
-Derrick Lewis: Lewis definitely has a big flaw in his game being that if he’s taken down, there’s a good chance he loses the fight. But he won’t get that threat from Junior dos Santos who’s going to try to out strike Lewis. This matchup is tailor made for Lewis. Yes, dos Santos probably has better technique and will probably land more and has better cardio. But Lewis has the best chin in the division. And it’s been proven dos Santos’ chin isn’t what it used to be. Lewis will keep eating shots until he lands one of his own and knocks dos Santos out. 2nd round.
-Elizeu Zaleski: The winner of this fight is going to become a contender at 170 lbs and might be a year or two out from getting a title shot. Both Zaleski and Curtis Millender are strikers. Millender 31 years old. Zaleski 32 years old. But I think Zaleski has a power advantage that will carry him to win the fight. Plus he’ll have an experience advantage too. I expect a close fight but Zaleski will pull through with the decision.
-Niko Price: I still believe in Price’s potential as a possible contender. He just needs to polish his striking and know when to not be as aggressive. And Means is a dangerous opponent as he has knock out power. Another thing that’s interesting about Means, who’s served as a quality lower tier gate keeper, is that his grappling is a lot better. The pathway to beating Means used to be take him down and submit, but Means went against Sergio Moraes and was successfully able to keep the fight on the feet. So Price is going to have to out strike Means to win here and I think he does that. Price by decision, because Means is durable.
-Ben Rothwell: After going 2-3 to start his UFC career, Rothwell quietly won his next 4 out of 5 fights including a knockout win over Alistair Overeem and only losing to Junior dos Santos. Rothwell is solid everywhere. He’s 37 years old and hasn’t fought in almost 3 years. So it’s a bit unknown how must rust he might have and how much left he has in the tank. But I’m not sold on Blagoy Ivanov. He’s got a sparkling 16-2 record, but he hasn’t fought the best of the best like Rothwell has. I think Rothwell has better striking technique and will knock Ivanov out in the 2nd round.
-Drew Dober: Beneil Dariush has quietly been a very effective fighter in the UFC, amassing a 9-4 record. But since getting knocked out by Edson Barboza a couple years ago, he’s lost his mojo. Still 29 years old. In his prime. But only has 1 win in his last 4 fights. Ironically, the opposite has happened with Dober. Dober started his career losing 3 of his first 4 fights. But surprisingly, the UFC didn’t release and saw potential. Since then, Dober has won 5 out of his last 6 fights. The key for Dober has been figuring out how to unlock his power. In 20 pro wins, he only has 4 knockouts. 2 of Dober’s last 4 wins have come by knockout. But Dober is more well rounded than you think as he also has 9 submission wins. Dariush is more of a grappler whose striking hasn’t really developed. Dober is going to be able to stuff Dariush’s take downs and will blitz him for a 1st round knockout.
-Omari Akhmedov: If this was Tim Boestch from a few years ago, I’d pick Boestch all the way. Akhmedov can be knocked out. Boestch has the technique and power to do it. But Boestch is now 38 years old. And has only fought three times in the past 2 years. Lost the last 2 out of 3, although the losses were against Jacare Souza and Antonio Carlos Jr. And Akhmedov has been trending up. After going 5-3 in the UFC at 170 lbs, Akhmedov moved up to 185 lbs and looked pretty good even though Marvin Vettori to a draw. Don’t think Vettori is that good? Well, he’s the closest to beat Israel Adesanya. Vettori lost by close split decision. So Akhmedov and Vettori both I think have potential to be elite. Akhmedov is well rounded. His best path to victory would be somehow taking Boestch down but I don’t think he’s able to do it. Fight stays on the feet and I see Akhmedov being faster and out pointing Boestch for a close decision win.
-Anthony Rocco Martin: Martin has been on a real roll, coming off the biggest win of his career over potential title contender Jake Matthews. The two big improvements that have propelled Martin has been the move up in weight to 170 lbs, that gives him more power. And his striking technique has improved a lot too. Martin’s best tool is his plus wrestling and he’s going to use that to keep the fight on the feet with Sergio Moraes. Martin will easily win the exchanges and knock Moraes out in the 2nd round.
-Marion Reneau: Reneau is one of those rare fighters who’s gotten better, even as she gets older. 41 years old now. Still in her prime with no signs of slowing down. She’s got abover average striking and above average wrestling. And she’s going to expose the take down defense of Yana Kunitskaya. Kunitskaya is a pretty good striker but she really needs to get better at the grappling and wrestling part. Reneau will take Kunitskaya down and will ground and pound from the top. I’ll go with a 3rd round TKO.
-Julian Erosa: Odds aren’t out on this fight yet as of this pick, but I’m guessing Erosa will be the underdog going into this fight. Erosa is 2-2 in the UFC. 29 years old. He’s well rounded. I think he’s got potential to stick in the UFC as a lower tier gate keeper. I think Erosa wins because of who he’s fighting. Grant Dawson. 25 years old. 1-0 in the UFC so far. Grappler. But his record is really padded. His biggest wins of his career was beating a prospect with a 3-1 record and the guy he beat on the Contender Series was 11-4-1. He’s making his debut on a UFC card. He’s going to have the jitters. And I’ve seen no evidence that his grappling is at a level where he could take Erosa down. Fight stays on the feet and Erosa knocks him out in the 1st round.
-Jeff Hughes: Hughes is one of the better heavyweight prospects. 10-1 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC. 30 years old. Above average striking. Near plus wrestling. His opponent Daniel Spitz is pretty green. Only 8 pro fights. 6-2 overall. 1-2 in the UFC. 28 years old. He’s well rounded. I see Hughes being fine with starting the fight striking, see if he has any success, but if he falters at all, having no problem taking Spitz down. I see Hughes mixing it up and he’ll win via decision.
-Louis Smolka: Smolka is famous for being a title contender at 125 lbs before getting upset by Brandon Moreno a couple years ago. He then went on to lose 4 fights in a row before the UFC released him. Since then, the UFC gave him another shot fighting on short notice and he picked up the submission. Smolka is still developing at 27 years old but is now really well rounded. He takes on Matt Schnell who’s 2-2 in the UFC. A grappler. 29 years old. And won’t have much chance winning this fight unless he gets it to the ground. He’s not and Smolka will knock him out in the 2nd round.
-Alex Morono: Battle of the improving welterweights here. Zak Ottow is coming off his biggest win over decent prospect Dwight Grant. And Morono coming off his biggest win over Song Kenan. Both fighters are similar where their best skills are in the submission game. Ottow probably has slightly better wrestling. But I think Morono will have enough take down defense to keep the fight standing up. Morono has the better striking and will out point Ottow in a close split decision win.
-Dan Moret: Alex White has a 3-5 UFC record and I’m surprised the UFC is giving him another shot here. 30 years old. Pretty well rounded with average striking and an average ground game. Moret lost his UFC debut to Gilbert Burns. No shame there. Moret has a 13-4 pro record. All 3 of his other losses came against fighters currently in the UFC. Moret also has a thick resume of beating decent prospects outside the UFC. Moret has near plus grappling and submissions. That’s his best tool. And he has the upside of a lower tier gate keeper. Moret will have the best tool in the fight. He’ll be able to take White down and do enough there to win by decision.