Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-5 at 170 lbs. 13-8 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Michael Morales
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Neil Magny, Adam Fugitt, and Trevin Giles. Beat Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Burns by split decision.
What odds the favorite should be at: Burns -135
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
- Paul Craig
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-6-1 at 205 lbs. 9-10-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomed Ankalaev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Rodolfo Bellato
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jimmy Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 4-1 striker. Submitted a 5-1 striker and an 11-4 striker. Beat a 15-5 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Craig by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Craig -135
Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos
- Sodiq Yusuff
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez. Submitted Don Shainis. Beat Alex Caceres, Andre Fili, and Mike Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Mairon Santos
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 15-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kaan Ofli, a 5-0 striker and a 6-2 grappler. Beat a 7-1 wrestler and a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Split decision win over Francis Marshall.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Yusuff by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yusuff -200
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Dustin Stoltzfus
- Nursulton Ruziboev
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 37-9-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 wrestler and a well rounded 17-11 fighter.
- Key Draws: Fought a 3-2 grappler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eric McConico, Sedriques Dumas, Brunno Ferreira, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 14-5 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 40-9 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Dustin Stoltzfus
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Puna Soriano. Knocked out Marc Andre Barriault and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Dwight Grant and a 10-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Ruziboev by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ruziboev -175
Melquizael Costa vs Julian Erosa
- Melquizael Costa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nuerdanbieke Shayilan. Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat Christian Rodriguez, Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 13-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Elkins, Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Christian Rodriguez, Ricardo Ramos, Charles Jourdain, and Sean Woodson. Beat Hakeem Dawodu. Split decision over Steven Peterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -135
Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo
- Gabe Green
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yohan Lainesse, a 7-0 striker, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Philip Rowe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Matheus Camilo
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 wrestler and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat an 8-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Green -300
Thiago Moises vs Jared Gordon
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mitch Ramirez and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Melquizael Costa, Christos Giagos, and Michael Johnson. Beat Trey Ogden, Alexander Hernandez, and Bobby Green.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva. Split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mark O. Madsen. Beat Leonardo Santos, Danny Chavez, and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I know Moises’ striking is no better than a 60 as Ogden out struck him 58 to 22. Thus, despite acruing over 7 minutes of control time on Ogden, I can’t grade his grappling a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Gordon by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gordon -250
Yadier Del Valle vs Connor Matthews
- Yadier Del Valle
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 wrestler. Beat a 17-5 wrestler, Michael Aswell, a 3-0 grappler, and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Connor Matthews
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 grappler. Beat a 10-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Del Valle by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Del Valle -125
Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa
- Luana Santos
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Mairya Agapova. Knocked out Juliana Miller. Beat Stephanie Egger and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Tainara Lisboa
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Rose Clark. Beat Ravena Oliveira.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Market had Santos close as a -140 favorite over Casey O’Neill. Thinking the striking would be close to equal and that Santos would have a slight grappling edge. But instead the grappling was even and O’Neill out struck her 69 to 41. So slight chance O’Neill showed up improved and Santos is still just as good as we thought, but more likely we were over rating her a tad. And if Oliveira had some success taking Lisboa down, Santos will absolutely have some success there too.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -250
Denise Gomes vs Elise Reed
- Denise Gomes
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yazmin Jauregui, Bruna Brasil, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 3-0 striker. Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and a 3-0-1 grappler. Split decision over Eduarda Moura.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Elise Reed
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Melissa Martinez. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Gomes by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gomes -300
Carlos Hernandez vs Hyun Sung Park
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Beat Denys Bondar and a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Nyamjaral Tumendemberel, Victor Altamirano, and Daniel Barez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Hyun Sung Park
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shannon Ross and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 wrestler and an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Park closed as a monster -600 over Ross, with the market thinking he had 65 tools. And even though on the surface Park got the 2nd round KO, the numbers show Ross was getting the better of the striking 46 to 36 up until the knockout.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -175
Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro
- Tecia Pennington
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 11-9
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern.
- Key Wins: Beat Carla Esparza, Angela Hill, Sam Hughes, Michelle Waterson, and Brianna van Buren.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Luana Pinheiro
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Beat Sam Hughes. Split decision over Michelle Waterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Pennington by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pennington -250