Holloway vs Poirier II, Gastelum vs Adesanya, Anders vs Rountree Fight Picks

-Max Holloway: In asking myself how good is Holloway, all I need to do is look at his last fight. Like, I really thought Brian Ortega was going to beat him. So for Holloway to finish Ortega was really special. I think Holloway has found a formula where he waits around for the middle of the fight to really unload on his opponents. Dustin Poirier is a worthy opponent. And he might be able to test Holloway in the cardio. But Poirier’s chin has proven he can be knocked out. Even by the likes of Michael Johnson. Both fighters are well rounded, but I think fight plays out on the feet. Poirier’s best chance of winning this fight is somehow out striking Holloway, but even if he does land more, I don’t think his chin holds. So I’m going with Holloway by knockout in the 4th round.

-Israel Adesanya: I see no path to victory for Kelvin Gastelum in this fight. His best tool is his plus striking. That’s how he’s broken through the past couple years. He started out with above average wrestling as his base, but his striking has grown leaps and bounds. But is his striking better than Adesanya’s? No way. Is Gastelum’s wrestling good enough to take Adesanya down? I predict no, based on the fact that I think Derek Brunson has better wrestling than Gastelum and Brunson got nowhere close to taking Adesanya down. Does Gastelum have better cardio? I’d say no based on how tired Gastelum got towards the end in his last fight with Jacare Souza. So for me, it’s an easy pick. Adesanya takes his time and stays patient in this fight. Tires Gastelum out and knocks Gastelum in the 3rd round.

-Khalil Rountree: UPSET SPECIAL 1: This should be a fun fight while it lasts. Rountree is better than his 7-3 pro record would indicate. Because light heavyweight is such a shallow division, he made his UFC debut with a 4-0 pro record. He’s 3-3 in the UFC, but is still developing at 29 years old. Rountree has plus plus power. But he has flaws in his technical striking as shown in getting out struck by Andrew Sanchez and Johnny Walker. Eryk Anders is also 3-3 in the UFC, but he has 2 close split decision losses. One to Lyoto Machida and the other, he was out grappled by Elias Theodorou. Now Anders is moving up to 205 lbs for the first time and the trend these days is that the former middleweights are doing well. I do think Anders has better technical striking and will knock Rountree out in a crazy 1st round. But I’m picking Rountree because even though the narrative right now is Anders is so young in the sport, Rountree is even younger with only 10 pro fights. 4 pro fights less than Anders. And Elias Theodorou and Thiago Santos are really good, I don’t fault Anders losing to them. But Anders really didn’t look that good in his last win over Tim Williams. He was actually in danger of losing that fight by decision until Anders knocked him out. And Johnny Walker has recently proved that getting knocked out by him isn’t that bad. Before that, Rountree had 3 first round knockouts in a row, including one over accomplished striker Gokhan Saki. I’m going to go Rountree by 1st round knockout.

-Alan Jouban: Yes, Dwight Grant looked a lot better in his last fight against Carlo Pedersoli Jr. But based on how he looked against Zak Ottow, I’m still not sold. Especially with Grant being 34 years old. Grant has near plus power, but the striking itself is average. And he runs into problems when his opponent has better technique, as seen in the Ottow fight. Jouban is a solid mid tier gate keeper. 7-4 in the UFC. Has plus striking. He can get knocked out by better strikers or lose when he gets taken down. Grant doesn’t pose a threat in either area and I see Jouban knocking Grant out in the 2nd.

-Ovince St. Preux: There’s two big factors working against Nikita Krylov in this fight. The first is that these two already fought before and St. Preux submitted Krylov in a minute and a half. So mentally, it’s going to be tough. And the second is that Jan Blachowicz and St. Preux are pretty similar fighters and Krylov had no answer for Blachowicz’s take downs. And I think it’s highly unlikely that Krylov has improved his take down defense enough in the last 6 months from stopping St. Preux from doing what he did in their first fight which is take Krylov down and submit him. 1st round. Again.

-Jalin Turner: Matt Frevola is a decent prospect, but his ground game is a little ahead of his take down game. He’s 28 years old and he still has time to get better in that area. But he’s also shown that he can get out struck and knocked out if he’s not able to take his opponent down and I think that’s what happens here with Turner, who’s 23 years old and a top prospect. Turner has near plus striking and plus knockout power. I’ll go with a Turner knockout in the 2nd round.

-Alex Pantoja: Interesting stylistic matchup. Pantoja is 4-1 in the UFC. And his only loss is to Dustin Ortiz. And it’s tempting to say that if Pantoja was out wrestled by Ortiz, than Wilson Reis will be able to do the same thing. But in Pantoja’s next fight after Ortiz, he took on top grappler Brandon Moreno and was able to keep the fight on the feet by showing vastly improved grappling. Reis has plus wrestling and plus submissions so this fight will really be determined by whether or not Reis can get Pantoja to the ground. I’m predicting Pantoja stuffs the take downs and easily out strikes Reis for the decision win.

-Zelim Imadaev: I don’t think Max Griffin is that great. Especially after just losing to Thiago Alves. But Griffin has above average striking, is durable and does have 2 wins in the UFC. 2-4 UFC record. And It’s possible he’s too much, too soon for Imadaev. Because Imadaev has never fought anybody, just tomato cans and journeymen. 24 years old. 8-0 pro record, all 8 wins coming by knockout. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick based on projection. I project that Imadaev will be able to handle the jitters and will out strike Griffin. After all, if Thiago Alves was. Imadaev by decision.

-Boston Salmon: I’m not really sold on either fighter long term. 2 fights ago, Salmon lost to a journeyman fighter who was able to outgrapple Salmon. And 3 fights ago, Khalid Taha lost to a journeyman that was able to out wrestle him. Both are strikers mainly. I think that Salmon has the better striking from him beating a quality opponent in Ricky Turcios. Salmon wins the stand up and wins the decision.

-Curtis Millender: UPSET SPECIAL 2: There’s a lot of similarities to Millender and Geoff Neal. Neal is who Belal Muhammad fought and lost to in his last fight. Neal was able to keep the fight on the feet, was able to keep distance and prevent Muhammad from clinching or using his wrestling. I think Millender will be able to utilize a similar game plan and out strikes Muhammad to win by decision.

-Montel Jackson: Not only was I impressed by Jackson being able to beat a solid gate keeper in Brian Kelleher, but I was even more impressed that Jackson finished the fight with his 1st career submission. And in less than 2 minutes! Jackson only has 8 pro fights. 26 years old. But to see him the development in his grappling really increases his ceiling. He takes on another improving bantamweight in Andre Soukhamthath. 30 years old. Looks like he could be a good lower tier gate keeper if the UFC lets him hang around. Plus knockout power, but his striking technique is average. Also has above average wrestling. The story on Soukhamthath is that if he goes against a better striker and can’t take the opponent down, he loses. And that’s exactly what Jackson is. Jackson will keep the fight on the feet and out point Soukhamthath for a decision win.

-Poliana Botelho: Pretty interesting fight. Lauren Mueller took a big step back losing to Wu Yanan last time out, a fight I was pretty confident Mueller would win. Botelho is also coming off a loss, but she lost to contender Cynthia Calvillo, due to Calvillo taking her down. Now, you could say that the matchup works well for Mueller, being that her best tool is her above average wrestling. But I think Calvillo’s grappling and wrestling are on a way higher level than Mueller’s. I think Botelho learns from the Calvillo loss. Gets a lot better at stuffing take downs, keeps the fight standing up and out strikes Mueller to win by decision.

-Brandon Davis: Fun fact about Randy Costa who’s making his UFC debut. His pro record is 4-0 and all 4 of his wins have been knockouts in less than 1 minute. His longest fight has been 46 seconds. Seems really impressive right? I mean, it kind of is, except that 3 of the 4 wins have come against fighters that don’t have a single pro win. 0-1, 0-1 and 0-5. The other win Costa has is over a fighter with a 5-8 record. So now Costa will make a very, very steep jump up in competition. Is not used to fighting a 3 round fight, let alone a 1 round fight. And to make matters worse, he takes on Davis, who’s main tool is plus cardio and plus volume striking. Expect a blitz from Costa. Davis will weather it. And Costa will start to wilt in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I except a Davis knockout in the 3rd round, mostly from Davis’ pressure.

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