-Eryk Anders: UPSET SPECIAL 1: This is a real coin flip of a fight for me. Thiago Santos has some of the best power at 185 lbs. But his technique isn’t the most refined. Santos is 10-5 in the UFC but 3 of his 5 loses came from being outstruck. And that weakness in technique is what has held him back from getting a title shot. I think Anders striking is more technical that Santos’. Like even though Anders has only had 4 UFC fights, his fight with Lyoto Machida I think is a good litmus test for where Anders is. And he barely lost to Machida in a chess match type of fight. Now, there are some variables here. Some things about this fight that make it unusual. Santos is fighting on about 3 week’s notice and Anders on 1 week’s notice. And it’s at 205 lbs, not the normal 185 lbs for both. I just think if Anders was almost able to outstrike Machida, he can out strike Santos. So I’m going with Anders by 3rd round knockout.
-Alex Oliveira: Really lopsided fight that’s happening because Oliveira needed a short notice opponent. Carlo Pedersoli is a below average prospect. Took on Brad Scott in his UFC debut and squeaked by with a split decision win. Pedersoli’s best tool is his grappling. But there’s no way he’s going to be able to take Oliveira down. Oliveira will keep the fight on the feet and will knock Pedersoli out in the 1st round.
-Sam Alvey: Alvey is a super under rated fighter. Between middleweight and light heavyweight he’s gone 10-5 in the UFC. But I think he’s way better suited for 205 lbs. He takes on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who hasn’t fought in close to 2 years. He’s 42 years old. And I’m just not convinced he can beat somebody much younger and the caliber of Alvey. Lil’ Nog will probably want to take the fight to the ground where he has his biggest advantage. But Alvey’s take down defense will be good enough to keep the fight on the feet. And although both of their striking is close to equal, I’m way more confident in Alvey’s chin. So I like Alvey by 2nd round knockout.
-Renan Barao: This fight between Barao and Andre Ewell was booked to get Barao back on track. After winning 32 fights in a row and becoming UFC champion, Barao got upset by TJ Dillashaw. Since then, Barao has lost 4 of his last 6 fights. Not sure what it is. He’s not super old. He’s 31 years old. But does have 40 pro fights. It’s possible that he’s body is breaking down after so many fights. But most of the time, when champions lose the belt, they’re never the same. Whatever Barao’s future holds, he’s not going to lose this fight. Ewell is a very below average prospect and the UFC only signed him as a short notice opponent. 12 of Ewell’s 13 pro wins have come against the very worst in tomato cans. I’m talking about some opponents who had 0-12, 0-19 type records. Guys that get paid to be beat up. Ewell is well rounded. No stand out tools. Barao is better than him everywhere and this is a cupcake type matchup to try and build his confidence back up. Barao by 1st round knockout.
-Marina Rodriguez: Really close fight. Randa Markos is kind of like the Francisco Trinaldo of the women’s strawweight division. I’m tempted to say Markos is able to take top prospect Rodriguez down and maintain top control but I think Rodriguez’s take down defense will be good enough to stop some of the take downs. Not all. But enough to keep the fight on the feet for a decent amount of time to score big points on Markos with her striking and pick up a close decision win.
-Charles Oliveira: This fight is going to be a squash. Christos Giagos is getting a 2nd chance in the UFC because Oliveira needed an opponent on short notice. Giagos went 1-2 in the UFC. And since he got released, he hasn’t done anything to make me think he’s improved enough to have a chance to beat Oliveira. I see Oliveira catching Giagos in a submission in the 1st round for an easy win.
-Francisco Trinaldo: Trinaldo is one of those fighters who’s very unappreciated. He’s not going to become champion or even get a title fight. Every time he gets a fight with a contender, he loses because he’s one dimensional. He has a very elite tool. His wrestling. But when he takes on a contender who’s also got elite wrestling or elite take down defense and is more well rounded, Trinaldo loses. But Trinaldo’s wrestling is so good, he serves a very useful purpose as a upper tier gatekeeper. He takes on Evan Dunham who’s got very good grappling. And the question, as it always is in a Trinaldo fight, is can Trinaldo take his opponent down. I say he can take Dunham down. And because of that, we’re looking at a Trinaldo win via decision.
-Ryan Spann: Spann might not have the prettiest pro record when making his UFC debut. He’s 14-5. But 3 of the 5 loses have come against fighters in the UFC. And there’s also been a big development for him. His hands have gotten way, way better in his last few fights. In Spann’s first 11 fights, only 1 has come by knockout. But in 2 of Spann’s last 3 fights, he’s picked up 1st round knockouts. And not against some nobodies or submission specialists. The knockouts have come against quality strikers. So Spann is very well rounded now, as 10 of his 14 wins have come by submission. Spann makes his UFC debut in a very interesting fight against Luis Henrique. Interesting because Henrique went 2-3 in the UFC at heavyweight and was released. But is now getting a 2nd chance at light heavyweight. So he could be a lot better at his new weight class. Henrique is well rounded. Has plus submissions, but all his other tools are close to average. I think Spann is able to keep the fight on the feet. Has a big striking advantage and knocks Henrique out in the 2nd round.
-Augusto Sakai: Chase Sherman has had enough fights in the UFC for us to know who he is. 2-4 record in the UFC. Hasn’t been released yet because he’s a younger heavyweight at 28 years old. But his problem is he hasn’t made much progress in evolving. He’s got his stand up game. That’s how he’s won all his fights. But when he’s being out struck, he’s got nothing to fall back on. Sakai is also a striker. 27 years old. 11-1 pro record. And I think Sakai is a better striker. Is Sherman really going to be that much better at wrestling or grappling since the last time out? I doubt it. I like Sakai by decision.
-Sergio Moraes: Moraes is big time under rated. He’s 7-2 in the UFC, but not really getting a big push because he’s 36 years old and doesn’t finish enough fights. He’s going to have no problem grappling Ben Saunders. Taking him down. And I’ll even go out on a limb and say Moraes submits Saunders in the 2nd round.
-Mayra Silva: UPSET SPECIAL 2: One of my favorite fights on the card. Silva is an elite prospect who’s got a 4-0 pro record outside the UFC and 3 of the 4 wins have come against top prospects. That’s very unusual. Gillian Robertson is a very good prospect too with a 2-1 UFC record, but she’s the definition of one dimensional. Submission specialist. Above average grappling. Below average on the rest of the tools. Silva is decently well rounded, but she’s more of a grappler as well. I see Silva being able to keep this fight on the feet and knocking Robertson out in the 1st round.
-Thales Leites: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Both guys in this fight are competing for the right to stick around in the UFC. And to me, there’s a clear favorite. Hector Lombard’s calling card over the last decade has been his lightning quick hands. But as he’s gotten older, he’s now 40 years old, his hands aren’t as quick as they used to be and he’s getting beat to the punch. Lombard hasn’t won a fight since 2014. Leites is near the end of his career too, but he’s still effective and even though he’s lost 2 in a row, he beat a very good mid tier gatekeeper in Sam Alvey just last year. I think Leites weathers the usual 1st round Lombard storm. Lombard might win the 1st round. Gets tired. And then Leites pours it on with the clinch and probable take downs in the 2nd and 3rd to win the decision.
-Elizeu Zaleski: Luigi Vendramini takes this fight on 1 week’s notice. 22 years old. 8-0 pro record. 7 of his 8 wins have come against tomato cans. The 1 win he has that’s decent was against Andriano Andre who had a 6-2 record. Vendramini is well round. But he’s a lightweight who’s fighting at welterweight. And Zaleski is going to be way too much, too soon. Zaleski is going to be able to keep the fight on the feet and is going to knock Vendramini out in the 1st round.
-Livinha Souza: Easy fight to pick. Alex Chambers is on her way out. 39 years old. Very good grappler. But unfortunately for Chambers, her grappling strength is negated by Souza’s even better grappling. Souza is a very good prospect. Making her UFC debut. This is going to end fast. Souza by 1st round submission.