
-Jack Hermansson: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Hermansson is a very unique fighter in the sense that he has a plus plus tool that’s very hard to stop. He went 1-1 in his first 2 UFC fights. Decision win over Scott Askham and losing to Cezar Ferreira. Since then he’s become a different fighter focusing on taking his opponent down and utilizing the best top game in the weight class. That formula has helped him win the last 5 out of 6 fights, only getting knocked out by contender Thiago Santos. And yes, Jacare Souza is really good. He’s 9-3 in the UFC and has only lost to champion Robert Whittaker and 2 title contenders. But styles make fights. And Hermansson will find a way to take Jacare down at some point, which normally wouldn’t be a problem for Jacare. But Hermansson’s top game is a different animal. I see Hermansson being able to posture up, reign down blows and TKO Jacare in the 1st round.
-Greg Hardy: Dmitry Smoliakov is as hand picked of an opponent as it gets. Smoliakov went 0-2 in the UFC. Was released. Picked up a win on a smaller show against an opponent with a 7-8 record. And the UFC has now resigned Smoliakov to fight Hardy. Smoliakov is 36 years old. 9-2 pro record, so it’s not like he’s a tomato can. But he’s only fought once in the last 2 years. Smoliakov is well rounded though and could pose a threat to Hardy with wrestling and take downs. But Hardy was on his way to beating Allen Crowder before he got himself disqualified. And Hardy did way better than expected in being able to get back to his feet. And Hardy’s cardio was actually better than Crowder’s. Cyril Asker proved that Smoliakov can be knocked out. Therefore I think we’re getting a 1st round Hardy knockout win.
-Mike Perry: UPSET SPECIAL 2: You could say that Perry’s development has stalled in his last 4 fights, losing 3 out of his last 4. But the reality is that when he entered the UFC, he was a one dimensional fighter with plus power and above average striking and he used it to knock out some decent fighters that he matched up well against. What’s really happened with Perry is that when he’s matched against someone with better technical striking like Alan Jouban or Santiago Ponzinibbio, he had no answer. Well Donald Cerrone took him down, he had no answer. Perry being 27 years old is still a developing fighter. His striking tool will probably develop plus. He just needs to round out his game. In this fight he’s matched up well against Alex Oliveira who has above average take down defense, above average striking and power. Oliveira is pretty well rounded, but lacks elite tools. Even though Perry lost to Cerrone he did show I thought a better approach. And it so happens that Oliveira’s weakest skill is take downs. I think the fight stays on the feet and Oliveira has shown he can be knocked out. I think we see a patient Perry who knocks Oliveira out in the 2nd round.
-Ion Cutelaba: My knee jerk reaction in picking this fight was to go with Glover Teixeira. That even though Teixeira is 39 years old, it’s been proven that Cutelaba doesn’t have much outside striking and Misha Cirkunov and Jared Canonier beat him because of that. However, Cutelaba had a breakthrough performance in his last fight against Gadzhimurad Antigulov, who has plus grappling. I thought for sure and picked Antigulov to take Cutelaba down and submit him in the 1st round. But Cutelaba, being 25 years old and developing at a rapid pace, had improved his take down defense a lot. Kept the fight on the feet and knocked Antigulov out in the 1st round. And I think that’s how the fight with Teixeira plays out. Teixeira fails to take him down. And Teixeira might have better striking technique, might land more, but Cutelaba has plus plus power and will end the fight in the 1st round.
-Cory Sandhagen: UPSET SPECIAL 3: John Lineker has a 12-3 UFC record. He’s 6-1 at 135 lbs. 1 loss, he was out struck by TJ Dillashaw. The other 2 losses came against wrestlers. And 26 year old Sandhagen, who’s 3-0 in the UFC so far, has plus wrestling. Despite Lineker’s success, he remains a pretty one dimensional fighter. His calling card is his plus plus power. Plus striking. And that’s about it. But if you can get him to the ground, he’s very beatable. I think Sandhagen does that and does enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Roosevelt Roberts: I’m still confused on why the UFC signed Thomas Gifford, he of the 14-7 pro record. Is it because they couldn’t find anybody to fight elite prospect Roberts? Is it because Roberts original opponent pulled out and they didn’t have as much time to book a better opponent? My only guess that makes sense is that Gifford lost 6 of his 7 fights when he was 19 years old to 21 years old. Now Gifford is 26 years old and has won 6 of his last 7. Either way, Roberts is one of the best prospects at 155 lbs and Gifford will have nothing for him. Roberts is well rounded. Plus striking. Plus grappling. He’s good everywhere. Gifford is a grappler. Roberts will keep the fight on the feet and knock Gifford out in the 1st round. Quick.
-Ben Saunders: UPSET SPECIAL 4: I’d rate Takashi Sato as an average prospect. 28 years old. 14-2 pro record. Has above average striking. In his last 3 fights, he beat 2 pretty good prospects. And then lost to a UFC vet. He takes on long time lower tier gate keeper Saunders. Saunders is a lot more well rounded. Has plus striking. Near plus power. Average grappling. I think there’s a pretty good chance Saunders can knock Sato out. But more likely, Saunders goes for the path of least resistance and that’s to take Sato down and submit him in the 2nd round.
-Augusto Sakai: Interesting fight. Andrei Arlovski is now 40 years old and at some point, his career is going to end. Starting in 2016, Arlovski went on to lose 5 fights in a row. Looked done. But then picked up 2 wins over Junior Albini and Stefan Struve. And now has lost 3 in a row to Tai Tuivasa, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Walt Harris. And if you look at Sakai, you’ll see that 3 years ago he fought journeyman Dan Charles to a draw and 2 years ago lost to UFC vet Cheick Kongo. But. Sakai is only 27 years old. So he was 24 and 25 when he couldn’t get those wins. Has a 10-2 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC so far, knocked out Chase Sherman. Has 3 wins in a row, all over quality heavyweight prospects. Sakai is a striker. And it’s possible that he has holes in his game when it comes to take down defense and grappling, but Arlovski won’t threaten him there in this fight. I think Sakai of 2017 loses to Arlovski, but Sakai of this year has developed and improved and I’m picking him to out point Arlovski on the feet to win by decision.
-Carla Esparza: Virna Jandiroba looks like a really good prospect. 14-0 pro record and making her UFC debut. Has plus grappling. And has beaten some really good competition in Invicta. But Esparza is one of the best upper tier gate keeper at 115 lbs. And dare I say, she looked like a contender in her win over Cynthia Calvillo and close split decision loss to Claudia Gadelha. Even though Esparza is 31 years old. she’s gotten better the past couple years. Esparza has plus wrestling and plus submissions. I just see no path to victory for Jandiroba. And being the veteran Esparza is, I see her wanting to keep the fight standing up, where she probably would have a big advantage. Esparza via decision.
-Gilbert Burns: Mike Davis goes against Burns on short notice. Davis is 0-1 in the UFC so far. He lost to possible contender Sodiq Yusuff. Davis is a striker. And normally, it’d be hard enough for Davis to beat Burns on a full camp, let alone short notice. I see Burns as becoming a contender in the next year or so. He’s know for his plus plus grappling, but has improved his striking to the point of it being close to plus as well. He’s 7-3 in the UFC. And the holes he still has is that he can get knocked out by better strikers like he did against Dan Hooker. And he hasn’t had an answer against wrestlers that can take him down. But Davis poses none of those threats. Burns will go for his bread and butter. Take down and submission in the 1st round.
-Jim Miller: Easy fight to pick. Jason Gonzalez hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. 1-2 in the UFC so far. 29 years old. 11-4 pro record. Somewhat well rounded, but his best tool is his grappling. And even though Miller has lost 5 out of his last 6 fights, his last win over Alex White last September convinced me he can still beat decent fighters. Miller’s wrestling will dictate where the fight goes. I think Miller keeps the fight on the feet and knocks Gonzalez out in the 2nd round.
-Angela Hill: Jessica Aguilar is 36 years old and has lost 4 of her last 5 fights. Her career is headed towards the end. The one opponent she beat? Jodie Esquibel. Esquibel is 32 years old. 0-2 in the UFC so far. I thought she’d be able to stuff Aguilar’s take downs but she wasn’t. Esquibel now takes on Hill who has above average striking and average wrestling. 34 years old. 3-6 UFC record. It’s possible Esquibel could out strike Hill on the feet, but the thing I do know is that if Aguilar could take Esquibel, Hill could too. So because of that I’m going with Hill by decision.
-Court McGee: I’m tempted to think that Dhiego Lima turned a corner in his last fight, a giant upset knockout win over Chad Laprise. But the reality is that just because Lima knocked out a quality fighter, it doesn’t change the fact that he still struggles with wrestlers, which is exactly what McGee is. And I’m not big on McGee either. But he quietly has put up a decent 8-6 UFC record which is really good. And he’s done that with grinding clinch work and take downs. I see a typical McGee fight playing out here and Lima having no answers for it. McGee by decision.