-Anthony Smith: UPSET SPECIAL: The biggest reason why Jones is undefeated and could go down as the best pound for pound fighter of all time is because he has almost no weaknesses. And I say almost because the only place Jones hasn’t been tested is off his back. Jones has been taken down once in his career, by Alex Gustafsson. And Jones got back up. It’s possible Jones could be beat if taken down by a jiu jitsu ace who could submit him. But Jones has very under rated wrestling, which he put on display in his second fight with Gustafsson. And it’s possible Jones could be out struck like he was in his first fight with Gustafsson. Which leads me into this fight with Anthony Smith. And Smith absolutely, 100% deserves this title shot. Especially when finishing former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. Smith is more well rounded than people realize. He’s got plus power. Above average striking technique. Average grappling. Above average submission game. No doubt, Smith is going to be most dangerous striking with Jones. Now, I do think that Jones is more than likely going to win this fight. Probably by taking Smith down and ground and pounding him. But I’m picking Smith because the betting public has lost their mind pushing Jones to being a -1400 favorite. That’s just insane. Jones should be the favorite, but I’d put him closer to -500. It’s just a number I couldn’t stomach if I was placing a bet. Smith is absolutely a live underdog and getting him at +970 is a risk worth taking. I’ll go with Smith shocking the world with a 3rd round knockout.
-Tyron Woodley: Kamaru Usman has been on a real roll on his way to a title shot. 31 years old. 9-0 in the UFC. He’s got plus plus wrestling. Average striking. Above average power. But it’s obviously his wrestling that’s carried him. I don’t see Usman beating Woodley because Usman has never been in a fight where he couldn’t take his opponent down and I believe Woodley will be the first to stuff Usman. And if the fight plays out on the feet, Woodley, who was able to out strike Stephen Thompson, is going to have a big advantage. I see Woodley using his superior speed and technique to out point Usman to win by decision.
-Ben Askren: Once upon a time, Robbie Lawler had take down defense. He fought an elite wrestler like Johny Hendricks and was able to keep the fight on the feet. But Lawler is now 36 years old and in his last fight with Rafael dos Anjos in December 2017, he wasn’t able to stop dos Anjos’ take downs and was dominated for 5 rounds. So now Lawler takes on an even better wrestler than dos Anjos in Askren and I’m just not seeing any path to victory for Lawler. I just see Askren going for take down after take down and doing plenty on the ground to cruise to a decision win.
-Weili Zhang: Zhang’s submission win over a top wrestler in Jessica Aguilar really made me a believer in her potential to be a title contender. Zhang is 29 years old. 2-0 in the UFC so far. 18-1 pro record. Very well rounded 9 knockouts and 7 submissions. Only 2 of her pro wins have been via decision. Tecia Torres is a quality upper tier gate keeper. She’s probably the fastest strawweight in the division. I think the easiest path to victory is going to be grabbing a hold of Torres and taking her down. Torres has 2 losses to other wrestlers in Carla Esparza and Randa Markos. I don’t think Zhang submits her but does enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Cody Garbrandt: Where exactly is Garbrandt’s grappling and take down defense at? He’s yet to be tested by a really good wrestler or grappler in the UFC. So this fight with Pedro Munhoz who’s got plus grappling is a very dangerous fight for him coming off not only the first 2 losses of his career but also knockout losses. But if you look at who Garbrandt fought before he got to the UFC, he actually beat a couple pretty good grapplers. Was able to keep the fight on the feet and knocked both out. So this fight comes down to can Munhoz take Garbrandt down. And if he can’t can Munhoz work in the clinch? I think the answer to both is no. Garbrandt’s striking and foot movement is plus and I think he avoids the take downs and knocks Munhoz out in the 2nd round.
-Zabit Magomedsharipov: It’s true that Jeremy Stephens was on a bit of a good run, winning 3 fights in a row before getting knocked out by Jose Aldo in his last fight. But Stephens remains a formidable upper tier gate keeper. With Stephens power and chin, he’s been able to beat some of the young, up-and-comers at 145 lbs. Yet none of them is quite like 27 year old Zabit. When watching Zabit, it’s easy to predict that he’ll be getting a title shot at some point. He’s got plus striking, plus plus grappling. Plus submissions. The only potential weakness he could have, and I say could because his sample size is too small to know, I haven’t seen big time knockout power yet. And Zabit’s cardio hasn’t really been challenged yet. But in this fight, Zabit will get a hold of Stephens, take him down. And submit him in the 1st round.
-Johnny Walker: When you look closer at Misha Cirkunov, it’s easy to see why Walker would want this fight on 3 weeks notice. Yes, Cirkunov could pose a challenge to Walker by testing his grappling and ground game. But Cirkunov’s last 3 fights have proven that he doesn’t have much of a chin and is vulnerable against strikers with knockout power. Cirkunov got knocked out by Glover Teixeira in 3 minutes and got knocked out by Volkan Oezdemir in 28 seconds. Walker’s first 2 UFC wins: knockout in 2 minutes. Knockout in 15 seconds. This fight is really set up for another Johnny Walker 1st round knockout special.
-Cody Stamann: When Stamann was lined up to face elite prospect Tom Duquesnoy in Stamann’s 2nd UFC fight, the script called for another big knockout win for Duquesnoy. I bought into that as well as I felt that Stamann had a padded record beating a bunch of tomato cans outside the UFC and looked just okay in his UFC debut beating Terrion Ware. But Stamann was able to mix in his wrestling against Duquesnoy enough to keep him off balance. And Stamann’s hands had improved enough to hold his own in the striking exchanges and Stamann picked up the upset split decision win. Since then, Stamann was able to show he’s a contender in beating upper tier gate keeper Bryan Caraway. But lost to fellow contender Aljamain Sterling when the fight when to the ground and Sterling submitted him. But I think this fight with Alejandro Perez will go pretty similar to Stamann’s fight with Duquesnoy. And yes, Perez, very quietly has compiled a 7-1-1 UFC record. But styles make fights and Perez has never fought against a wrestler like Stamann. I see Stamann taking Perez down when he wants to. Mixes and matches and wins by decision.
-Mickey Gall: Diego Sanchez was able to do enough to beat journeyman Craig White in his last fight by using his wrestling. But he’s going to be out matched against the 27 year old Gall who has a high ceiling if he can round out his game and improve his striking. As of now, Gall will be able to take Sanchez down and submit him pretty quick. 1st round.
-Edmen Shahbazyan: The UFC really threw Shahbazyan into the deep end when they had him make his UFC debut against vet Darrent Stewart. And on paper, it doesn’t seem like that big of a challenge. Stewart had a 2-3 UFC record going into that fight. Is a striker just like Shahbazyan. But you can’t over look the fact that Shahbazyan is only 21 years old and still growing into his body. And even though Shahbazyan struggled and eked out a split decision win, I was still impressed. So it makes sense the UFC would pump the brakes a little and give Shahbazyan an easier matchup in Charles Byrd. Byrd has a 10-5 pro record. 2-1 in the UFC so far. 35 years old. Pretty well rounded. But I don’t think he has the grappling to get Shahbazyan to the ground where Byrd would have an advantage. This is going to be a stand up fight and Shahbazyan will knock Byrd out in the 2nd round.
-Macy Chiasson: Gina Mazany is 1-2 in the UFC. 30 years old. Her best tool is her striking, but I’d grade it as average, with evidence being from her last fight getting out struck by Lina Lansberg. I’ll go on a limb and predict that Chiasson is fighting for the title within 2 years. But it’s a limb because she only has 3 pro fights. But the tools are definitely there. She was huge at 145 lbs and will be even bigger at 135 lbs. I want to see more from Chiasson as to how she deals with a high level grappler or wrestler, but for this fight, she’ll have no problem knocking Mazany down and submitting her in the 1st round.
-Marlon Vera: Can Vera stuff Frankie Saenz’s take downs? That’s about the only path to victory Saenz has. 38 years old. 5-3 in the UFC. Has served as a solid mid tier gate keeper. Vera has contender upside. 26 years old. Came into the UFC as a grappler, but since has improved his striking a ton. I predict Vera is able to keep the fight on the feet where he’s going to have an advantage and will out point Saenz for the decision win.
-Polyana Viana: Maycee Barber really laid out the blueprint of how to beat Hannah Cifers. Cifers is a striker who needs to work on her take down defense. Viana doesn’t have the best resume outside the UFC, but all 10 of her wins have been finishes. She’s well rounded. 6 submissions, 4 knockouts. I see Viana’s striking being good enough to keep her from being knocked out early in the fight. And will have enough time to take Cifers down and submit her in the 2nd round.