Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Rodriguez, Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Michael Page, Neil Magny, Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over Geoff Neal.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Carlos Prates
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Neil Magny, Jingliang Li, Charlie Radtke, Trevin Giles, an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Machado Garry by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Machado Garry -250
Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-8 at 205 lbs. 11-11 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Vitor Petrino, Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Zhang Mingyang
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendson Ribeiro, a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Smith has been wildly inconsistent the past couple years. Being that this is his retirement fight, we could see further regression in his tools.
Chris’ Pick: Mingyang by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mingyang -135
Giga Chikadze vs David Onama
- Giga Chikadze
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson. Beat Alex Caceres, Omar Morales. Split decision wins over Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- David Onama
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Nate Landwehr.
- Key Wins: Submitted Garrett Armfield. Knocked out Gabriel Santos, a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Roberto Romero, Jonathan Pearce, and Gabriel Benitez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
After Chikadze’s striking was close to equal with Arnold Allen, I’m finally ready to elevate his striking grade to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Onama by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Onama -125
Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 185 lbs. 10-3 overall.
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski, Danny Roberts. Submitted Ihor Potieria, Michel Oleksiejczuk and an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Abus Magomedov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Stolztfus, Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted Brunno Ferreira and a 12-0 striker. Beat Warlley Alves.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Magomedov’s striking is getting close to a 70, but I haven’t seen enough yet.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -125
Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby
- Randy Brown
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Bryan Battle.
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Muslim Salikhov and Bryan Barbarena. Beat Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Wellington Turman, Francisco Trinaldo, and Mickey Gall. Split decision over Khaos Williams.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nicolas Dalby
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Muslim Salikhov, Claudio Silva, Daniel Rodriguez, and Alex Oliveira. Split decisions over Warlley Alves and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Brown by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brown -250
Ikram Aliskerov vs Andre Muniz
- Ikram Aliskerov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Warlley Alves, Phil Hawes, and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Submitted Mario Sousa, Dennis Tiuliulin, and an 11-3 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Eryk Anders, Jacare Souza, Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker, and a 6-0 striker. Beat Uriah Hall and an 8-2 grappler. Split decision over Jun Yong Park
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Muniz by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Muniz -200
Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-8 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Su Mudaerji, Louis Smolka, and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jimmy Flick
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-2 fighter and a 12-5 grappler. Lost to a 4-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Malcolm Gordon, Cody Durden, a 6-0 grappler, a 10-1 grappler and a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Schnell by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Schnell -300
Evan Elder vs Gauge Young
- Evan Elder
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Darrius Flowers. Beat Genaro Valdez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Gauge Young
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Elder by decision.
Chris Gutierrez vs John Castaneda
- Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa and Vince Morales. Beat Quang Le, Alateng Heili, and Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- John Castaneda
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Miles Johns. Beat Kyung Ho Kang, Muin Gafurov, and a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Gutierrez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gutierrez -500
Da’Mon Blackshear vs Heili Alateng
- Da’Mon Blackshear
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luan Lacerda. Submitted Cody Gibson, Cody Stamann, Jose Johnson, Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Heili Alateng
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Gustavo Lopez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Croom and a 5-1 striker. Beat Kleydson Rodrigues, Chad Anheliger, and Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
It’s possible Heili improved his wrestling to a 65, but more likely Rodrigues’ wrestling is a 55 and is why Heili out classed him on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blackshear -400
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Cameron Saaiman
- Malcolm Wellmaker
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-2 striker and a 5-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Cameron Saaiman
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell, a 6-0 grappler, and well rounded 5-1 fighter. Majority decision over Mana Martinez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I know the market is higher than me on Wellmaker and that’s okay. Wellmaker got that big 2 minute KO on the Contender, but I wasn’t as impressed watching him before that. Of course I could be wrong being that fighters do sometimes make big improvements going into the Contender and after the Contender. I’m very confident Christian Rodriguez has 65 striking. And Saaiman’s strikes were close to equal vs Rodriguez. But then Saaiman fights Payton Talbott and Talbott out strikes him 54 to 30. I’m convinced Talbott’s striking is only a 65. So I think what happened with Saaiman in the Talbott fight is that Saaiman got hurt early in the 1st round in their fight and couldn’t recover. So, I could be wrong, but I think Saaiman’s striking as a 65 is most plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Saaiman by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Saaiman -300
Jaqueline Amorim vs Polyana Viana
- Jaqueline Amorim
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Vanessa Demopoulos, Cory McKenna. Knocked out Montserrat Conejo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Polyana Viana
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Veronica Macedo. Split decision loss to Hannah Cifers.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jinh Yu Frey and Amanda Ribas back in 2015. Submitted Mallory Martin and Emily Whitmire.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above (55)
Amorim and Gillian Robertson both have 70 grappling. I see Amorim having no problem doing the same thing Robertson did to Viana.
Chris’ Pick: Amorim by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Amorim -600
Timmy Cuamba vs Roberto Romero
- Timmy Cuamba
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Roberto Romero
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-4-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 10-2 grappler. Split decision over a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
David Onama closed as a -1300 favorite over Romero, who was fighting on short notice. But Romero vastly outperformed the market as the striking was close to equal. Really impressive. Cuamba’s striking is close to a 65 for me, but not quite there.
Chris’ Pick: Romero by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Romero -125
Chelsea Chandler vs Joselyne Edwards
- Chelsea Chandler
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julija Stoliarenko and a 3-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Josiane Nunes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tamires Vidal, an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision wins over Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Chandler by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chandler -135