
-Jan Blachowicz: I don’t think Blachowicz ever becomes champion, but he does serve a purpose as an upper tier gate keeper. And it took Blachowicz a little bit of time to figure out what type of fighter he is. Like he knocked out Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut within 2 minutes and I think after that, believed he was a well rounded fighter and could knock out anybody in the UFC. After the Latifi win, Blachowicz proceeded to lose 4 of his next 5 fights, mostly because of losing striking exchanges. But then when he fought Devin Clark, he seemed to switch his strategy to focus more on grappling and wrestling. He submitted Clark in a standing up bulldog choke. Used his wrestling to get decision wins over Jared Cannonier and Jimi Manuwa. And submitted a possible future contender in Nikita Krylov. Now, Blachowicz’s opponent Thiago Santos, he’s getting more attention than he ever has before. And a lot of people think Santos is this new guy who could get a title shot soon. But he’s had 17 fights in the UFC. And he’s actually, really, the same guy right now that he’s always been. Plus plus power. But it’s partnered with only above average striking technique. And he can be submitted if taken down. And he just moved up to 205 lbs. He’s a smaller light heavyweight. Style wise, this is a perfect match up for Blachowicz. I see Blachowicz having no problem taking Santos down and submitting him pretty quick. 1st round.
-Marcos Rogerio de Lima: The story on Rogerio de Lima for a while had been if you can get him on the ground, he can be submitted. But if you can’t take him down, you’re likely to get knocked out. But now things might be changing with his move to heavyweight. Rogerio de Lima said that the weight cut to 205 lbs was effecting his strength and cardio. And he could be right. He didn’t finish Adam Wieczorek in his heavyweight debut, but was able to resist Wieczorek’s plus grappling and didn’t gas out. He won very convincingly. Stefan Struve is interesting because even though 30 years old is young for a heavyweight, he’s amazingly, had 21 UFC fights. That’s tons of mileage on the body. And he’s just never broken through. His developed has been stunted for years. I’m not sure why. I could say he’s still only 30, but history has shown that a career winding down has more to do with year over year damage to the body than age. I think Struve’s career may be winding down. In any case, in this fight, if Rogerio de Lima could stay on his feet with Wieczorek, I think he’s able to do the same against Struve. Therefore, we’re looking at a Rogerio de Lima 1st round knockout.
-Michal Oleksiecjzuk: Pretty lopsided match up here. Gian Villante is probably most well known for his durability. Other than that, he has above average striking. Average knockout power. Slightly below average wrestling. And that’s it. 23 year old Oleksiecjzuk on the other hand was extremely impressive in his UFC debut able to handle a quality mid tier gate keeper in Khalil Rountree. Oleksiecjzuk was able to stick and move, mix in some clinch work. And was never in danger from Rountree’s plus power. There won’t be a knockout due to how difficult it is to finish Villante, but I’m very confident in predicting Oleksiecjzuk by decision.
-Liz Carmouche: Lucie Pudilova has upside. 24 years old. So far in the UFC, she’s 2-2. She’s shown above average striking and average take down defense. Those are her best tools. But average take down defense isn’t going to be enough against one of the top 3 wrestlers in the division in Carmouche. Carmouche has won 3 of her last 4 fights. She’s still in her prime at 34 years old. Lost a close split decision to top grappler Alexis Davis. But was able to beat a contender in Katlyn Chookagian. Pudilova will have no answers for Carmouche’s take downs and I see a ground and pound TKO win in the 2nd round.
-John Dodson: UPSET SPECIAL 1: I really like Petr Yan’s future. He’s likely to become a contender at 135 lbs. And has a slight chance of becoming champion one day. But he’s still got some work to do. 25 years old. Getting better. But in the here and now, Dodson will be too much. Dodson is the premier upper tier gate keeper at bantamweight. He only loses to champions and top 5 contenders. The problem Yan is going to have is he’s not going to be able to keep Dodson down. He may take Dodson down, but Dodson is famous for his scrambles and ability to get back up. So this fight will play out on the feet where Dodson will be faster, more accurate, and have way better cardio. I’m picking Dodson by decision.
-Magomed Ankalaev: These two are probably the in the top five of the best light heavyweight prospects in the UFC. Klidson Abreu is famous, or will be famous soon, for having a submission win over Johnny Walker on his resume. And Ankalaev is a beat a who’s who of top competition before signing with the UFC. But styles make fights and that’s what will decide it here. Abreu has plus plus grappling and submissions. He’s submitted top level prospects outside the UFC. But Ankalaev has plus wrestling and I believe he’ll be able to keep the fight standing up. And Ankalaev will have a big striking advantage as I grade his stand up as close to plus and Abreu’s as average. Because of this, I see Ankalaev knocking Abreu out in the 2nd round.
-Gillian Robertson: Two 23 year old fighters collide here, but that’s where the similarities end. Veronica Macedo has a pretty good base for MMA. She’s very well rounded. But the problem for her is she has no standout tools. She’ll beat one dimensional fighters by exposing their weakness, but has struggled against fighters that do have plus tools. And unfortunately for Macedo, Robertson’s definitely has plus tools. Grappling and submissions. She does have a weakness in the stand up. Like Macedo could probably beat Robertson if this was a stand up fight. But I doubt Macedo will be able to stop Robertson’s take downs and I expect this to be over quick in the 1st round. Robertson by submission.
-Carlos Pedersoli Jr: I’m not really impressed with either fighter. I thought Dwight Grant was going to blow up Zak Ottow in the stand up, but Ottow was way more effective than I thought he would be in the clinch. And Pedersoli Jr barely beating Bradley Scott in a split decision isn’t a good look either. So my pick is based on projection and matchup. Grant is 34 years old and I think close to his ceiling. Pedersoli Jr is 25 years old and I think can get better. Plus style wise, if Ottow had success in the clinch, Pedersoli will too. I even think Pedersoli is able to take Grant down and do enough there to win the decision.
-Marco Polo Reyes: Best tool in this fight is Reyes’ striking. Damir Hadzovic is decently well rounded. Has above average striking. Average grappling. He can beat one dimensional fighters by exposing their holes. But I don’t think Hadzovic’s grappling is good enough to take Reyes down. This will be a stand up fight Reyes is going to knock Hadzovic out in the 2nd round.
-Michel Prazares: Ismail Naurdiev seems to have a lot of potential. 17-2 pro record. 22 years old. Has fought a lot of guys way older than him. Most impressive win was over UFC vet Ben Alloway, knocking him out in the 1st round. 16 of his 17 wins have been finishes. But Prazares is an absolute nightmare to face in a UFC debut, especially on only 2 weeks notice. Prazares is probably the best 26-2 fighter you’ve never heard of. He’s never been pushed by the UFC because he’s not an exciting fighter to watch. But the UFC keeps him around to act as a upper gate keeper. And he has an amazing 10-2 UFC record. I expect Prazares to take Naurdiev down whenever he wants and even finish him with ground and pound in the 1st round.
-Chris Fishgold: Daniel Teymur is a pretty well rounded prospect, but his best tools are average. And he’s gone 0-2 in the UFC going against fighters with better tools. And after getting out grappled by Julio Acre in his last fight, Teymur is unfortunately going against an even better grappler in Fishgold. I think Fishgold finishes this one quick. Clinch. Takedown. Submission. 1st round.
-Carlos Diego Ferreira: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Pretty good fight here between Ferreira and Rustam Khabilov. Both have a dark horse chance of becoming contenders. Dark horse because they’re both a bit older. Ferreira being 34 years old, Khabilov is 32 years old. Khabilov is 9-2 in the UFC, Ferreira is 5-2. Khabilov’s got plus wrestling. Ferreira has plus grappling and submissions. The difference is this fight? The improved stand up of Ferreira. Ferreira has 14 career wins. 3 by knockout. 2 of his 3 knockouts came in his last 2 fights. That’s what makes me think he could become a contender. Dangerous on the feet. Dangerous on the ground. Khabilov is pretty durable though so I expect Ferreira to out point him for a decision win.
-Damir Ismagulov: Brutal UFC debut match up for top prospect Joel Alvarez. He’s got plus grappling. Plus plus submissions. 25 years old. And has beat some decent competition. 15-1 pro record. His 1 loss? To a fighter who used his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet and knocked Alvarez out. And that is exactly what’s going to happen in this fight. Ismagulov has near plus wrestling. Near plus striking. Alvarez won’t be able to take Ismagulov down and will get knocked out in the 2nd round.