-Francis Ngannou: UPSET SPECIAL: Vast majority of the time, when a fighter deals with multiple serious injuries, he never comes back the same. Sadly, I see that being the case with Cain Velasquez. He’s 36 years old now. Has had 14 UFC fights. Made his UFC debut 11 years ago in 2008. Has only fought twice in the last 5 years due to injury. Ngannou, meanwhile, looked like his normal self in his last fight with Curtis Blaydes. But the craziest thing was that Blaydes has plus wrestling. The same weapon that ruined Ngannou in his fight versus Stipe Miocic. And yeah, Ngannou did beat Blaydes before by doctor stoppage back in 2016, but Blaydes had improved a ton since then. Blaydes had won 5 in a row, including 3 top contenders in a row including Alexey Oleynik, Mark Hunt, and Alistair Overeem. So how the heck was Ngannou going to stuff the take downs? Well, amazingly, Blaydes did go for one take down before getting knocked out and Ngannou easily side stepped it. Then promptly knocked Blaydes out. And if a healthy, young Blaydes wasn’t able to take Ngannou down, I don’t see Velasquez being able to do it. I think it’s obvious to Ngannou to work on his take down defense even more coming into this fight. I think he gets better in that area. Stuffs Velasquez’s take downs. And knocks Velasquez out in the 1st round.
-Paul Felder: Pretty hard fight to pick. And I’m tempted to pick Vick, who’s striking went to another level as of 2017 when he picked up his 2nd and 3rd career knockouts. But if you’ve followed Vick’s career, you’ll know he’s got some average grappling skills and an average ground game. Which is a compliment. Means he’s got some ability there. But styles make fights and Felder is matched up pretty well to win this fight. And yes, he is coming off a loss just like Vick, but Felder’s loss was at 170 lbs, a bigger weight class. And it was a close split decision loss to Mike Perry. But the most impressive win of Felder’s career was his knockout over mid tier gate keeper Charles Oliveira. Oliveira is known for his plus plus grappling and submissions, but Felder has enough grappling skill and was able to keep Oliveira from grabbing him, keep distance, and strike. And if Oliveira wasn’t able to grapple Felder to the ground, Vick won’t be able to either. Fight will be on the feet. And Justin Gaethje has provided a pretty good blue print on how to knock Vick out. I see Felder following the same game plan and knocking Vick out in the 1st round.
-Cynthia Calvillo: To be blunt, I think Cortney Casey is a step down in competition versus Poliana Botelho, who Calvillo just submitted in the 1st round. Casey in 4-5 in the UFC. Has the upside of a lower tier gate keeper. But Botelho is a legit possible contender at 115 lbs. Casey is well rounded, but doesn’t have any stand out tools. I grade Calvillo as having a plus plus ground game. And plus wrestling that continues to get better. Casey will have nothing for Calvillo and it’ll be a quick Calvillo submission win in the 1st round.
-Myles Jury: Jury and Andre Fili are both really similar fighters. Close to same age. But Jury’s skill is vastly superior to Fili’s. I expect Jury to be faster and more accurate in his strikes which will help him cruise to a decision win.
-Vicente Luque: Bryan Barberena has carved out a decent niche for himself as a lower tier gate keeper. He’s got a 5-3 record in the UFC. In his prime at 29 years old. But I’m not sure why the UFC is wasting Luque’s time with him. Luque is a rising contender who’s likely to get a title shot in the next 1-2 years. Luque is way more well rounded now and is going to knock Barberena out pretty quick. Luque. 1st round knockout.
-Jimmie Rivera: Big time 135 lb fight here. Crossroads for both contenders where the loser is likely to never get the title shot they were hoping for. And unfortunately for Aljamain Sterling, Rivera is a stylistic nightmare for him. Sterling has plus wrestling and a plus ground game. But his stand up is average. Sterling always wants to get the fight to the ground, but Rivera’s wrestling is just as good, if not a little better. Rivera is going to keep the fight on the feet and will have a striking advantage. And a huge power advantage. Sterling has only fought one opponent with big time knockout power, Marlon Moraes, and got knocked out. Rivera has the same level of power and although he isn’t as technical as Moraes, I see Rivera eventually catching Sterling in the 2nd round and knocking him out.
-Manny Bermudez: Two of the best 135 lbs prospects collide here. Both are undefeated. Both are 24 years old. But to me, that’s where the similarities end. Lopez is well rounded and getting better, but Bermudez easily has the best tool in this fight which is his submission game and it’s plus plus. Lopez’s skills are currently average and I don’t see any plus tools. But he’s got upside to improve them. But currently, for where both fighters are right now, Bermudez’s grappling and submission attempts will overwhelm Lopez, who will succumb to a submission in the 2nd round.
-Scott Holtzman: Off the bat, I think Alan Patrick is better than Nik Lentz. And Holtzman dominated Patrick. Lentz is one of the more under rated fighters in the UFC and he’s won many an upset for me. But Holtzman is starting to go to another level in his development, despite being 35 years old. I see Holtzman stuffing Lentz’s take downs and out striking Lentz to win via decision, only because of how durable Lentz is.
-Andrea Lee: Coin flip of a fight. Lee is mostly a grappler. Striking is close to average. She takes on Ashlee Evans-Smith who has average striking and average wrestling. This fight is going to come down to whether one fighter can take the other down and put them on their back. Especially if Lee takes Evans-Smith down, there’s a good chance Lee will pick up the submission win. If the fight stays on the feet, it’ll be really close. Based on track record, I’d say Evans-Smith has the better striking, but Lee I think has more development and she might come into this fight with improved hands. But I’ll predict that Lee finds a way to take Evans-Smith down often enough to win by decision.
-Aleksandra Albu: Albu is one of the very rare prospects that make their UFC debut with a 1-0 pro record. Not only that, she’s gone 2-0 in the UFC so far. She’s got plus power and strength. Above average wrestling. And Izabela Badurek shows she has some potential in her grappling and submissions. From seeing her, the biggest area of improvement would be working on her cardio and pace, but she only has 3 pro fights, so that should come. Emily Whitmire will have nothing for Albu. Whitmire is coming off the biggest win of her career over Jamie Moyle, but between TUF and the UFC, she’s 2-2. 27 years old, so there is time for her to develop, but currently, she doesn’t have the tools to beat Albu. Her best skill is her grappling, but it’s average at best. She’s decently well rounded, but the skill level isn’t that high. And even though Albu doesn’t have the cleanest striking technique yet, I see her using her power to knock Whitmire out in the 2nd round.
-Kron Gracie: Alex Caceres is a lower tier gate keeper with a 9-9 UFC record and a stiff test for any fighter making their UFC debut. But Gracie is an elite prospect. Has plus plus grappling, plus plus ground game. Gracie is even coming off a win beating long time vet Tatsuya Kawajiri in his 4th pro MMA fight. I see Gracie having no problem grabbing a hold of Caceres. Taking him down. And submitting him in the 1st round.
-Luke Sanders: Renan Barao is in a free fall. He’s lost 3 in a row and lost 6 of his last 8. He hasn’t been the same since getting upset by TJ Dillashaw almost 5 years ago. Sanders is not a contender. He’s 2-3 in the UFC. But all 3 losses were against legit UFC guys. And he’s capable of beating fighters that don’t belong in the UFC. Stylistically, I see Sanders having good enough take down defense to keep the fight on the feet and I’m confident in saying that if Andre Ewell could out strike Barao, that Sanders can too. Sanders by decision.
-Jessica Penne: Jessica Aguilar and Penne are pretty similar. Close to same age, same level of experience. Skill set is pretty close to the same. Well, Jodie Esquibel is coming off a lopsided decision loss to Aguilar in her last fight. Aguilar was able to take Esquibel down, control the fight. Land strikes on the ground. I see the same exact fight playing out here. Penne will use take downs to cruise to a decision win.