-Jon Jones: Now normally, I’d have no doubt on Jones winning. He’s pretty much undefeated (lone loss is from a bad ref disqualifying him for sideways elbows). Jones has beat Daniel Cormier in their first fight and historically, the fighter that wins the first fight, wins the rematch, most of the time. Plus Jones is in his prime at 30 years old. Cormier is 38. This should be an easy fight to pick. But there’s a bunch of unknown variables. The biggest variable is how Jones looked in his last fight against Ovince St. Preux. Jones didn’t look like his normal self and failed to finish OSP. And that was the first times Jones has fought with USADA drug testing involved. Dan Hardy has a theory that Jones was holding back with Cormier cage side doing commentary. Cormier’s theory is Jones is a cheater. There’s no way of knowing where the truth is. Some have speculated that Jones needed the drugs and the drinking to be who he was. But I don’t buy it. Who did Jones fight just before OSP? Cormier. And that fight was never in doubt with Jones cruising. I tend to go with Hardy’s theory more that Jones was holding back, knowing that he was going to be fighting Cormier again. This is a fight where I wouldn’t be shocked if Cormier pulled off the upset. But I don’t expect it. And I’m picking Jones.
-Tyron Woodley: This is just a theory, but I think when Woodley is convinced he’s going to win, he dominates and knocks the opponent out in the 1st or 2nd round, like with Robbie Lawler, Dong Hyun Kim, Carlos Condit. But if he’s not sure and has a smidge of doubt, it can be a really close fight like Stephen Thompson, Kevlin Gastelum, Rory MacDonald. But I’m confident that Woodley is confident in this fight. I don’t see any place Maia poses a danger. I see Woodley keeping this fight on the feet. A place where Maia is basically a fish out of water. Woodley is going to knock him out and look great.
-Cris Cyborg: There’s going to come a point where some female fighter upsets and beats Cyborg, but it’s not Tonya Evinger. Cyborg’s main weapon, really, is intimidation. All the years I’ve been following the sport, I’ve never seen a fighter that so few want to face. I’ll be surprised if Cyborg doesn’t knock Evinger out in the first round.
-Robbie Lawler: Close, even fight. Fighters are about the same age. But Donald Cerrone getting knocked out by Jorge Masvidal was eye opening for me. Cerrone is a smaller welterweight as he’s been fighting at lightweight and before that, even featherweight. And Masvidal isn’t even a bigger welterweight. He used to fight at 155 lbs. But Lawler is a big welterweight who used to fight at middleweight. I think if Cerrone had problems with Masvidal’s power, he’ll have problems with Lawler’s power. I just watched the Chris Weidman vs Kelvin Gastelum fight last Saturday and there’s a reason why fighters try and cut as much weight as possible. Gastelum was much smaller and it made a difference. I just don’t see Cerrone being able to beat any of the elite guys at 170 lbs and Lawler is as elite as it gets.
-Volkan Oezdemir: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Jimi Manuwa got into the UFC too late into his career. He’s 37 years old. Something I’m not sure everyone is aware of. Manuwa is a power puncher, but not the fastest. And I don’t think his chin is that great. Matter of fact, I think Oezdemir knocks out Manuwa the same way that Alex Gustafsson knocked out Manuwa. With speed and technique. Oezdemir is 27 years and just coming into his prime. And it’s very likely that Oezdemir gets a title shot next year after Gustafsson.
-Jason Knight: Knight really had a coming out party against a very tough opponent in Chas Skelly. Ricardo Lamas is 35 years old. Knight is 25. Every since USADA came in to prevent most PEDs, the UFC has turned into a young man’s sport. Lamas peaked at his title shot against Jose Aldo. He’ll stick around for awhile. But his career is starting to go down the hill. Knight is really young for someone with 5 fights in the UFC already. And if Skelly can’t take Knight down, I doubt Lamas will be able to. So with the fight staying on the feet, Knight will be faster and with more power.
-Aljamain Sterling: Easily the most difficult fight to pick on the card and the bookies agree as the odds are pick em. The big mystery in this fight is not knowing which Renan Barao shows up. The Barao of 2014 and prior when he was a world beater? Or the new Barao post TJ Dillashaw knockout? All things being close to equal, I got to pick the younger, hungrier fighter in Sterling. Plus historically, the vast majority of champions are never the same after they lose the belt. Yes, Barao is only 30 years old, but his body has 38 pro fights or wear and tear. That’s a lot. Close fight. I think Sterling picks up a split decision win.
-Brian Ortega: UPSET SPECIAL 2: This card is so good, Ortega vs Renato Moicano is buried on the prelims. This fight could really headline a Fight Night. Mild upset pick as Ortega is only a +130 in many books. Really surprising line to me. I guess it shows how good the public thinks Jeremy Stephens is. I just see Ortega as the better prospect and has been more impressive in the UFC so far. Both are elite prospects. Yes, the win for Moicano was good for his career. But it was a close fight that could’ve gone either way. Before that, Moicano had another close, split decision win over Zubaira Tukhugov, who I think is overrated. Meanwhile, Ortega has 3 finishes over 3 quality gatekeepers with a 3-0 record. He’s still 26 years old and getting better. So much better that I think Ortega knocks Moicano out.
-Andre Fili: Despite the bright, shiny record of 16-2, Calvin Kattar is a slightly below average prospect. Any of the top prospects he’s fought outside the UFC, he’s won via decision. Fili is 4-3 in the UFC, but only 27 years old and still developing. Fili has finished better fighters than Kattar. Plus, Kattar is fighting on short notice. Fili will roll here.
-Aleksandra Albu: Albu should be a much bigger favorite than -160. Kailin Curran has a 1-4 record in the UFC. Yes, she’s still only 26 years old. She probably is still developing. But Albu has a lot of talent and it’s no accident the UFC signed her with just 1 pro fight. Ton of upside. Me picking Albu has a lot to do with the fact that I think Izabela Badurek (who Albu submitted in the 2nd round in her UFC debut) is better than Curran. I’d be surprised if Albu doesn’t finish the fight.
-Eric Shelton: Very intriguing fight between 2 of the best flyweight prospects in the world. Something I probably wouldn’t have said about Shelton until last year when he submitted Mark Sainci in the 1st round and lost a very close split decision fight to budding contender Alex Pantoja. Shelton is 26 years out and he’s starting to really break out. Jarred Brooks is also an elite prospect. Undefeated. 24 years old. But he hasn’t had that break out moment yet. Every time he’s fought against quality competition, he hasn’t been able to finish. Both fighters have bright futures ahead of them, but I see Shelton as further along in the developmental process. Like it’s possible Brooks has more upside, but he’s not there yet. And plus, this is Brooks debut in the UFC which is tough for virtually everyone. Shelton by decision.
-Drew Dober: To me, this could be the least interesting fight of 2017 so far. But Dober is way too heavy a favorite. One book has him at -370. Josh Burkman has an ugly 1-3 record at 155 lbs in his return to the UFC but the losses have been against quality competition. However, the last 2 loses from Burkman stand out to me that he’s going to have to retire soon. Losing to an unimpressive Zak Ottow. And even worse he was finished by Michal Prazeres who is 6-2 in the UFC, and submitting Burkman was Prazeres first finish in the UFC. Dober has a 3-3 record at lightweight, but has looked better in his last 3 fights. It’s possible he could be getting better at 28 years old, but I’m skeptical. Either way, whatever level Dober is at, it should be enough to get a decision win over Burkman.