-Nicco Montano: Montano has been good all along. Despite her low ranking on TUF, she had a 8-2 pro/amateur record. And Montano’s losses have only been against a 155 lb fighter in Pam Sorenson and an undefeated 135 lb fighter. But Montano is a 125 lb fighter who is undefeated in the weight class. Roxanne Modafferi has been around forever and has been doing better lately at 125 lbs. But the memory of her losing to the likes of Jennifer Maia and Vanessa Porto in the last couple years is still too fresh for me. This fight is going to be all Montano and I think it’s over in the 1st round via submission.
-Sean O’Malley: O’Malley is a top 135 lb prospect, 23 years old, who has 2 first round knockouts in a row against 2 other very good prospects. Terrion Ware is a below average prospect who is 31 years old and probably peaked at development. O’Malley has already beaten fighters that are better than Ware. O’Malley is going to have another first round knockout here.
-Lauren Murphy: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Really close, tough fight to pick. Yes Murphy has a 1-3 UFC record. But the losses have come against top contenders in the 135 lb division. Murphy is a much more effective 125 lb fighter and only lost on TUF to Nicco Montano, who is fighting for the title. I think Murphy’s bigger size is going to play a big factor in Barb Honchak not being able to wrestle and grind her opponents like she’s used to. Plus Honchak is 38 years old with a lot of fight mileage. Close fight, but look for Murphy to eke out a split decision win.
-Gerald Meerschaert: Well booked fight here as both fighters are at a cross roads. On one side there’s Meerschaert, who looks like a late bloomer with real potential. Who had 3 first round submission wins over 3 really good fighters before getting starched by freight train Thiago Santos in his last fight. On the other side is Eric Spicely who is 2-2 in the UFC, but has a first round submission win over said freight train Thiago Santos. MMA math says Spicely wins this, but the Santos that Spicely beat is not the same guy Meerschaert lost to. Biggest reason I like Meerschaert win here is that he’s a submission specialist and both of Spicely’s losses in the UFC have come via tapping out. So I see a first round submission for Meerschaert.
-Deanna Bennett: Bennett is going to steamroll Melinda Fabian in this fight. Fabian has a 4-3 record. Bennett is one of the better 125 lb female fighters out there. But Bennett has lost 3 in a row. Seems this fight was booked to get Bennett back on track. Bennett by 1st round submission.
-Brett Johns: Tougher fight to pick than it might look on the surface. Johns is undefeated, 14-0, 25 years old. Elite prospect. Possible title contender. But Joe Soto is coming off the biggest win of his career beating Rani Yayha by decision last March. Soto is 3-3 in the UFC and looking at his resume, it’s more likely Soto won via luck. Soto has lost to 2 fighters that the UFC released. His other 2 wins were against Chris Beal who’s been released and 3-3 UFC record Marco Beltran whos is probably getting released too. Soto could be starting to break out a little. It’s possible. But he’s got a horrible obstacle in his way in Johns who is 14-0 for a reason. I’m picking Johns via decision.
-Montana de la Rosa: Really not sure how Christina Marks got on TUF. She’s mostly a journeywoman fighter with a 8-8 record. Marks is similar to Kathina Lowe, who de la Rosa beat in her last fight. Plus de la Rosa is 22 years old and should be much improved. I actually like de la Rosa to pull off a submission win in the 2nd round.
-Andrew Sanchez: Ryan Janes is not much of an opponent here. 36 years old. Well rounded, but no stand out tools. Easy fight for Sanchez who the UFC sees as a potential 185 lb title contender, being able to beat Khalil Rountree at 205 lbs. Sanchez is going to cruise to an easy decision here.
-Rachael Ostovich: Ostovich has a pretty good 9-3 pro/amateur record. Losing to Jenny Liou and barely beating Ariel Beck have me question Ostovich’s upside. But Ostovich’s skills and experience should carry her to a decision win over Karine Gevorgyan, who has a 3-2 record. Has only beaten debuting fighters. And if Gevorgyan failed to beat Jin Tang, I doubt she’ll be able to beat Ostovich.
-Shana Dobson: Picking this fight is a real shot in the dark, due to Dobson’s lack of experience. Her record is 2-1, with a loss to title contender Nicco Montano. I’m going with Dobson, due to what I think of opponent Ariel Beck. Beck has a 5-5 pro/amateur record. And the best fighter she beat had a 6-7 record. And before TUF, she was coming off a loss to journeywoman Kathina Lowe. Dobson has a lot of development in front of her and her win over 2-0 Cassandra Spatz is actually a better win than anybody Beck has beat. Dobson by decision.
-Gillian Robertson: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Robertson has a 12-4 pro/amateur record, including a loss to UFC title contender Cynthia Calvillo. She’s 22 years old and is only getting better. Emily Whitmire has a 3-5 pro and amateur record. Not sure how she got on TUF. Plus she’s a 115 lb fighter who’s going to be too small against Robertson. I like Robertson by 1st round submission.