Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted Jessica Andrade, Molly McCann, and JJ Aldrich. Beat Rose Namajunas, Taila Santos, Miranda Maverick, and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Beat Katlyn Cerminara, Jessica Eye, and Montana de la Rosa. Split decision wins over Andrea Lee and Miranda Maverick.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Blanchfield actually out struck Namajunas 103 to 91. But I don’t think I’m ready to upgrade Blanchfield’s striking to a 75 as I think it’s more likely Namajunas is starting to regress. But I could be wrong and it wouldn’t surprise me if the striking tool is a 75 after all.
Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blanchfield -200
Mateusz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Hooker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Rafael dos Anjos, Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler. Split decision over Jalin Turner.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Cunningham, Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Roosevelt Roberts, Thiago Moises, Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gamrot -250
Billy Ray Goff vs Seok Hyun Ko
- Billy Ray Goff
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yusaku Kinoshita, a 9-1 striker, 3-0 grappler and a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Seok Hyun Ko
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 9-0 striker and well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ko ended up being a lot better than I thought he was when he made his debut on the Contender. But then again, his opponent Igor Cavalcanti, who closed as a -485 favorite, did gas out. But then again, striking in the 1st round with Cavalcanti was close to equal, so not a lot of data for me to go off on but where I have Ko graded I think is most plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Goff by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Goff -200
Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 9-4-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khalil Rountree.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vitor Petrino, Kennedy Nzechukwu, Da Un Jung, Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bruno Lopes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues and a 13-2 striker. Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Beat Magomed Gadzhiyasulov and a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Lopes was really impressive outperforming the market and accruing over 9 minutes of control time on the ground with Gadzhiyasulov. I’ve come to the realization lately that although Alonzo Menifield has big power, his striking is definitely a 60. Thus, Jacoby’s striking is not a 70 as I thought and need to downgrade that tool to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Jacoby by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jacoby -135
Zachary Reese vs Dusko Todorovic
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Jose Medina.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Dusko Todorovic
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Maki Pitolo, Michel Pereira, and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Todorovic has been knocked out in the 1st round in 3 of his last 4 fights and Reese is the last type of guy Todorovic would want to be in the cage with. Althought Todorovic could have a shot if he can get some early take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Reese by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Reese -135
Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho
- Allan Nascimento
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 20-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Tagir Ulanbekov and Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Carlos Hernandez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 10-3 grappler. Beat Jake Hadley, a well rounded 16-4 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jafel Filho
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vinicius Salvador and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, Daniel Barez, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Filho by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Filho -175
Trevin Giles vs Andreas Gustafsson
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Louis Cosce and Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Preston Parsons and Ryan Spann.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Andreas Gustafsson
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Joilton Lutterbach.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a 10-2 wrestler, and an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Gustufsson has a little bit of hype and I might be under rating him a tad. Could have 60 tools. For a bit, I thought Giles striking might have elevated to a 70 after he out struck Carlos Prates but that seems to be an outlier as Mike Malott was able to out strike him 59 to 34.
Chris’ Pick: Giles by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Giles -300
Macy Chiasson vs Ketlen Vieira
- Macy Chiasson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad twice. Knocked out Mayra Bueno Silva, Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany. Beat Marion Reneau. Split decision over Norma Dumont.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raquel Pennington.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Pannie Kianzad, Miesha Tate, Sijara Eubanks, and Ashley Evans-Smith. Split decision over Holly Holm.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Chiasson by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chiasson -175
Oban Elliott vs Ramiz Brahimaj
- Oban Elliott
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bassil Hafez. Beat Preston Parsons, Valentine Woodburn and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 17-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall. Submitted Sasha Palatnikov and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Elliott by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Elliott -125
Kurt Holobaugh vs Jordan Leavitt
- Kurt Holobaugh
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 2-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard. Beat Kaynan Kruschewsky.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Knocked out Victor Martinez. Split decision over Trey Ogden.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Alexander Hernandez picked up over 6 minutes of control time on the ground with Holobaugh. It’s possible Holobaugh was content to work submissions off his back. But more likely that Holobaugh’s grappling is a 55. I also think Hernandez’s striking has regressed to a 60. Highly doubt Holobaugh all of a sudden has 65 striking as he’s 38 years old with 8 UFC fights.
Chris’ Pick: Leavitt by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Leavitt -200
Bolaji Oki vs MarQuel Mederos
- Bolaji Oki
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Beat an 11-0 striker. Split decision over Timothy Cuamba.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- MarQuel Mederos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-3 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Landon Quinones and a 5-0 wrestler. Split decision over Austin Hubbard.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Oki by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oki -250
Rayanne dos Santos vs Alice Ardelean
- Rayanne dos Santos
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-8
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Puja Tomar and Talita Alencar.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Alice Ardelean
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-7
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shauna Bannon.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ardelean by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ardelean -400