Overeem vs Oleynik, Makhachev vs Tsarukyan, Pavlovich vs Golm Fight Picks

-Alexey Oleynik: Oleynik is one of those rare fighters that is still getting better despite being 41 years old. 6-2 in the UFC now. Won 5 out of his last 6, losing to Curtis Blaydes. No shame there. His opponent Alistair Overeem has this perception that he’s one of the elite at heavyweight, but his UFC record is only 9-6. Yes, he has some big wins over big name fighters, but he loses a lot. He can be knocked out. And his other weakness is the ground. Oleynik is super unique in his grappling and ability to take guys down. I see Oleynik finding a way to take Overeem down and getting the submission win in the 1st round.

-Islam Makhachev: Looks like Makhachev is starting to get the Khabib treatment. Which means he’s having a hard time finding willing opponents. It’s the catch 22 where Makhachev is good enough to be finding the elite in the division, but he’s not a big enough name for the elite to be willing to fight him. No reward, all risk. It’s why it took so long for Khabib to finally get a title shot. Makhachev is 5-1 in the UFC now and takes on Arman Tsarukyan, who’s making his UFC debut. And Tsarukyan could turn out to be a good fighter. 22 years old. 13-1 pro record. Very well rounded. 5 knockouts. 5 submissions. But almost everybody he’s beaten is a can. The best guy he beat had a 6-0 pro record. He’s never gone against anybody remotely close to Makhachev’s level. And now he’s making his octagon debut in the co main event? That’s way, way too much to ask for from a 22 year old. Makhachev has plus plus wrestling. Plus submissions. And I’d grade his striking as now being above average. If his striking continues to get better where it’s close to plus, we’re looking at a guy who will eventually get a title shot. Makhachev by 1st round submission. Real quick.

-Sergei Pavlovich: Two of the better heavyweight prospects in the division here. 26 year old Pavlovich takes on 26 year old Marcelo Golm. Both are strikers. For either one to become a contender, they definitely have to round out their game. But for this fight, I like Pavlovich mostly on experience. Golm only has 8 pro fights and only fought cans outside the UFC, meanwhile Pavlovich has beaten a few fighters, that are arguably better than Golm. I’ll go with a Pavlovich 1st round knockout.

-Ivan Shtyrkov: Devin Clark has proven with his 3-3 UFC record to be a serviceable lower tier gate keeper. He’s got above average wrestling. Average striking. 30 years old. His opponent Shtyrkov is also 30 years old and looks like he could be a really good prospect. 15-0-1 pro record. And most of his wins have come against UFC veterans. And in his last 11 fights, there’s been no tomato cans at all. He’s not beating elite prospects on the rise, but he’s beating solid vets. And he’s well rounded too. Started his career looking like mostly a ground guy. But 5 of his last 10 wins have come via knockout. With how balanced Shtyrkov is, I don’t think Clark’s wrestling is good enough to take Shtyrkov down. I think fight plays on the feet. And Clark has been knocked out twice in the UFC. I think Shtyrkov knocks Clark out too. 2nd round.

-Antonina Shevchenko: Roxanne Modafferi has really had a career renaissance in the past couple years despite being in her mid 30’s. She’s learned to use take downs and top control a lot more and that most opponents have no answer for it. However, she runs into problems when she’s not able to take said opponent down like in her 2 losses to Sijara Eubanks. I think same applies here in her fight with Shevchenko. Shevchenko doesn’t have the wrestling chops that Eubanks has, but will be able to use her speed to keep distance. Won’t take too many risks and will strike from the outside to out point and win by decision.

-Alen Amedovski: It’s possible that Krzysztof Jotko could win this fight. He’s established himself as an effective mid tier gate keeper. 6-4 UFC record. Has plus striking. Above average take down defense. But the problem for him in this fight is that he’s lost 3 in a row. He’s been knocked out twice in a row. And he takes on Amedovski, who’s got an 8-0 pro record and all 8 of his wins have come by knockout. And he’s knocked out some quality prospects. I have no clue how good Amedovski’s wrestling is or ground game, but being that this is going to be a stand up fight, I’m confident in Amedovski knocking out Jotko in the 1st round.

-Movsar Evloev: Evloev has the resume of an elite prospect. 10-0 pro record. Well rounded. And has beat some very good prospects before signing with the UFC. His opponent Sung Woo Choi could be pretty good too. 7-1 pro record. 26 years old. But he’s a one dimensional striker. And he lost to a 5-3 fighter could a couple years ago. I see Evloev taking Choi down and submitting him in the 1st round.

-Keita Nakamura: I’m surprised the UFC is giving Sultan Aliev another fight. He’s 34 years old. 1-2 in the UFC. His 1 win was a split decision against Bojan Velickovic, who was released a couple years ago. And he’s only had 2 fights in the past 3 years. He’s mainly a striker. Has close to average wrestling. He takes on Nakamura, who’s a decent lower tier gate keeper. 4-3 in the UFC. 34 years old. Has close to plus grappling and submissions. It’s a bad matchup for Aliev, he’s going to have no answer for Nakamura’s take downs and I see Nakamura winning by decision.

-Alex da Silva: Close fight, but I’m picking based on projection. And the biggest reason is that right after da Silva lost his first and only fight, he picked up his biggest win against a 7-1 grappler and submitted the grappler. Da Silva is 23 years old. 20-1 pro record, but 19 of the 20 wins have been over poor competition. Alexander Yakolev was probably the worst welterweight in the UFC right now with a 2-4 record. Now he’s cutting down to lightweight. And I’m skeptical that he’s going to be a better version of himself as he’s 34 years old. Both fighters are well rounded. Although I think da Silva has the better striking. That’s going to carry da Silva to a close decision win.

-Marcin Tybura: Could be a close fight. Shamil Abdurakhimov’s got a 4-2 UFC record. 37 years old. Tybura has a 4-3 UFC record. 33 years old. This fight is pretty likely to play out on the feet and think that Tybura’s striking is better, more technical, definitely has more power. And Abdurakhimov’s chin is suspect. Tybura by 2nd round knockout.

-Michal Oleksiejczuk: Anybody that can knock out a fighter as durable as Gian Villante has serious knockout power. And to do it in what is technically his UFC debut is even more impressive. Being that Oleksiejczuk is only 24 years old, he looks like a guy who’s going to become a contender and probably has a title shot in his future. He’s got plus striking. Plus power. Stylistically, Gadzhimurad Antigulov could prove to be a pretty good challenge to Oleksiejczuk in that Antigulov has above average grappling and plus submissions. Antigulov is 2-1 in the UFC so far. 32 years old. But Ion Cutelaba created a blueprint on how to beat Antigulov. That you can blitz and knock Antigulov out before he can get to the grappling. And I think Oleksiejczuk does the exact same thing. Oleksiejczuk with the 1st round knockout.

-Magomed Mustafaev: Not my most confident pick. Lots of unknowns in this fight. Mustafaev is coming off a 2 and a half year layoff. So who knows what he’ll look like. And Rafael Fiziev is making his UFC debut with a 6-0 pro record, with 5 knockouts and 1 submission. But all 6 wins have come against tomato cans. I’m picking Mustafaev because he’s more of a sure thing, with a 2-1 UFC record, including 2 knockouts over decent lower tier gate keepers. Fiziev will probably have the jitters and has never fought anybody close to the level Mustafaev is at. I’ll go with Mustafaev by decision.

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