UFC 165: JONES VS. GUSTAFSSON PREDICTIONS
LHW: #1 Jon Jones (12-0) vs. #3 Alexander Gustafsson (7-1) – Light-Heavyweight Title
Pick: Jon Jones – Gustafsson has looked great on his assent up the light heavyweight rankings. He deserves this title shot. And he’ll be ranked in the top 5 at 205 lbs for the next few years at least. And unlike other title challengers Jones has had, Gustafsson actually has a chance to win this fight. A possibility. But in the last couple years, Jones has been the most dominant of all UFC champions. Gustafsson is good, but not Jon Jones good.
BW: #1 Renan Barao (7-0) vs. #3 Eddie Wineland (7-4) – Interim Bantamweight Title
Pick: Renan Barao – Speaking of dominant champions, Barao could be the next fighter joining that elite group. Wineland had an OK looking win over Brad Pickett which convinces me that he’s not going to be good enough to win. Wineland’s main chance to win this fight is by knockout and I predict that Barao will catch him. Oh, and just to give you a heads up, I’m predicting early that Renan Barao cruises to beating Dominick Cruz. And that’s if Cruz comes back.
HW: #16 Matt Mitrione (6-2) vs. #17 Brendan Schaub (5-3)
Pick: Matt Mitrione – In a battle of UFC heavyweight gatekeepers, I’m going with Mitrione. Schaub has a knack for getting knocked out against decent competition and that’s what Mitrione does pretty well. Schaub’s career looked bright early on when he temporarily put Gabriel Gonzaga into retirement, beating him. A lot of people thought that a win over Big Nog could even propel him to a title shot. But Big Nog surprised him and knocked him out and he hasn’t been the same since. Seems he might have lost his confidence. Especially when he played it safe out wrestling Lavar Johnson to win, not wanting to stand and trade. I don’t think Schaub is a good enough wrestler to take down Mitrione and that’s going to make the difference in the fight.
MW: #9 Costa Philippou (5-1) vs. #17 Francis Carmont (5-0)
Pick: Costa Philippou – Believe it or not, Carmont actually can be an exciting fighter to watch when he’s confident. But in the last 2 fights he hasn’t been that and a lot of people are thinking he’s not as good as his record indicates. But he’s pretty close to 5-0 good. Unfortunately for him, it’s not good enough to beat Philippou who has decisively beat 5 very good fighters in a row and is getting better.
LW: #7 Pat Healy (8-2) vs. #12 Khabib Nurmagomedov (4-0)
Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov – Say it with me people. Nurma-Go-May-Dov. This guy is the next big thing at lightweight and will be fighting Anthony Pettis for the title towards the end of 2014. Mark me down for that. Based off of looking at Healy’s last fight beating Jim Miller, it appears Healy might have a chance. But before beating Miller, Healy looked very average squeaking wins out over Kurt Holobaugh and Mizuto Hirota. Fighters he should have dominated. This is going to be Khabib’s coming out party.
LW: #15 Myles Jury (3-0) vs. #47 Mike Ricci (1-0)
Pick: Myles Jury – Jury’s win over Michael Johnson made me a believer. Jury is another young lightweight that could fight for the title some day.
BW: #21 Ivan Menjivar (4-3) vs. Wilson Reis (0-0, #88 FW Prospect)
Pick: Wilson Reis – My upset special of the night. Even though Menjivar is 4-3 in WEC/UFC, and 3 of his 4 wins are over guys no longer in the UFC, the UFC voters have him ranked #10. Which is ridiculous. So perception is that Menjivar is a top bantamweight. So imagine my surprise when I pull up the Vegas odds and the bookies have Menjivar favored by only -150. To me, that’s like, whoa! To the casual fans betting on the fight, Menjivar looks like a lay up. #10 ranked fighter versus a newcomer fighting on a couple weeks notice. But the bookies still have this fight pegged at -150. Which should mean the smart people betting agree with me that Menjivar is very over rated. I don’t think Reis is a future contender or anything like that, but I think he’s good enough to beat Menjivar. And hopefully after Reis wins, the UFC voters rank a more deserving fighter like Iuri Alcantara in the top 10.
WW: #49 Stephen Thompson (2-1) vs. #54 Chris Clements (1-0)
Pick: Stephen Thompson – Both fighters have holes in their game and I don’t think either one are super good prospects, but Thompson should edge out the win here.
BW: #22 Dustin Kimura (1-0) vs. #28 Mitch Gagnon (1-1)
Pick: Dustin Kimura – In a very good fight between two of the best up and coming bantamweight mma prospects, I think confidence will be the difference in Kimura winning this fight.
LW: #28 John Makdessi (4-2) vs. #46 Renee Forte (1-0)
Pick: John Makdessi – Makdessi continues to get better at Tri-Star and is going to outclass Forte in this fight with his striking and take down defense.
LW: Michel Richard Prazeres (0-0, #68 UFC WW) vs. Jesse Ronson (0-0, #17 LW Prospect)
Pick: Jesse Ronson – In my humble opinion, this is the toughest fight on the whole card to pick. I’m giving the edge to Ronson due to the tougher competition he’s beat getting to the UFC and the lower confidence Prazeres could have due to coming off a loss in his first UFC fight.
BW: #15 Alex Caceres (3-1) vs. #18 Roland Delorme (3-0)
Pick: Roland Delorme – I’m still in disbelieve that the UFC didn’t put this fight on the Fox Sports 1 televised portion of the prelims, being that the winner of this fight should be close to bursting into the top 10 at 135 lbs. Delorme should win by being more well rounded, more of a finisher and having more ways to win the fight.
HW: Daniel Omielanczuk (0-0, #9 HW Prospect) vs Nandor Guelmino (0-0 #69 HW Prospect)
Pick: Daniel Omielanczuk – Omielanczuk is actually a pretty similar fighter to Josh Barnett in the sense that he likes to take guys down and submit them. So being that’s exactly what Barnett did to Guelmino in his last fight, I predict Omielanczuk doing the same thing.