-Anthony Pettis: UPSET SPECIAL 1: We see it all the time, a fighter has a hard time making a weight cut. Moves up a class and is a much better version. It doesn’t happen to everybody, but I think that’s what we see with Pettis. And Pettis hasn’t been losing to nobodies at 155 lbs. Yes, he’s lost 6 out of his last 9 fights. And normally I’d say he’s probably lost his confidence. But he lost to Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, Max Holloway, Edson Barboza, Eddie Alvarez, and Rafael dos Anjos. Obviously, the very best of the best in the division. And I’m just not sold on Stephen Thompson being this top guy. He became a top guy when he beat Rory MacDonald back in 2016, but that was when MacDonald was coming off the most brutal loss of his career, the title fight rematch with Robbie Lawler. Then he fought Tyron Woodley and couldn’t out strike him for 2 fights. And got out struck by Darren Till. The pattern here to me is yes, he has great striking. But he’s not the best striker in the division. Plus, it seems like after every time Thompson fights, he’s out for awhile after with another injury. He has a hard time staying healthy. He’s 36 years old. And if Woodley can outstrike Thompson, I think Pettis can too. I’m going with the upset, Pettis by decision.
-Curtis Blaydes: I’m still not overly impressed with Justin Willis, despite his 4-0 UFC record and win over Mark Hunt last time out. He’s a slick boxer. Volume puncher. I just think his ceiling is limited. He’s only got 1 knockout in 4 UFC wins which is concerning considering how much power heavyweights have. And with Blaydes, the only hole we’ve seen in his game so far is that he can get knocked out. But I don’t see Willis as a threat to being able to do that. More than likely Blaydes takes Willis down, a spot he’s probably not that comfortable in and I see Blaydes TKO’ing Willis with ground and pound in the 1st round.
-Jesus Pinedo: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Pinedo has an extremely impressive 16-4 pro record at just 22 years old. He already won his UFC debut over Devin Powell. 3 of Pinedo’s 4 losses came when he was just 17 years old. He started as a striker, but 3 of his 4 submission wins have come in his last 5 fights, so he’s starting to become a lot more balanced. He takes on mid tier gate keeper John Makdessi who’s 9-6 in the UFC. But if Lando Vannata is capable of knocking Makdessi, I think Pinedo will be able to knock him out too. 2nd round.
-Deiveson Figueiredo: Striker vs grappler. Should be a #2 contender fight that puts the winner right after Joseph Benavidez for a title shot at 125 lbs. Jussier Formiga has been on a real roll, but he hasn’t evolved his game. He relies on his grappling and ground game to win fights but if he can’t take his opponent down, he has trouble. Figueiredo has a 15-0 pro record. 31 years old. 4-0 in the UFC. And the closest he came to losing was against Jarred Brooks, due to Brooks’ wrestling. Since then, Figueiredo’s take down defense has gotten a lot better and he showed it off in his last fight against John Moraga. I think Figueiredo will have the take down defense to keep the fight standing up and will knock Formiga out in the 2nd round.
-Luis Pena: Steven Peterson and Pena are somewhat similar fighters. Grappling is their best tool. Have improved striking. But Pena is a 25 year with a ton of talent and Peterson is more a journeyman. Pena has a 5-1 pro record and is rapidly getting better every fight. He started his career winning most of his fights using his plus wrestling to take his opponent down and submit them. But his striking has started to get a lot better and I think he keeps the fight on the feet and wins the striking exchanges to take the decision win.
-Maycee Barber: Very intriguing fight here. JJ Aldrich has been one of the most improved fighters in the past year or so, especially in out striking Polyana Viana. But Barber is possibly the #1 prospect in all of women’s MMA. Barber has plus wrestling, plus submissions, plus ground and pound. Above average striking. She doesn’t have any weaknesses which is super, super rare for a 20 year old fighter. Not only will Barber fight for the 125 lb title by maybe end of next year, but I predict she’ll be able to beat champion Valentina Shevchenko. Aldrich is very good and has a future as an upper tier gate keeper, but she’ll have no answer for Barber’s take downs and top game. Barber will cruise to a decision win.
-Bobby Moffett: There’s levels in MMA and although both Moffett and Bryce Mitchell would be classified as submission specialists, Moffett is coming off a big win over mid tier gate keeper Chas Skelly. And Mitchell barely squeaked out a majority decision win over fellow prospect Tyler Diamond in his last fight. I think Moffett’s grappling is at a way higher level right now and I think he takes Mitchell down and submits him in the 2nd round.
-Marlon Vera: Can Vera stuff Frankie Saenz’s take downs? That’s about the only path to victory Saenz has. 38 years old. 5-3 in the UFC. Has served as a solid mid tier gate keeper. Vera has contender upside. 26 years old. Came into the UFC as a grappler, but since has improved his striking a ton. I predict Vera is able to keep the fight on the feet where he’s going to have an advantage and will out point Saenz for the decision win.
-Alexis Davis: Davis is an effective upper tier gate keeper at 125 lbs. 6-3 in the UFC. Plus plus grappling. The tool is so good, she was able to stifle Liz Carmouche’s wrestling. She takes on Jennifer Maia who lost her UFC debut to Carmouche. Maia is known for her plus grappling but unfortunately for her, she’s going to be out grappled by Davis and in an unfamiliar position, not having any answers. Davis by decision.
-Randa Markos: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Battle of the lower tier gate keepers. Markos is 4-5-1 in the UFC. Angela Hill is 2-3. This will be a typical Markos fight in which the outcome will be determined based on if Markos can take her opponent down. In this fight, I do think Markos is able to take Hill down and will win a lackluster decision.
-Ryan MacDonald: UPSET SPECIAL 4: Interesting fight in that we don’t know exactly how good MacDonald is. He’s making his UFC debut. 10-0. 25 years old. Pretty well rounded, although his wrestling and ground game appear to be a little ahead of his striking. But he hasn’t fought a single quality prospect. He’s just beat up on tomato cans and journeymen. Chris Gutierrez will be the first real test. But I’m picking MacDonald because I don’t think Gutierrez’s upside is that high. Yes, he’s 27 years old. Still has time to develop. But he’s 12-4-1. And the guys he lost to are okay, but not great. 5 out of 12 times outside the UFC he couldn’t get the win. Gutierrez’s best tool is his striking. It’s above average. I think MacDonald will hold his own on the feet until he can take Gutierrez down and do enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Eric Shelton: I’m surprised the UFC decided to sign Jordan Espinosa, who I’d profile as a journeyman. 29 years old. 13-5 pro record. Probably got the contract after 2 wins on the Contender Series although he beat what I’d consider average competition. Grappler. He takes on Shelton who’s a decent lower tier gate keeper. Average wrestling. Average ground game. But enough wrestling skill to make it a stand up fight where Shelton will out point Espinosa for the decision win.