-Edson Barboza: It’s proven that really the only way to beat Barboza is to take him down. He has plus plus striking and this fight is a horrible matchup for Justin Gaethje. Even though Gaethje is supposed to have pretty good wrestling, he almost never uses it in his fights and I don’t think he’ll be able to take Barboza down even if he wants to. And Gaethje does have legit knockout power, but I don’t see him being able to get to it. Barboza will roll with his trade mark leg kicks and I see him knocking Gaethje out in the 3rd round.
-Jack Hermansson: I was really blown away by Hermansson’s take downs in his last fight against high level grappler Gerald Meerschaert. Hermansson has gotten even better there with plus plus ground and pound. David Branch has plus wrestling himself, but I see Hermansson taking a page from Kamaru Usman and being able to take Branch down and put him in a place he’s not familiar with. Hermansson gets the take down and knocks Branch out with ground and pound in the 1st.
-Josh Emmett: I don’t think 145 lbs is a healthy weight class for Michael Johnson. He hasn’t had increased knockout power like he had hoped. And he’s going to trade strikes with Emmett who is a bonafide knockout artist in the weight class. Emmett got knocked out by Jeremy Stephens in his last fight but I see him bouncing back and knocking Johnson out in the 1st round.
-Karolina Kowalkiewicz: Michelle Waterson has gone 4-2 in the UFC so far. She’s got plus grappling. But her take downs are not on par with her ground game. I think she’s going to have trouble taking Kowalkiewicz down. Fight will stay on the feet where Kowalkiewicz has plus striking and she’ll easily get the best of the striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz by decision.
-Kennedy Nzechukwu: Paul Craig is one of these fighters that has an elite tool, his grappling. It’s plus plus. But has a hard time getting to it in fights. Craig is now 2-3 in the UFC and his take downs have not really improved. It’s like Craig needs his opponent to take him down so he has a chance to pick up the submission off his back. But Craig is very susceptible to getting knocked out when blitzed and Nzechukwu has the knockout power to do it. Nzechukwu with a 1st round knockout.
-Sheymon Moraes: UPSET SPECIAL: I expect the winner of this fight to become a contender at 145 lbs. Both are really good. Strikers. Moraes is 2-1 in the UFC with a 11-2 pro record. His only 2 losses have come against #1 contender Marlon Moraes and future #1 contender Zabit Magomedsharipov. Sodiq Yusuff has a lot of potential at 25 years old, but Moraes is by far the best fighter he’s ever gone against. I think Moraes is further along. Is slicker. And will be more patient to out point Yusuff to win by decision.
-Marina Rodriguez: Even though Jessica Aguilar is 36 years old, she’s proven that she can out wrestle and beat fighters that are lacking in that area like Jodie Esquibel. Rodriguez was a bit of a mystery heading into her UFC debut being that she’s just been beating up tomato cans on the regional scene, but was able to beat a pretty good striker on the Contender Series and fought lower tier gate keeper Randa Markos to a draw. I think Markos is better than Aguilar at this point and Rodriguez will probably have improved take down defense coming into this fight. Rodriguez by decision.
-Desmond Green: Green can still serve a purpose in the UFC as a lower tier gate keeper with his above average wrestling. Ross Pearson is nearing the end of his career and doesn’t have the skills to offset Green’s take downs and top control. Green wins by lackluster decision.
-Enrique Barzola: Kevin Aguilar is not chopped liver. He’s got a shiny 16-1 pro record. 30 years old in his prime. Near plus striking. Average wrestling. And his last win over Rick Glenn was pretty impressive. But Aguilar has a weakness and it’s that he lacks take down defense, which will cost him the fight against Barzola. Barzola is 5-1 in the UFC. 29 years old. And wins fights with his wrestling and cardio. And Barzola will have no problem winning with his usual formula by decision.
-Kevin Holland: Very good opening fight here. I really like Gerald Meerschaert. He’s proven that he has a home in the UFC with probably the ceiling of a mid tier gate keeper which is pretty successful. But he takes on a very promising prospect in Holland who is 26 years old and much more well rounded than Meerschaert. I see Holland having enough take down defense to keep the fight on the feet and he’ll easily out strike Meerschaert to win by decision.
-Ray Borg: Casey Kenney makes a lightning quick return to fighting, being that he just fought in LFA last Friday and now fights former title contender Borg on less than a week’s notice. UFC fans should be familiar with Kenney as he’s fought on the Contender Series twice going 1-1 there. Kenney has above average wrestling and above average submissions. In his last fight, he increased his ceiling as he showed improved stand up getting his first career knockout over a very good prospect. But even on a full camp, Borg would be way, way too much, too soon for Kenney. In Kenney’s 2nd Contender Series fight, he lost to 36 year old Adam Antolin, who now has a 12-5 pro record. Kenney was out grappled in that fight and lost. So if Kenney wasn’t able to out grapple Antolin, his chances of beating Borg, who has plus plus grappling is pretty slim. Borg hasn’t fought in a year and a half, but will remind everyone in this fight how good he is. 1st round submission win for Borg.
-Sabina Mazo: Mazo has the type of profile that spells elite prospect. 21 years old. And in her MMA debut, beat an opponent with a 4-0 record. In her 2nd fight, beat an opponent with an 8-0 record. Not only is it rare for a fighter who’s just turning pro to take on such high level competition, but it’s even more rare to beat them. Mazo has plus striking. That’s her calling card. And from what I know, her take down defense is above average. She takes on Maryna Moroz, who’s fighting at 125 lbs for the first time in the UFC. 3-3 in the octagon so far. Grappler. But I don’t think Moroz is going to be able to take Mazo down and that’s going to determine the fight. Mazo outstrikes Moroz and wins the decision.
-Alex Perez: I’m now convinced that not only is Perez a contender, but he’s likely to get a title shot within a couple years. He’s moving up to 135 lbs for the first time, but I think it’ll be really good for him as 125 lbs was such a tough cut. Perez has plus wrestling, near plus grappling, and plus plus knockout power. Mark de la Rosa is a decent prospect. 24 years old. 2-1 in the UFC so far. Submission specialist. But he’s not going to be able to take Perez down and will have no answer on the feet. Quick 1st round knockout for Perez.