-Gunnar Nelson: Very good main event. Santiago Ponzinibbio has quietly put together a nice 6-2 record in the UFC. But Nelson has a similar record at 7-2 and has looked special. Only chinks in the armor Nelson has had was against a very good wrestler in Rick Story and a grappler and submission artist even more spectacular than Nelson in Demian Maia. Every other fight, Nelson’s opponents have looked lost against him. And Ponzinibbio is neither a better wrestler than Story, nor better grappler than Nelson. Ponzinibbio might be able to keep the fight on the outside for awhile, sticking and moving. But Nelson will eventually get a hold of him, get the fight to the ground. And submit Ponzinibbio. Par for the course.
-Cynthia Calvillo: I said it when Calvillo debuted on short notice back in March that she had the makings of a title contender. And right now, the women’s strawweight division is getting figured out. Meaning that in a couple years from now, people will remember Calvillo’s submission win over Pearl Gonzalez as I think Gonzalez is going to do very well in the UFC. That was a marquee fight, just without marquee names. Joanne Calderwood is a very popular fighter and I feel that popularity has made her a tad overrated. She’s struggled against top competition and I don’t think the fight with Carvillo will be any different. Carvillo is going to make this look easy and is on her way to a title shot maybe as early as next year.
-Stevie Ray: Don’t count me as a member of the Stevie Ray hype train. His first 2 fights in the UFC, he looked good but has really plateaued in his last 4 fights. I want to pick Felder in an upset, but he’s even more blah, average than Ray. Ray is still only 27 years old, so there’s hope he could be continuing to improve. Felder is 32 years old, probably in his prime right now, maxed out ceiling. I’m not high on either fighter but I like Ray in a decision here.
-Jack Marshman: Not a difficult pick here. Ryan Janes is older at 35 years old. Hasn’t been that active fighting and is an average prospect. And his 1-1 record in the UFC shows pretty much where he’s at. Marshman on the other hand, could become a draw for the UFC in the UK area. He was a draw on the regional circuit for awhile. But to debut like he did upsetting Magnus Cedenblad was pretty special. Not too many prospects do that against fighters with a 4-1 record in the UFC, like Cedenblad had. Marshman did get knocked out by Thiago Santos is his last fight, but Santos is looking like he might be moving to contendership. Marshman is also only 27 years and is getting better. Marshman should be able to finish Janes.
-Paul Craig: UPSET SPECIAL 1: I’m shocked that Khalil Rountree is the favorite. Yes, Rountree looked great knocking out Daniel Jolly. Yes, Craig got knocked out in his last fight against Tyson Pedro. But context: Rountree is 1-2 in the UFC. He has a 5-2 record. He’s still green. Craig is an elite light heavyweight prospect who lost his only fight to another elite prospect in Pedro. Craig’s wins over Karl Moore, Marcin Lazarz, and Henrique da Silva make me confident he’ll find a way to beat Rountree.
-Justin Willis: When this fight was made, I was pretty sure James Mulheron would be the favorite, being that he has some top prospect shine and an 11-1 record. But turns out we have Willis as a -200 favorite. Here I was thinking I was going to pick an upset, but nope. Mulheron has beat some decent fighters. Neil Wain, Stav Economou. But he has 5 decision wins. Now, flyweights, bantamweights, it’s more understandable that there’s more decision wins. The smaller fighters have less power. By percentage, heavyweight fights are most likely to not go to the judges decision because of the power they posses. Yet, Mulheron has 5 decision wins. And yes, you could say Willis is green debuting with a 4-1 record, but he just had most impressive fight yet with a knockout over Juliano Coutinho. Willis by knockout.
-Bobby Nash: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Shaky pick here. Not my usual confidence, as I think this is the toughest fight on the card to pick. I just don’t buy into Danny Roberts resume. Outside the UFC, he struggled to finish below average fighters. Yes, the knockout over Jim Wallhead was impressive. Not many fighters have done that to Wallhead. But finishing Nathan Coy? Coy shouldn’t have fought in the UFC. He was 14-5 going into that fight. Then Roberts failed to finish Dominique Steele. And got knocked out by Mike Perry. I like Nash’s resume better. I liked Nash’s knockouts over good prospects in Deray Davis and especially Lewis Gonzalez. He got into a fire fight against Jingliang Li in his debut and got knocked out, but Li has been looking good. Close fight, but history tells me Nash is likely to come up with a decision win.
-Alexandre Pantoja: I haven’t done my new flyweight prospect rankings yet, but no doubt, Pantoja would be in the top 3. Maybe even #1. He’s beat a who’s who of top Brazilian 125 lbers and 135 lbers. Rough way for Neil Seery to go out in his retirement fight. Pantoja all day.
-Galore Bofando: Charlie Ward is an example of the UFC really, really wanting to have more Irish fighters, signing Ward with only a 3-1 record. Bofando is pretty green too with a 4-2 record, although both his two losses were DQs due to illegal knees. Both fighters are very raw, but I really liked Bofando is his knockout over Wendle Lewis, so I’m picking him.
-Daniel Teymur: Teymur made me a believer with his knockout win over Manolo Scianna last December. Before that, he had never fought anybody. 6-0. All first round finishes. Daniel Henry is a fringy, slightly below average prospect. And he usually fights at 145 lbs. This fight against Teymur will be at 155 lbs, so Henry will be small. Teymur should easily win this, possibly continuing his streak of first round finishes.
-Brett Johns: It was Albert Morales last fight against Andre Soukhamthath that made me lose hope in Morales being a serious prospect. Morales made his debut against Alejandro Perez who had gone 3-1 in the UFC. They fought to a draw. Ok. Not terrible for a debut. Perez has done well in the UFC. Tall order next against Thomas Almeida. Morales got dusted. No shame in that. But an average prospect like Soukhamthath making his debut and Morales barely ekes out a win by split decision? Surprising. Johns is coming in with a lot of hype, but I’m not sold on him being an elite prospect. Yes, he is undefeated. Yes, he has beat some quality fighters. But out of 6 quality opponents Johns has fought, he only finished 1, James MacAlister. That’s a red flag in Johns probably not ending up as an elite 135 lber. But Johns is seasoned in beating fighters the caliber of Morales and Johns should take the clear decision.
-Leslie Smith: I like prospects. I want to believe that Amanda Lemos is good. But I really have no idea because 5 of her 6 wins are against poor fighters. And she need two attempts to beat Mayra Rodrigues (their first fight was a draw). Rodrigues was only 2-0 at the time. Leslie Smith is a classic gatekeeper. And Smith is a steep jump in caliber for Lemos. So steep that I can’t pick the younger, undefeated fighter. Got to go with Smith.