Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 15-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Brady. Beat Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns, Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Kevin Holland.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I’ll admit. I could be wrong on Della Maddalena’s wrestling. It’s borderline a 65. But I do know for sure his striking is a legit 75 as he out struck Burns 47 to 23. And being that we haven’t seen Della Maddalena in over a year, I think it’s safe to project his wrestling as a 70. Based on Muhammad out striking Edwards 62 to 35, there’s a very real chance his striking has elevated to a 75, but I think it’s more likely a 70 for now.
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Della Maddalena -135
Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-1-1 at 125 lbs. 13-3-1 overall.
- Key Draw: Split decision draw to Alexa Grasso.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lauren Murphy, Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Alexa Grasso, Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia. Split decision over Taila Santos.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat Erin Blanchfield, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia, Mayra Bueno Silva, and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fiorot -135
Jose Aldo vs Aiemann Zahabi
- Jose Aldo
- Age: 38
- UFC/WEC Record: 4-4 at 135 lbs. 21-8 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Jonathan Martinez, Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Urijah Faber, and Frankie Edgar.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Aiemann Zahabi
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Vince Morales.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Qileng Aori, Drako Rodriguez. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Javid Basharat, Ricky Turcios, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Aldo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aldo -250
Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva
- Alexa Grasso
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-1-1 at 125 lbs. 8-4-1 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Draws: Split decision draw to Valentina Shevchenko.
- Key Wins: Submitted Valentina Shevchenko and Joanne Wood. Beat Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber, Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Natalia Silva
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo, Tereza Bleda. Submitted a 3-0 grappler. Beat Jessica Andrade, Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Total shock that Shevchenko was able to take Grasso down at will and control her there the whole fight. I don’t think Grasso is regressing at 31 years of age, but probably that her grappling was a 65 all along.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -300
Benoit Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec
- Benoit Saint Denis
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2 at 155 lbs. 5-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kyle Prepolec
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 18-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Part of me thinks I could be over rating Prepolec’s striking. Could be closer to a 55, it’s just he hasn’t been very active, only fighting 5 times since 2019. So he’s gotten three 1st round KO’s in a row, but it hasn’t been over the best competition and Prepolec gets hit a lot. Main reason the striking could be a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Saint Denis by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Saint Denis -500
Mike Malott vs Charlie Radtke
- Mike Malott
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Draws: Fought a 5-4 striker to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Adam Fugitt, Yohan Lainesse, a 8-0 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 3-0 grappler. Beat Trevin Giles.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Charlie Radtke
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matthew Semelsberger and Gilbert Urbina. Submitted a 6-0 striker. Beat Blood Diamond. Split decision over a 3-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
It wasn’t a spectacular knockout or submission, but I know 100% for sure Giles has 65 striking, and Malott out struck him 59 to 34. That’s really impressive. And I haven’t seen it yet, but based on the improvement on the feet, I’m projecting Malott’s grappling as a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Malott by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Malott -325
Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ariane da Silva and Priscila Cachoeira. Beat Mayra Bueno Silva, Fatima Kline, Miranda Maverick, Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-4 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mackenzie Dern, Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Marina Rodriguez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
When Jasudavicius got repeated take downs on Bueno Silva, I’m tempted to say that Bueno Silva allowed herself to be there, to work her submission game from her back. I hesitate to elevate Jasudavicius’ grappling to a 75. But I know that Bueno Silva has 70 striking because of how her stand up did against Raquel Pennington and Macy Chiasson. So if her striking improved from a 65 grade to a 70, it’s very plausible her grappling improved as well. On the one hand, Natalia Silva is improving and getting better. But on the other hand, the striking numbers were so lopsided, with Silva out striking Andrade 106 to 48. It seems likely that Andrade is finally starting to regress.
Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jasudavicius -250
Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raffael Cerqueira, Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Marcin Prachnio. Beat Zac Pauga and Tyson Pedro.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-9-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tanner Boser, Khalil Rountree, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark. Split decision over Ivan Erslan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cutelaba -250
Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan
- Navajo Stirling
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat Tuco Tokkos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ivan Erslan
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ion Cutelaba.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter, an 11-4 striker, a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Erslan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Erslan -135
Marc Andre Barriault vs Bruno Silva
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Curtis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez, Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Jordan Wright. Beat Eryk Anders and Dalcha Lungiambula.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares, Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Barriault by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Barriault -300
Daniel Santos vs Jeongyeong Lee
- Daniel Santos
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out John Castaneda, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Johnny Munoz Jr. a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jeongyeong Lee
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 grappler and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Blake Bilder. Split decision over Zha Yi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -300
Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan
- Brad Katona
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 grappler. Beat Cody Gibson and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bekzat Almakhan
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 15-5 fighter, a 12-4-1 striker, a 12-4 grappler, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Beat a well rounded 14-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Almakhan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almakhan -300