Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-3
- Key Wins: Beat Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Sean Brady
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, Jake Matthews, and Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Gilbert Burns, Court McGee, and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Brady’s stand up got way, way, way better as he out struck Burns by an astounding 118 to 32. He doesn’t at all resemble the guy that lost to Belal Muhammad.
Chris’ Pick: Brady by 3rd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brady -200
Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 12-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alex Pereira.
- Key Draws: Fought Magomed Ankalaev to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Carlos Ulberg
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Ihor Potieria, Nicolae Negumereanu, Tafon Nchukwi, an 8-2 striker, and a 5-1 grappler. Submitted Da Woon Jung. Beat Volkan Oezdemir.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I graded Oezdeir’s striking a 75 based on what he did to Johnny Walker in the stand up. Thus, with Ulberg’s striking with Oezdemir being close to equal, I now have Ulberg’s striking a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ulberg -225
Kevin Holland vs Gunnar Nelson
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 170 lbs. 13-9 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Gunnar Nelson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Bryan Barberena, Alex Oliveira, and Alan Jouban. Beat Takashi Sato.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holland -300
Molly McCann vs Alexia Thainara
- Molly McCann
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Goldy and Luana Carolina. Submitted Diana Belbita. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Ariane Lipski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alexia Thainara
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Rayanne dos Santos. Knocked out a 3-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-0 fighter and a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: McCann by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McCann -125
Chris Duncan vs Jordan Vucenic
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Submitted Bolaji Oki. Beat Yanal Ashmoz. Split decision over Omar Morales.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jordan Vucenic
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a 6-0 striker. Split decision over Paul Hughes and Morgan Charriere.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Vucenic by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vucenic -350
Nathaniel Wood vs Morgan Charriere
- Nathaniel Wood
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez, Beat Daniel Pineda, Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain, and Charles Rosa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Morgan Charriere
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 20-10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal.
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out Gabriel Miranda, Maolo Zecchini, and a 17-4 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Wood by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Wood -200
Jai Herbert vs Chris Padilla
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 2-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Draws: Fought Ludovit Klein to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Beat Rolando Bedoya and Kyle Nelson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Chris Padilla
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rongzhu and Justin Jaynes. Beat a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Submitted James Llontop and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I might be iffy now on whether Rongzhu’s striking is a 65 or not, but with Padilla out striking him 62 to 43, I have no doubt about Padilla’s striking being a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Padilla by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Padilla -125
Lone’er Kavanagh vs Felipe dos Santos
- Lone’er Kavanagh
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Jose Ochoa and a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Felipe dos Santos
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 striker. Split decision over Victor Altamirano.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Slight possibility that dos Santos has 70 striking with him out landing Andre Lima 33 to 14.
Chris’ Pick: dos Santos by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: dos Santos -175
Marcin Tybura vs Mick Parkin
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jhonata Diniz, Walt Harris, and Greg Hardy. Submitted Tai Tuivasa. Beat Blagoi Ivanov, Andrei Arlovski, and Sergei Spivac. Majority decision over Alexandr Romanov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Mick Parkin
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lukasz Brzeski. Submitted Eduardo Neves. Beat Mohammed Usman, Caio Machado, and Jamal Pogues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Yes, Parkin’s knockout over Brzeski looks great. I know the market thinks Parkin has 65 striking but the numbers don’t bear that out. His striking with Mohammed Usman was close to equal and he was out striking Brzeski 28 to 20 up until the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Tybura by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tybura -300
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Andrey Pulyaev
- Christian Leroy Duncan
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin, a 5-0 grappler, and an 8-0 wrestler, and a 10-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andrey Pulyaev
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Duncan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Duncan -135
Shaunna Bannon vs Puja Tomar
- Shauna Bannon
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a 3-0-1 striker. Split decision over Alice Ardelean.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Puja Tomar
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2-1 fighter. Split decision over Rayanne dos Santos.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I thought dos Santos came in with 60 wrestling and would be able to take Tomar down but she wasn’t. Probably because dos Santos’ wrestling is more of a 55. Because being that Tomar’s best tool is her striking, I doubt Tomar’s wrestling would be a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Bannon by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bannon -400
Caolan Loughran vs Nathan Fletcher
- Caolan Loughran
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Beat Angel Pacheco.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nathan Fletcher
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-2 striker, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, a 10-3 wrestler, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a 3-0 striker. Beat a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I thought Jake Hadley had 65 striking. His striking was close to equal with Loughran so for a bit I wondered if Loughran improved his striking. But then Hadley gets out struck 96 to 59 by Cameron Smotherman showing that Hadley’s striking instead has been a 60 and thus Loughran’s striking tool the 60 grade I thought it was all along.
Chris’ Pick: Loughran by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Loughran -135
Guram Kutateladze vs Kaue Fernandes
- Guram Kutateladze
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damir Ismagulov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 wrestler and a 9-2 striker. Beat Jordan Vucenic, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 22-5 fighter. Split decision over Mateusz Gamrot.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Kaue Fernandes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marc Diakiese.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler. Knocked out Mohammed Yahya, a 19-5 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Kutateladze by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kutateladze -250