Sandhagen vs Figueiredo, Nickal vs de Ridder, Ponzinibbio vs Rodriguez Fight Picks – May 3, 2025

Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo

• Cory Sandhagen
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 10-4
• Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Rob Font, Yadong Song, and Raphael Assuncao. Split decision wins over Marlon Vera and John Lineker.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

• Deiveson Figueiredo  
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 3-1 at 135 lbs. 13-3-1 overall.
• Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Cody Garbrandt, Alex Perez, and Tim Elliott. Beat Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sandhagen -250

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Bo Nickal vs Reinier de Ridder

• Bo Nickal
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 6-0
• Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Jamie Pickett, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out Valentine Woodburn. Beat Paul Craig.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Reinier de Ridder
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 19-2
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Holland, Gerald Meerschaert, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, a 17-1 grappler, and a well rounded 23-4 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 30-6 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Nickal by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nickal -125

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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Daniel Rodriguez

• Santiago Ponzinibbio
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 12-7
• Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov, Michel Pereira, and Geoff Neal.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, Alex Morono, Gunnar Nelson, and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Daniel Rodriguez
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 8-4
• Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker. Split decision over Alex Morno and Jingliang Li.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ponzinibbio -135

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Montel Jackson vs Daniel Marcos

• Montel Jackson
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 9-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Da’Mon Blackshear and Rani Yahya. Beat Julio Arce, JP Buys, and Felipe Corales.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Daniel Marcos
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 5-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Saimon Oliveira and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat John Castaneda, a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Adrian Yanez and Davey Grant.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Marcos by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Marcos -125

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Cameron Smotherman vs Serhiy Sidey

• Cameron Smotherman
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 12-4
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Beat Jake Hadley. Split decision win over a well rounded 2-1 fighter.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Serhiy Sidey
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 11-2
• UFC Record: 12-1
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ramon Tavares.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Ramon Taveras and a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Split decision over Garrett Armfield.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

I wasn’t the only one thinking Hadley was going to easily beat Smotherman as Hadley closed as a -535 favorite. But amazingly, Smotherman out struck Hadley 96 to 59. Truly stunning to how much Smotherman improved since he was on the Contender in 2023.

Chris’ Pick: Smotherman by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smotherman -250

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Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones

• Jeremy Stephens
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 15-18
• Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett. Beat Darren Elkins.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Mason Jones
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 15-2
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 6-2 grappler, and a 12-1 wrestler. Beat David Onama.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

I could be over rating Jones’ wrestling, could be a 65 tool, but more likely that it’s a 70.

Chris’ Pick: Jones by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jones -200

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Miesha Tate vs Yana Santos

• Miesha Tate
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 7-6
• Key Wins: Submitted Julia Avila and Holly Holm. Knocked out Marion Reneau. Majority decision over Sara McMann.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Yana Santos
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 5-4 at 135 lbs.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Karol Rosa.
• Key Wins: Beat Chelsea Chandler, Ketlen Vieira, Marion Reneau, and Lina Lansberg.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -175

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Ryan Loder vs Azamat Bekoev

• Ryan Loder
• Age: 33
• Pro Record: 7-1
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Robert Valentin and an 8-3 grappler. Beat a 5-0 wrestler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Azamat Bekoev
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 19-3
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Zachary Reese. Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Split decision over Dylan Budka.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Bekoev by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bekoev -200

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Marina Rodriguez vs Gillian Robertson

• Marina Rodriguez
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 8-5-2
• Key Losses: Split decision losses to Iasmin Lucindo, Jessica Andrade, and Carla Esparza
• Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Xiaonan Yan.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Gillian Robertson
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 4-1 at 115 lbs. 12-7 overall.
• Key Wins: Submitted Piera Rodriguez, Mariya Agapova, Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Polyana Viana and Sarah Frota. Beat Luana Pinheiro, Michelle Waterson-Gomez, and Poliana Botelho.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Robertson -135

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Gaston Bolanos vs Quang Le

• Gaston Bolanos
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 8-4
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 6-3 fighter. Beat Cortavious Romious.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Quang Le
• Age: 33
• Pro Record: 8-2
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Bolanos by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bolanos -225

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Don’Tale Mayes vs Thomas Petersen

• Don’tale Mayes
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 6-8
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Arlovski, Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker. Beat Caio Machado. 
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Thomas Petersen
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 9-3
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Wins: Beat Mohammed Usman.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Mayes by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mayes -225

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Ivana Petrovic vs Juliana Miller

• Ivana Petrovic
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 7-2
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jamey-Lyn Horth.
• Key Wins: Submitted Na Liang and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Juliana Miller
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 3-3
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Brogan Walker.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

After Luana Santos has had 4 fights in the UFC, it’d appear that Miller’s loss to Santos doesn’t seem as bad. Particularly the grappling.

Chris’ Pick: Petrovic by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrovic -225

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Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos

• Junior Tafa
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 6-3
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Sharaf, Parker Porter, and a 6-1 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

• Tuco Tokkos
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 10-5
• UFC Record: 0-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 striker and a 9-3 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Tokkos by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tokkos -225