Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-5-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 185 lbs. 8-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vettori -200
Chidi Njokuani vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Albert Duraev.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat Jared Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision wins over Rhys McKee and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov and Nicholas Dalby.
- Key Draws: Fought Rinat Fakheretdinov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zachary Scroggin, Omari Akhmedov, and Sean Strickland. Beat Benoit St. Denis and Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision wins over Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Lyman Good.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Zaleski dos Santos by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zaleski dos Santos -135
Alexander Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damon Jackson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Jim Miller, Oliver Aubin-Mercier, and Francisco Trinaldo. Split decision over Austin Hubbard.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Kurt Holobaugh
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard. Beat Kaynan Kruschewsky.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -250
Da’Mon Blackshear vs Cody Gibson
- Da’Mon Blackshear
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luan Lacerda. Submitted Cody Stamann, Jose Johnson, Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Cody Gibson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher and Francisco Rivera. Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat Chad Anheliger, John Dodson and a 19-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Gibson’s wrestling is getting really close to a 70 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blackshear -350
Brendson Ribeiro vs Diyar Nurgozhay
- Brendson Ribeiro
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-7
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonio Arroyo and a 6-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter and a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Caio Machado.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Diyar Nurkozhay
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2-1 fighter. Beat a 12-3 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Ribeiro by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ribeiro -225
Kevin Vallejos vs Seung Woo Choi
- Kevin Vallejos
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luiz Garagorri, an 8-0 striker, and a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Culibao.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Jarno Errens, Youssef Zalal, and an 8-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’m pretty confident Cam Teague has 60 tools. Small sample, but Vallejos out struck him 47 to 12 so the striking seems to be a legit 70 tool. Choi has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights.
Chris’ Pick: Vallejos by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vallejos -275
Ryan Spann vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ovince St Preux, Ion Cutelaba, and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Robelis Despagne, Andre Arlovski, Chase Sherman, and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Chris’ Pick: Spann by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Spann -135
Suyoung Yu vs AJ Cunningham
- Suyoung Yu
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 19-5 fighter. Beat Jieleyisi Baergeng. Split decision over Zhawupasi Daermisi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- AJ Cunningham
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a 5-3 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I’ve watched Baerjeng Jieleyisi a few times and for Yu to out strike Jieleyisi 36 to 9 is really impressive.
Chris’ Pick: Yu by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yu -500
Josias Musasa vs Carlos Vera
- Josias Musasa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 9-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Carlos Vera
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Vera by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vera -225
Stephanie Luciano vs Sam Hughes
- Stephanie Luciano
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1-1
- UFC Record: 1-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Talita Alencar to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Talita Alencar and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat Jaqueline Amorim and a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Majority decision over Istela Nunes. Split decision over Viktoriia Dudakova.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Hughes by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hughes -200
Andre Lima vs Daniel Barez
- Andre Lima
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat Felipe dos Santos and a 14-1 grappler. Split decision over Mitch Raposo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Daniel Barez
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker. Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Beat Victor Altamirano and a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Barez closed as close to a pick em against Altamirano. I disagreed. Thought Altamirano proved he had 65 striking and wrestling in his fight with Felipe dos Santos. But the Altamirno vs Barez fight turned out to be close like the market thought. So I think it’s more likely that I was under rating Barez as dos Santos proved his skills against Manel Kape.
Chris’ Pick: Lima by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lima -175
Josiane Nunes vs Priscila Cachoeira
- Josiane Nunes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jacqueline Cavalcanti.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bea Malecki, a 6-1 striker, a 3-0 grappler. Beat Zarah Fairn and Ramona Pascual.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Priscila Cachoeira
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski, Gina Mazany, and Shana Dobson. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Nunes by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nunes -135
Carli Judice vs Yuneisy Duban
- Carli Judice
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Gabriella Fernandes and Ernesta Kareckaite.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Yuneisy Duban
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I was really confident Shannon Clark would beat Duban, thought Clark should be around a -300 favorite. Thought the market had lost it’s mind pricing Clark at -1300 at the close. Fight played out for just a minute, so obviously small sample. Obviously Duban is better than we all thought. But not quite sure I have her graded right, might be over rating her a tad. Another factor is Clark not showing Duban any respect, not taking her seriously. Upsets happen because of that sometimes. I have no clue how the judges didn’t give Judice the win in her last fight. She out struck Fernandes 149 to 95. Crazy.
Chris’ Pick: Judice by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Judice -135