Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 10-5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brandon Royval.
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Deiveson Figueiredo, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Royval. Beat Amir Albazi, Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Steve Erceg
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell. Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Moreno by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Moreno -300
Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober
- Manuel Torres
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Duncan, a well rounded 14-5 fighter, and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out Nik Motta, Frank Camacho, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Drew Dober
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 13-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Glenn, Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Dober by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dober -125
Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 170 lbs. 12-9 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Daniel Rodriguez, Chris Curtis and Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Joe Pyfer
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marc Andre Barriault, Gerald Meerschaert, Alen Amedovski, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I can’t grade Gastelum’s striking a 70 after Rodriguez out struck him 127 to 105.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pyfer -225
Raul Rosas Jr vs Vince Morales
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 20
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell. Submitted Ricky Turcios and Jay Perrin. Beat Aoriqileng and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Vince Morales
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-8
- Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rosas Jr -250
David Martinez vs Saimon Oliveira
- David Martinez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Saimon Oliveira
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-2 wrestler. Split decision win over a well rounded 13-5 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Martinez -300
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas
- Ronaldo Rodriguez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 18-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Denys Bondar and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Ode Osbourne and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Kevin Borjas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -135
Edgar Chairez vs CJ Vergara
- Edgar Chairez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-6
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Daniel Lacerda and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- CJ Vergara
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva, Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Chairez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chairez -300
Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier
- Jose Daniel Medina
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 4-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Ateba Gautier
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Gautier by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gauthier -200
Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat Austin Bashi, Cameron Saaiman, Raul Rosas Jr, and a 5-1 striker. Split decision over Isaac Dulgarian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Melquizael Costa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 21-7
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nuerdanbieke Shayilan. Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Costa out struck Fili 26 to 7 so there’s zero doubt that his striking tool is a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -250
Loopy Godinez vs Julia Polastri
- Loopy Godinez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 115 lbs. 7-3 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed and Silvana Juarez. Beat Emily Ducote, Ariane Carnelossi, and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision wins over Tabatha Ricci and Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Julia Polastri
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over Cory McKenna.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Polastri by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Polastri -125
Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel
- Rafa Garcia
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Jesse Ronson. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Maheshate Hayisaer and a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Vinc Pichel
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Beat Austin Hubbard, Jim Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, and Joaquim Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Garcia -175
Gabriel Miranda vs Jamall Emmers
- Gabriel Miranda
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 17-7
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 145 lbs. 1-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Shane Young, a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Jenkins.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out Dennis Buzukja and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Part of me is skeptical that Emmers’ striking is a 70, but even in his last fight with Nate Landwehr, where the market did think his striking is a 70 as he closed a -185 favorite, Emmers was out striking Landwehr 36 to 24. Couple that with his strikes being close to equal with Jenkins and I can’t deny that tool being a 70 anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Emmers by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Emmers -135
MarQuel Mederos vs Austin Hubbard
- MarQuel Mederos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-3 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Landon Quinones and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Austin Hubbard
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Based off the numbers from Hubbard’s fight with Hernandez, his striking is really close to a 65 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Hubbard by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hubbard -135