-Derek Brunson: I remember watching Brunson years ago and him being a boring fighter, mostly using his wrestling. But since 2015, Brunson has switched up his strategy to try and steamroll fighters and it’s been working with spectacular results, with 5 of Brunson’s last 7 wins coming via first round knockout. Meanwhile, Lyoto Machida is now 39 years old and hasn’t fought in over 2 years. Because of his age and inactivity, I just don’t like Machida’s chances against such a hot fighter like Brunson who’s in his prime. I can picture Machida trying to do what he does most fights, trying to keep distance, feel out Brunson, get his timing and Brunson having none of that, rushing towards Machida and steamrolling him like he has so many other opponents the last couple years. So what I’m saying is we’re looking at another first round knockout for Brunson, folks.
-Colby Covington: Really hard fight to pick. But I give Covington the edge due to his high level wrestling in the fact that I don’t think Demian Maia will be able to get him on the ground. I think Tyron Woodley put together a great blueprint for beating Maia and I expect the fight to go pretty similar. Maia is 39 years old, he was building towards a title fight, got it and lost. It’s hard to imagine Maia being as motivated in this fight as he has been the past few years. So I like Covington by decision.
-Pedro Munhoz: UPSET SPECIAL 1: I’m really excited about this fight, as I think the winner is likely to become a contender in the 135 lb division and possibly be on a path towards a title shot in the next couple years. Really close fight. Both Munhoz and Font have similar profiles in the UFC. Font is 4-1 and Munhoz is 4-2. Font is 30 years old, Munhoz is 31. The thing that motivates me to pick Munhoz in this fight is the close, split decision loss he had against contender Jimmie Rivera. Rivera is steamrolling his way towards a title shot and so far, the fighter closest to beating him has been Munhoz. Both Font and Munhoz have flaws in their game. They both have finishes over lower tier gatekeepers. But I think it will be Munhoz’s experience against top fighters like Rivera and Rafael Assuncao that will be the difference in Munhoz winning via decision.
-Francisco Trinaldo: Not too many fighters like Trinaldo that can still fight at a high level as a 39 year old. In the last couple years, Trinaldo has been beating very good competition in Norman Parke, Chad Laprise and Paul Felder. Trinaldo takes on Jim Miller, who even though he’s 5 years younger at 34, has a lot more fight milelage on his body. I’ve been watching Miller for years and he was last in his prime back in 2014. Since then, he hasn’t been the same. And I’m not buying that this fight is going to stay on the feet. I think Trinaldo can and will take Miller down and will cruise to an easy decision win.
-Jack Hermansson: Great style matchup for Hermansson here against Thiago Santos. Yes, Santos has looked great in his last 2 knockout wins. But if submission guy Eric Spicely is able to take down Santos, I know Hermansson would be able to do it too. Plus Santos is 33 years old. So he’s probably at his ceiling, skill wise. And Hermansson is 29 years old, smack dab in the middle of his prime. Look for Hermansson to get frequent take downs, land ground and pound, and cruise to a decision win.
-John Lineker: Marlon Vera is 24 years old and really seems to be turning the corner in his career coming off a big 1st round submission against Brian Kelleher. But taking on a contender like Lineker is going to be too much, too soon for him. Lineker is not some over the hill guy with a name. He’s 27 years old and coming into his prime. Lineker is 10-3 overall in the UFC, 4-1 at 135 lbs. Of course, the risk in picking Lineker is to assume he makes weight. Which of course has risk. But overall, Lineker is still the better pick. I see Lineker keeping the fight on the feet and having a big power advantage. I’m picking Lineker by decision.
-Niko Price: UPSET SPECIAL 2: On the surface, this fight might seem like a blowout. Vicente Luque is taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. Plus he has a 11-6 record. But it could be sneaky competitive. Luque is 4-2 in the UFC (and since moving down to 170 lbs.). And he’s 25 years old which means he’s probably still developing. But unfortunately for Luque he’s taking on one of the elite prospects at welterweight in Price, who looks like a future title contender. Price is really fast and explosive for the weight class and I expect a 2nd round knockout here.
-Raoni Barcelos: This should be a really close fight. Boston Salmon could be a good prospect but is a bit of an unknown. 26 years old. 5 of his 7 fights have been against low quality competition. And I know the loss against Zac Riley was controversial and a lot of people thought Salmon won, but the reality is that top prospects shouldn’t have close fights with fighters with a 5-3 record like Riley had. However, Salmon did bounce back and beat a very good prospect in Ricky Turcios by decision. Barcelos is taking this fight on short notice, but does have close to 3 weeks to prepare. My only concern is that Barcelos is going to be cutting down to 135 lbs (he’s been fighting at 145 lbs). I’m going to assume that his weight cut goes OK, and putting that aside, Barcelos has the experience in beating plenty of fighters with Salmon’s profile to win. Look for Barcelos to eke out a split decision win here.
-Antonio Carlos Jr: Really good fight. I’ve doubted Carlos Jr before, but not anymore. He seems to really be coming into his own and is very big for middleweight. He’s still a bit one dimension and needs to work on his striking, but his opponent Jack Marshman isn’t anything Carlos Jr hasn’t fought before. Like Carlos Jr could have trouble with some of the more elite fighters in the division that he can’t take down and is forced to stand up and strike with, but Carlos Jr should be able to take down Marshman just fine and we’re probably looking at a 2nd round submission for Carlos Jr.
-Elizeu dos Santos: Easy fight to pick. Max Griffin is a below average prospect. His development outside the UFC was spent taking on journeyman fighters and winning decisions. Not the usual career path for most prospects. I think Griffin’s ceiling is that of a lower tier gatekeeper in the UFC, but he’s not going to beat dos Santos who’s 3-1 in the UFC and has a long track record of beating fighters more talented than Griffin. I like dos Santos by a clean decision.
-Jared Gordon: In Gordon’s last fight, I really though Michel Quinones was going to beat him. But what happened was Gordon took a big step up in development and knocked Quinones out in the 2nd round. Really impressed me. Meanwhile Hacran Dias is a fighter who wasn’t able to live up to is top prospect hype when he signed with the UFC. Has a 3-4 record and coming off a loss to Andre Fili. I see Gordon winning this fight fairly easily because Dias has problems when he fights with someone he can’t take down and outwrestle. Gordon will be able to keep this fight on the feet and should cruise to a decision win.
-Deiveson Figueiredo: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Last time out, Jarred Brooks did beat a very good fighter in Eric Shelton, via the close split decision variety. And yes, I do think Brooks will turn out to be really good as he’s only 24 years old. But I can’t pick him to win this fight against Figueiredo because Brooks is so early in the development process. Plus Figueiredo is a prospect that’s even better than Shelton. Undefeated. 29 years old in his prime. And a signature knockout win over Denis Fontes, who will probably soon be in the UFC. Figueiredo hasn’t fought the best competition, but how he looked against Fontes and also Marco Beltran, validates that he hasn’t looked good just because he’s fighting below average fighters. Brooks will be very fast in this fight, but Figueiredo is well rounded and can finish the fight from anywhere, but I think a decision win from Figueiredo is more likely.
-Marcelo Golm: Really difficult fight to pick because of how unknown Golm is. UFC just signed him to fight on short notice. 25 years old. 5-0. 5 first round knockouts. Looks like a great prospect, right? Well, the problem is that Golm’s 5 opponents combined only have 2 wins. Yes, lol, that’s right. Only 2 wins between the 5 fighters. So Golm has faced very poor competition and has never fought quality competition before. So usually, I’d lean against picking a fighter like Golm. But his opponent Christian Colombo isn’t that appealing either. He’s 37 years old. Has 0 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw in the UFC. And Colombo’s 2 UFC fights were not against top competition. They have UFC records of 0-1-1 and 2-3. Colombo failed to beat either of them. So this fight is a big mystery, but I’m going to pick Golm to win by decision partly because of his youth, but mostly because I think so poorly of Colombo.