-Georges St. Pierre: It was March of 2007. I remember it well. 44 year old Randy Couture came out of retirement to upset heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia. It was one of the most exciting fights I’ve seen in the UFC. And how did Couture pull off the upset at such an old age? Sylvia couldn’t defend Couture’s takedowns. And I see the GSP vs. Michael Bisping fight going the same way. Let’s not forget what a monumental upset it was for Bisping to knockout Luke Rockhold. And let us not forget that Bisping’s last 3 wins, besides Rockhold, he barely squeaked out decision wins. And not over young, up and coming monsters. But he barely squeaked out wins over the likes of Dan Henderson, Anderson Silva, and Thales Leites. All 3 fighters in the twilight of their careers. Bisping is not a dominant champion by any means. And let us not forget that Bisping is the older fighter being 38 years old and GSP being 36 years old. Let us not forget that Bisping has 10 more pro fights wearing down his body that GSP. And let us not forget how dominant GSP had been, losing only twice in his whole career. His first title shot back in 2004 against Matt Hughes and what’s considered the greatest upset in UFC history, against Matt Serra back in 2007. Yes, GSP is moving up to 185 lbs for the first time in his career. But that might end up being the weight class he sticks in. Keep in mind when fighters age, it’s harder for their bodies to cut weight like they used to. Even if GSP wins, it’s no lock that he wants to make weight at 170 lb. And it’s not always a bad thing for fighters to have a long break to have a mental vacation from the grind and to let nagging injuries heal up. The only way Bisping wins this fight is if he can keep it on the feet, but I just don’t see that happening. GSP was and I think still is the best wrestler in the UFC. And I just can’t see Bisping not be able to take him down, even at a bigger weight class. I don’t see this as a close fight. Bisping is not a young, dominant champion. Bisping is 38 years old and outside of knocking out Rockhold hasn’t looked great. I see GSP cruising to a decision win.
-Cody Garbrandt: Big time opportunity for Garbrandt to have a coming out party fighting right before GSP. Dana White even said it himself, that he thinks Garbrandt is the UFC’s next big star after Conor McGregor and I couldn’t agree more. Garbrandt is 26 years old. 11-0 overall. 6-0 in the UFC. 4 of the 6 wins have come via knockout. I just don’t see how TJ Dillashaw can bring anything different to the table than Dominick Cruz did. Dillashaw and Cruz are both very similar fighters and as such, when they fought, Cruz eked out a close, split decision win. Cruz had nothing for Garbrandt. And I can’t see how a fighter who is a lesser version of Cruz fares any better. Main question here is whether Garbrandt can knock out Dillashaw and I think he can. I like Garbrandt by 2nd round knockout.
-Joanna Jedrzejczyk: The biggest question in this fight is how much has Rose Namajunas developed since her last fight? She’s 25 years old. Still getting better. She especially turned the corner a couple years ago in her fight against Angela Hill where she was coming off 2 losses in a row. Since then, she’s won 4 out of her last 5 fights. But unfortunately for her, she’s fighting one of the best pound for pound fighters in all of MMA. UFC has Jedrzejczyk ranked #7 on the pound for pound list but in my opinion, she should be #3 behind Demetrius Johnson and Conor McGregor. In any case, just last year Namajunas lost to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who is a very similar fighter to Jedrzejczyk. That’s 2 fights ago for Namajunas. And Jedrzejczyk is a way better version of Kowalkiewicz. So I’m just skeptical that Namajunas has made the adjustments. Namajunas’ best hope is going to be to somehow catch up to the much faster Jedrzejczyk, get a hold of her, and take her down and keep her there. But if Namajunas couldn’t even do that to Kowalkiewicz, how is she going to execute that game plan against the champ? This fight is going to go pretty the same as most of Jedrzejczyk’s title defenses, where she keeps the fight on the feet and picks her opponent apart. Main question is whether Jedrzejczyk finishes the fight. I’m going to pick a decision win.
-Stephen Thompson: Question: Off the top of your head, who do you think is older? Thompson or Jorge Masvidal? I guessed Masvidal, easy. But turns out Thompson is 34 years old! Masvidal is only 32. Crazy. And I’m supposed to be an expert haha. Masvidal’s been in the fight game forever, yet Thompson only has 16 pro MMA fights. I’m pretty comfortable picking Thompson here. Masvidal is very good upper-tier gatekeeper, but there’s a reason why he has 12 losses. It’s because there’s a clear blueprint to beating Masvidal and he hasn’t fixed his flaws. The way opponents beat him is by staying on the outside, having more technical striking, and outpointing him. I see Thompson having no problem rinsing and repeating here. Thompson’s striking is way more advanced. Plus he’s a lot bigger than Masvidal too as Masvidal sometimes fights at 155 lbs. Masvidal is really durable, so I don’t think Thompson is going to be too aggressive to trying to finish and will just cruise to a decision win here.
-Paulo Borrachinha: This is one of those fights where the UFC is using a fighter with name value like Johny Hendricks to put over, to build up a new, young, up-and-coming fighter like Borrachinha. Vast majority of champions, when they lose their belt, they’re never the same, and very rarely to do they regain their title. Same for Hendricks who has looked like a shell of his former self the past couple years. Hendricks has lost the last 4 out of 5 fights and the only fighter he beat was Hector Lombard, who has been in an even bigger tailspin than Hendricks. Borrachinha is an elite prospect. 2-0 in the UFC so far. 2 knockouts. 26 years old. Undefeated 10-0 record overall. The class of prospect I’d put Borrachinha in, is possible champion, in the next 2-3 years. The UFC booked this fight for the pay per view main card so Borrachinha could have a coming out party and get noticed, so obviously I’m picking Boarrchinha. Via 1st round knockout.
-Joseph Duffy: Coin flip of a fight right here with Duffy vs. James Vick. Vick has a 7-1 UFC record and is 30 years old. Duffy has a 4-1 UFC record, 29 years old and is most famous for a submission win over Conor McGregor back in 2010 before both were signed to the UFC. I’ve gone back and forth on who to pick in this fight, but I give a slight edge in how he’s been way more consistent in finishing his fights than Vick. Which shows his skills are probably on a higher level. Also, I thought Duffy did better than Vick when facing their toughest opponents. That Duffy did better in a decision loss to contender Dustin Poirier than Vick did getting knocked out by Beneil Dariush. And Dariush’s stock has been going down with him not being able to defeat journeyman Evan Dunham. Duffy is easily the toughest fight Vick has ever had and he doesn’t have that big fight experience, whereas Duffy has that in his fight with Poirier. These reasons are small and slight, but I have to pick someone and I’m going with Duffy via decision.
-Walt Harris: Harris is a really interesting fighter in the sense that even though he’s 34 years old, he’s clearly getting better every fight with only 16 pro bouts on his resume. His main weakness he’s been getting better has been against opponents that clinch with him, push him against the fence, take him down, etc. Harris’ opponent Mark Godbeer is an average prospect. Got into the UFC a little late, being he’s 33 years old. 1-1 record in the UFC so far. But based largely on how Harris has looked in his last couple fights (minus losing to Fabricio Werdum last time out), I don’t see Godbeer bringing anything to the table that is going to slow Harris’ momentum up the heavyweight ladder. I like Harris by 2nd round knockout.
-Ion Cutelaba: Should be one of the more exciting fights on the card. Cutelaba looked great in his last fight, but has shown that he can be beat if his opponent can weather the first round barrage from Cutelaba, get him in the clinch and or take him down. But Cutelaba is only 23 years old and should get better in those areas. Meanwhile, his opponent Michal Oleksiejczuk, has struggled beating quality competition. Earlier in Oleksiejczuk’s career, he got finished by a 2-1 fighter and 4-4 fighter. He’s mostly beaten older journeyman types and the only decent opponent he beat came in his last fight, a knockout over Riccardo Nosiglia. Oleksiejczuk does have youth on his side as he’s only 22 years old, but he’s way behind Cutelaba on the development curve. I expect Cutelaba to come into this fight with more experience and confidence and I don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to be able to survive the 1st round barrage Cutelaba throws at him. 1st round knockout.
-Mickey Gall: Gall is one of the more famous 4-0 MMA fighters out there as usually it takes fighters more than 2 pro fights to reach the UFC. But Gall appears to be a legit prospect who finished a fellow elite prospect in Sage Northcutt. All 4 of Gall’s wins have come via a take down and rear naked choke, so I have a little concern for what Gall would do if he takes on a fighter that can keep the fight on the feet. But Randy Brown is not that dude. And based on Brown’s fight with Michael Graves last year, Brown can be taken down and submitted, and ironically, Graves did finish Brown with a rear naked choke. Looks like the UFC matched up Gall pretty well to win here and I like Gall to win by a 2nd round submission.
-Curtis Blaydes: It is amazing what Alexey Oleynik has been able to do at such an old age such as upsetting Travis Browne. But Blaydes is a horrible style matchup for him. As shown last year in Oleynik’s fight with Daniel Omielanczuk, Oleynik struggles when he isn’t able to outgrapple his opponent or complete a takedown. Well, Blaydes is a younger, stronger version of Omielanczuk as evidenced by Blaydes actually beating Omielanczuk in his last fight. Main question for me is whether or not Blaydes can finish this fight or if he plays it safe. For him to become the contender a lot of people think the 26 year old can be, he needs to finish someone like Oleynik.
-Ovince St. Preux: This spot on the card got way more interesting as orginally Patrick Cummins was going to take on Corey Anderson, but Cummins dropped out due to staph and St. Preux has stepped in. St. Preux has done very well in the UFC as being the gatekeeper to the elite of the 205 lb division. St. Preux has literally only lost to light heavyweights ranked within the top 5. Everybody else, he’s beat. Anderson is a very good fighter himself with a 6-3 record in the UFC, but he’s shown not to have the best chin and is subject to getting knocked out by fighters with great striking and power. Which is exactly the type of fighter St. Preux is. So I’m expecting St. Preux to knock Anderson out in the 1st round.
-Ricardo Lucas Ramos: I’m pretty comfortable picking Ramos here for a lot of reasons. First, Ramos is an elite prospect, probably in the top 5, at 135 lbs. He’s 22 years old. And before he signed with the UFC, he routinely fought solid prospect after solid prospect with a 9-1 record. And most of those quality fighters Ramos took on, he finished them. Ramos is exactly the type of prospect that often becomes a contender in the UFC and I’d bet at the very least you see him in a title fight in about 3-4 years from now. Meanwhile, Aiemann Zahabi has fought the exact opposite type of competition, mostly fighters with losing records. And even though Zahabi is 1-0 in the UFC, he beat one of the poorest 135 lb fighters in the division in Reginaldo Vieira. And in actuality, Ramos has beat a lot more fighters outside the UFC that are better than Vieira. Because of Ramos’ experience, Zahabi will offer nothing he hasn’t seen before and should cruise to a decision win.