
-Donald Cerrone: Easy fight to pick. Darren Till isn’t ready for this fight. Yes, he’s undefeated at 15-0 and 24 years old. Yes, it’s even possible he could be a future champion. But he’s not far enough along yet in his development to beat a guy like Cerrone. Till’s debut knocking out Wendell Marques was impressive, but then, he fought Nicolas Dalby to a draw. And the significance of not being able to even beat Dalby by decision is that Zak Cummings and Peter Sobotta fought Dalby right after Till and they had no problem beating Dalby. Then Till wasn’t able to finish fellow prospects Jessin Ayari and Bojan Velickovic. Now, when a young fighter is not able to finish opponents fellow prospects and fellow young fighters, it’s a sign they’re not ready for a step up in competition. I’m decently confident Till will develop more power and sharpen his other skills to where he’s able to finish the Ayari’s and Velickovic’s of the UFC, but that’s not where he’s at right now and I see Cerrone having no problem knocking Till out in the 1st round. Too much, too soon for Till.
-Karolina Kowalkiewicz: Kowalkiewicz shouldn’t have any problem cruising to a decision in this fight. She’s only lost to 2 of the 3 best female strawweights in the world in UFC champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha. Kowalkiewicz’s skills are just in another realm than opponent Jodie Esquibel, who isn’t a bad fighter. She’s 7-2 outside the UFC. 31 years old. But she’s only won 3 out of her last 5 fights. And only has 1 finish in her 9 fight career. I just don’t see how Esquibel poses a threat anywhere. I think Kowalkiewicz will stay on the outside, has better technical striking and will outpoint Esquibel for the decision win.
-Jan Blachowicz: UPSET SPECIAL 1: It’s a shame Blachowicz got into the UFC so late in his career. He’s 34 years old and it’s obvious his skills are starting to regress. He does have a 2-4 record in the UFC, but he’s lost to some of the best of the best like Alex Gustafsson, Jimi Manuwa, etc. His opponent Devin Clark is one of the easier fights Blachowicz has had in the UFC thus far and I do think Blachowicz is still in a higher tier of skill. Clark has a so-so resume outside the UFC. Is 2-1 in the UFC so far, losing to middleweight Alex Nicholson who the UFC just released (and Clark is a light heavyweight). And Clark has a decision win over 1-2 Josh Stansbury and a decision win over 2-3 Jake Collier. Blachowicz has beaten lots of guys with Clark’s profile over the years and I don’t think this fight will be any different for him and I like Blachowicz by decision.
-Oskar Piechota: This will be Jonathan Wilson’s first fight at 185 lbs. Had a 1-2 UFC record at 205 lbs. So it’s possible that Wilson looks better at the lower weight. But he’s taking on a top prospect in Piechota who is making his UFC debut, but has experience beating fighters with a way better resume than Wilson in Jason Radcliffe and Mattia Schiavolin. Wilson’s resume before signing with the UFC was poor as he only fought low quality competition. So I think Piechota’s experience is going to play a key factor in him getting the decision win.
-Marcin Held: Really interesting fight. Held used to be one of the bright, young stars at 155 lbs when he signed with the UFC with a 22-4 record and being 24 years old. But he’s 0-3 to start his UFC career losing to veterans Joe Lauzon and Diego Sanchez. Plus losing to an average prospect in Damir Hadzovic. It’s really hard for fighters to come back from losing 3 in a row in the UFC and have no clue what version of Held will show up. But I have to pick him because there’s even less reasons to think his opponent Nasrat Haqparast is going to win. Haqparast is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice and has fought a who’s who of tomato cans, although he did pull off a nice win over a legit prospect in Ruslan Kalyniuk in his last fight. Haqparast could have a bright future, he’s 22 years old. But Held is going to be a really steep step up in competition for Haqparast and he’s doing it on short notice. This is by far the perfect time for Held to get back on track and get his mojo back. I like Held by 2nd round submission.
-Adam Wieczorek: This fight just got easier to pick with Anthony Hamilton replacing Dmitry Smoliakov to fight elite, top heavyweight prospect Adam Wieczorek. Hamilton just fought close to a month ago. He’s lost 3 in a row. And he’s 37 years old. And he’s taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. I’m almost finished with my heavyweight prospect rankings and I have Wieczorek clocking in ranked #7 on my list. This is a showcase fight for Wieczorek in his home country of Poland and I see a first round knockout here.
-Brian Kelleher: I believe in Kelleher’s career renaissance. Losing to Marlon Vera in his last fight doesn’t bring his stock down too much as Vera is emerging as a possible title contender. Meanwhile Damian Stasiak is not that great a prospect. Has a 2-2 record in the UFC so far. But the loss against Yaotzin Meza is especially troubling to me as Meza has gone 2-4 in the UFC and Stasiak was 1 of Meza’s only 2 wins. I think Kelleher has no problem catching Stasiak in a submission, no later than the 2nd round.
-Ramazan Emeev: This fight got a whole lot more interesting with Trevor Smith pulling out of this fight and Sam Alvey taking his place. Alvey is one of the better gatekeepers in the UFC at 185 lbs with a 8-4 record. But there’s a clear blueprint to beating Alvey as shown in his loses to Elias Theodorou and Thales Leites. Alvey’s weakness is wrestling and grappling. And that’s exactly what Emeev does well. While Emeev is not really a top prospect, his skills are probably on par with Elias Theodorou. And to make matters worse for Alvey, he is taking this fight on a week and a half’s notice. Alvey will stick around in the UFC for a few more years, but due to not being able to improve his wrestling, Emeev will cruise to a decision here.
-Andre Fili: Fili has literally alternated wins and losses in his first 8 UFC fights with a 4-4 record here. But he’s 27 years old, coming into his prime, so there could be some more good things to come from Fili. His opponent Artem Lobov has done better than most expected in the UFC thus far. Lobov signed with the UFC with a 11-10 record, but has done decent in the UFC in beating Chris Avila and even more impressively, Teruto Ishihara. Stylistically though, I don’t see Lobov posing a threat. He can win in brawls, but Fili is by far quicker and the more technical striker. I see Fili really playing things safe here, keeping distance and outpointing Lobov in a decision win.
-Warlley Alves: This fight was always planned to be a bounce back for Alves, who has the potential of being a title contender at 170 lbs. Alves started his UFC career 4-0, but it’s been revealed that Alves has a weakness in his game where he can be taken down and controlled by wrestlers, like how he lost to Bryan Barbarena and Kamaru Usman. Originally Alves was going to fight ju-jitsu vet Jim Wallhead, who wouldn’t have posed the same type of wrestling threat, but he’s dropped out. Now Alves is fighting a below average prospect in Salim Touahri on 6 days notice. Touahri’s profile is that almost all of his fights have been against either pro debuting fighters or fighters with a losing record. And anytime Touahri has taken a step up in competition, he struggles. The fight against Tomasz Romanowski was especially troubling, as Romanowski came into that fight with a 5-4 record and Touahri barely squeaked out a majority decision win. So there’s just no way Touahri comes in and upsets Alves on 6 days notice. This is as much of a lock as there is in a fight. Alves by 1st round knockout.
-Aspen Ladd: Really close fight that could go either way between Ladd and Lina Lansberg. Both resumes are pretty similar. Ladd being 7-1, Lansberg 7-2. But the big difference for me is the age difference of Ladd being 22 years old and Lansberg being 35. Meaning that Lansberg might be just as good as she was in her last fight but maybe a step slower. And very likely that Ladd will be better than her last fight. Plus Ladd has already demonstrated that she can beat and finish very good opponents like Amanda Bobby Cooper and Sijara Eubanks. But I think the development curve is a big reason why Ladd will be able to outpoint Lansberg in a decision.
-Felipe Arantes: UPSET SPECIAL 2: This is one of the more unpredictable fights I’ve prognosticated on in awhile. Arantes has been fighting at 135 lbs lately. His opponent Josh Emmett has been fighting at 155 lbs. But this fight is happening at 145 lbs. Arantes is 5-4 in the UFC and 3-3 at 145 lbs. Emmett hasn’t fought at 145 lbs yet in the UFC but is 2-1 at 155 lbs. Arantes is a lower tier gatekeeper. He has some nice wins on his record over Godofredo Pepey, Maximo Blanco, and Yves Jabouin. But me picking Arantes had more to do with what I think of Emmett. Emmett’s resume outside the UFC is not great. He doesn’t have any wins over quality opponents. He failed to finish multiple below average fighters. Emmett is a wrestler and has already had 3 really close fights in the UFC so far that haven’t made him stand out. So expect another close one. I’m picking Arantes to edge out Emmett in a split decision.