of the night! The sad fact is that here are Michael Bisping’s biggest wins in the UFC: a close decision loss to Chael Sonnen. A win over Brian Stann, who has looked average since getting knocked out by a well over the hill Wanderlei Silva. Chris Leben back in 2008. And that’s about it. Unless you want to count Mayhem Miller, Jorge Rivera, Yoshihiro Akiyama or Dan Miller in the elite category. The reason why Michael Bisping loses in every #1 contender fight he’s in is because he’s over rated. The UFC is very careful with how they match Bisping up. The UFC wants Bisping to win and do well because he is a draw and England’s biggest star. But in reality, he’s just a gatekeeper in the middleweight division. Not too different than Roy Nelson at heavyweight. Alan Belcher has really looked like a different fighter and has been on a real roll in the UFC until Yushin Okami made him look bad last december. But Okami makes everyone look bad. Okami would make Bisping look terrible. Belcher is way more dangerous on the feet than Bisping and Bisping’s wrestling isn’t on a high enough level to be able to take Belcher down. I think this fight will spell the end of the Michael Bisping title run.
#13 Roy Nelson (5-3) vs. #14 Cheick Kongo (11-5)
Pick: Roy Nelson – In a battle of heavyweight gate keepers, I see Nelson pulling ahead. Kongo is more worn down, has had way more wars. Roy, I think is still in his prime, has a granite chin and can submit Kongo on the ground if Cheick tries to take him down.
#6 Sara McMann (0-0) vs. #10 Sheila Gaff (0-0)
Pick: Sara McMann – This fight should really be on the pay per view main card but because of how stacked the pay per view is, I understand. Sheila Gaff is becoming a very trendy upset pick here. People are saying that Gaff has the best knockout power out of all the female fighters besides Cris Cyborg. And they’re right that Gaff is way better and poses a more serious threat to McMann’s ascension to title contention than the casual fans think. But Sara’s world class wrestling will be the difference here. Gaff won’t be able to stop the take downs and this is going to be the key to Sara winning a close fight.
#13 Johnny Bedford (2-0) vs. #23 Bryan Caraway (2-1)
Pick: Johnny Bedford – Caraway has looked much improved since his lackluster days in the WEC, but he’s taking the fight on a week’s notice. And Bedford has been getting much better since his days on the Ultimate Fighter as well finishing two pretty decent fighters in the UFC. Caraway usually wins fights with take downs and top game, but Bedford is a really big bantamweight who has good wrestling and I don’t think Miesha Tate’s boyfriend is going to be able to take Johnny down.
#19 Ovince St. Preux (5-1) vs. #28 Gian Villante (2-1)
Pick: Ovince St. Preux – In such a shallow division like the light heavyweight division, both of these fighters should be a welcome addition in the UFC. St. Preux looked very good in Strikeforce and his only loss is coming up short against Gegard Mousasi. Villante is a fighter that had a lot of hype coming from Ring of Combat, but has failed to live up to it. He’s looked better winning his last 3 fights in a row, but when you fight a journeyman like Keith Barry who’s record is 14-10, who doesn’t even deserve to fight Villante, and don’t finish him, that tells you something. Top fighters finish tomato cans. And I think the Barry fight is evidence Gian is not that. So it makes me even more confident in picking St. Preux.
#38 Rustam Khabilov (1-0) vs. Yancy Medeiros (0-0, #8 LW Prospect)
Pick: Rustam Khabilov – This is one of the more interesting fights on the whole card. Khabilov trains with Greg Jackson, is 15-1 and in his UFC debut, knocked out Vinc Pichel via suplex. Very promising UFC prospect. On the other hand, Yancy Medeiros, who was ranked #8 on my lightweight mma prospects list, has not fought in close to 3 years. He’s also a former light heavyweight that was pretty good in the that weight class before gradually moving down to 185 lbs, 170 lbs and in his last couple fights 155 lbs. He also trains with the Diaz brothers. Word on the street is that this guy is legit and that he’s going to make a name in knocking off Khabilov. I’m tempted to pick the upset, but I can’t pick a guy who hasn’t fought in 3 years. I can’t.
#23 Steven Siler (3-1) vs. #41 Kurt Holobaugh (0-1)
Pick: Steven Siler – Another interesting fight as Holobuagh is a hot prospect coming in on short notice and losing a close fight to Pat Healy. But Siler is a legit featherweight. He’s beaten Cole Miller and Joey Gambino, two fighters I think very highly of. But it wouldn’t shock me if Holobaugh pulls off the upset.
#42 Cody McKenzie (0-1) vs. #50 Leonard Garcia (5-7)
Pick: Leonard Garcia – This fight really doesn’t belong in the UFC. If you look up one-dimensional in the dictionary, you’d find a picture of Cody McKenzie. He has one move. The guillotine. That’s it. Garcia is low tier gate keeper, but I think he’s better than McKenzie.