-Max Holloway: I’m disappointed that the UFC is having Jose Aldo get this title fight instead of Cub Swanson, after Frankie Edgar dropped out. The vast majority of the time. I’m talking like 19 out of 20 fights, when an imcumbent champion loses the belt to the younger, up and comer, that the rematch not only goes the same way, but is even more devastating. Chris Weidman vs Anderson Silva 2. Frankie Edgar vs BJ Penn 2. Anderson Silva vs Rich Franklin 2. GSP vs Matt Hughes 3. Urijah Faber vs Mike Brown 2. I could go on and on. We’re looking at a first round knockout for Holloway folks because it’s very likely Aldo is going into this fight not believing he can win.
-Francis Ngannou: I’ve said for a couple years now that Ngannou is going to become heavyweight champion in the UFC and nothing has changed. Ngannou has been consistent in not only knocking out opponents in scary fashion, but also has the ability to submit a fighter as evidenced in his kimura win over Anthony Hamilton. Yes, Alistair Overeem is easily the toughest test that Ngannou has taken on, but Overeem is beatable, although he has been noticeably better the past few years since he started training at Jackson-Wink. I see this fight playing out very similar to how Overeem’s fight with Miocic went. Where Miocic got the best of Overeem in a firefight and knocked him out. Miocic is leading the new era of heavyweights in the UFC and I consider Ngannou to be in that tier as well. I expect Ngannou to knockout Overeem in the first round, albeit with less trouble than Miocic had.
-Justin Gaetheje: Gaetheje is the real deal. 29 years old. Undefeated at 18-0. And the way he starched and knocked out Michael Johnson in his debut was so impressive. Alvarez is still a top guy at 155 lbs, but Gaetheje is going to have no problem picking Alvarez apart on the feet. Avoiding takedowns. I see Gaetheje knocking out Alvarez in the 2nd round and will start building towards a money fight with Conor McGregor, likely in 2019.
-Sergio Pettis: This pick has everything to do with momentum. Yes, Henry Cejudo is coming off the biggest win of his career, a knockout over title contender Wilson Reis. But a closer look at Cejudo’s resume in the UFC calls in to question how good he really is. He did lose a split decision to Joseph Benavidez. But he lost. He squeaked out a split decision win over Jussier da Silva. Besides that, his biggest win was a decision win against Chris Cariaso, who retired one fight after he lost to Cejudo. Meanwhile Pettis is 4-0 in the UFC at 125 lbs. And he completed outclassed an elite fighter in Brandon Moreno in his last fight. Biggest thing, Pettis is still only 24 years old. That’s crazy young for him having 18 pro fights. Cejudo is 30 years old. In his prime and near the end of his development. It’s very likely we’re going to see a better version of Pettis than we did in his last fight. And I think he’ll keep the fight at distance, avoid the takedowns, and will outstrike Cejudo to take a hard fought decision win.
-Tecia Torres: I expect Torres to win this in typical Torres fashion, which is keep the fight on the outside. Circle a lot. Get in and get out with strikes. She’s going to be too fast for Waterson to get a hold of her and try and grapple her. And I expect Torres to win the strike exchanges. I don’t see any other outcome than Torres cruising to a decision win.
-Charles Oliveira: This is the toughest fight to pick on the card. At first glance, I’d say Oliveira wins this fight all day. He does have a 10-7 UFC record which isn’t the greatest, but these are the fighters he’s lost to: Ricardo Lamas, Anthony Pettis, Max Holloway, Frankie Edgar, etc. He’s only lost to the very best in the division. Oliveira’s 10 wins, 9 of them have come via submission. Only 1 decision win. Paul Felder? He has a 6-3 UFC record with losses to Francisco Trinaldo and Ross Pearson in the last couple years. So on the surface, this is Oliveira all the way. But the way Felder won his last fight against a very good Stevie Ray gives me pause. Maybe Felder at 32 years old is breaking out at an older age. It’s possible. But not a big enough sample size for me to pick Felder. The other 8 fights Felder has had probably show a truer portrait of where he’s at as a fighter. A fighter that is no different than many of the others Oliveira has submitted along the way, so I like a 1st round Oliveira submission here.
-Alex Oliveira: Yancy Medeiros has definitely looked like a different fighter at 170 lbs. He went 3-4 in the UFC at 155 lbs, but since moving up in weight, he’s got 2 finishes in 2 fights over Erick Silva and Sean Spencer. Oliveira has been building himself up as a possible title contender with a 7-2 record and after bouncing back and forth between 170 lbs and 155 lbs, but has started to really find a home at 170 lbs. Oliveira has really been breaking out over his last 2 wins over upper tier gatekeepers Ryan LaFlare and Tim Means. I see this fight playing out on the feet and see Oliveira catching Medeiros in the firefight. 2nd round knockout.
-Drakkar Klose: It’s likely casual fans have never heard of Klose and David Teymur, but they will pretty soon. Especially the winner of this fight. Both are two of the best up and comers at 155 lbs. I got to give the edge though to Klose due to how he already dealt with a very dangerous striker in Mark Diakiese. I feel like Klose’s gameplan with Teymur, also being a dangerous striker, will be very similar where Klose is able to neutralize the striking by mixing in wrestling and grappling. Getting a few takedowns, to help Klose take the decision win.
-Felice Herrig: Cortney Casey-Sanchez has really been improving and she’s won 3 of her last 4 fights, including beating really good competition in Jessica Aguilar and Randa Markos. But Herrig has been on an even bigger role beating elite prospects in Alexa Grasso and Justine Kish. Herrig is way more experienced and will have a smart game plan and will take the decision.
-Abdul Razak Alhassan: I’m really confused on why the UFC signed Sabah Homasi, who had a 11-5 record. Homasi got knocked out in his UFC debut against Tim Means and I expect the same result here. Alhassan had 7 first round knockouts in a row, including his UFC debut. But then got exposed a little bit as having a flaw in wrestling and grappling when he lost to gatekeeper Omari Akhmedov. I expect Alhassan to win by first round knockout as Homasi is pretty similar to other opponents Alhassan has knocked out over his career.
-Dominick Reyes: I rate Dominick Reyes as THE #1 205 lb prospect in the UFC right now. And he looked downright scary in his UFC debut demolition over Joachim Christensen. 27 years old. Undefeated at 7-0. Jeremy Kimball is a decent prospect, despite the 15-6 record. 26 years old. But he loses so many times for a reason. And if Marcos Pezao can knockout Kimball in 2 minutes, I’m betting that Reyes can do the same in less than that.
-Justin Willis: Allen Crowder is a pretty generic heavyweight. He has a 9-2 record but has feasted on tomato cans. The two toughest opponents he’s fought, he lost to, including Ryan Pokryfky who now has a 5-4 record. Willis is 1-0 in the UFC, is early in his development with only 6 pro fights, but has already beaten 2 fighters in Juliano Coutinho and James Mulheron who are better than Crowder. I like Willis by 1st round knockout.
-Amanda Bobby-Cooper: Not sure why Angela Magana is getting another UFC fight. She’s 0-2 in the UFC. Has a 11-8 record. Lost 4 in a row, including a loss outside the UFC to Stephanie Eggink, who isn’t that great. And Magana is 34 years old, with no further development. Bobby-Cooper on the other hand is 26 years old. 3-2 in the UFC if you count the Ultimate Fighter wins. And has only lost to 2 of the most elite 115 lb prospects in the division in Cynthia Calvillo and Tatiana Suarez. The UFC made this fight to get Bobby-Cooper back on track and I see her getting a 2nd round submission.