Moreno vs Erceg, Torres vs Dober, Rosas Jr vs Morales Fight Picks – March 29, 2025

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

  • Brandon Moreno
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 10-5-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brandon Royval.
  • Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Deiveson Figueiredo, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Royval. Beat Amir Albazi, Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit. 
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)
  • Steve Erceg
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell. Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Moreno by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Moreno -300


Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober

  • Manuel Torres
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Chris Duncan, a well rounded 14-5 fighter, and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out Nik Motta, Frank Camacho, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Drew Dober
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 13-10
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Glenn, Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Dober by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dober -125


Edgar Chairez vs CJ Vergara

  • Edgar Chairez
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 11-6
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Daniel Lacerda and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • CJ Vergara
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 4-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva, Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Chairez by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chairez -300


Raul Rosas Jr vs Vince Morales

  • Raul Rosas Jr
  • Age: 20
  • UFC Record: 5-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell. Submitted Ricky Turcios and Jay Perrin. Beat Aoriqileng and a 7-1 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Vince Morales
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 3-8
  • Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rosas Jr -250


David Martinez vs Saimon Oliveira

  • David Martinez
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 6-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Saimon Oliveira
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 18-5
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-2 wrestler. Split decision win over a well rounded 13-5 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Martinez -300


Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas

  • Ronaldo Rodriguez
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 18-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Denys Bondar and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Ode Osbourne and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Kevin Borjas
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -135


Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier

  • Jose Daniel Medina
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 11-4
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 4-2 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Ateba Gautier
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Gautier by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gauthier -200


Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa

  • Christian Rodriguez
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat Austin Bashi, Cameron Saaiman, Raul Rosas Jr, and a 5-1 striker. Split decision over Isaac Dulgarian.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Melquizael Costa
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 21-7
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Nuerdanbieke Shayilan. Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Costa out struck Fili 26 to 7 so there’s zero doubt that his striking tool is a 70.

Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -250


Loopy Godinez vs Julia Polastri

  • Loopy Godinez
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-2 at 115 lbs. 7-3 overall
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed and Silvana Juarez. Beat Emily Ducote, Ariane Carnelossi, and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision wins over Tabatha Ricci and Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Julia Polastri
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 13-4
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over Cory McKenna.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Polastri by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Polastri -125


Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel

  • Rafa Garcia
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-4
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jesse Ronson. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Maheshate Hayisaer and a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Vinc Pichel
  • Age: 42
  • UFC Record: 10-5
  • Key Wins: Beat Austin Hubbard, Jim Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, and Joaquim Silva.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Garcia -175


Gabriel Miranda vs Jamall Emmers

  • Gabriel Miranda
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 17-7
  • UFC Record: 1-1 at 145 lbs. 1-2 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Shane Young, a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Jamall Emmers
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 3-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Jenkins.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out Dennis Buzukja and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013. 
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Part of me is skeptical that Emmers’ striking is a 70, but even in his last fight with Nate Landwehr, where the market did think his striking is a 70 as he closed a -185 favorite, Emmers was out striking Landwehr 36 to 24. Couple that with his strikes being close to equal with Jenkins and I can’t deny that tool being a 70 anymore.

Chris’ Pick: Emmers by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Emmers -135


MarQuel Mederos vs Austin Hubbard

  • MarQuel Mederos
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-3 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Landon Quinones and a 5-0 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Austin Hubbard
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 4-6
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Hernandez.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Based off the numbers from Hubbard’s fight with Hernandez, his striking is really close to a 65 grade.

Chris’ Pick: Hubbard by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hubbard -135

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