-Korean Zombie: UPSET SPECIAL 1: The Zombie was 1 second away from beating Yair Rodriguez. But unfortunately for him, he got knocked out by Rodriguez at the 4:59 mark. I think that was more of a fluke than anything else. I still think the Zombie will eventually get another title shot. He’s only 32 years old. His body doesn’t have any many miles on it due to him being away from the sport for 4 years. Zombie has had plus grappling for some time, but in 2011, his striking started to turn a corner. He even gave Jose Aldo problems back in 2013 when Aldo was in his prime. After Zombie out struck Rodriguez for 24 minutes and 59 seconds, I’d grade his striking as being a plus skill now. Meanwhile, Renato Moicano was on the verge of getting a title shot, but got knocked out by Aldo in his last fight. 30 years old. 5-2 in the UFC. He has big wins over Jeremy Stephens, Cub Swanson and Calvin Kattar. Moicano has plus grappling and has also improved his striking to where it’s pretty close to a plus tool. But Moicano lacks power. Doesn’t have a single knockout in his career. I see Moicano’s fight with the Zombie being on the feet, I don’t see Moicano being able to take the Zombie down. And on the feet, the Zombie is eventually going to land one of those power punches. 2nd round Korean Zombie knockout.
-John Lineker: Just because Lineker is coming off a close loss to Cory Sandhagen doesn’t mean Lineker’s skills have diminished any. He’s still only 28 years old. 12-4 in the UFC. Plus plus striking and power. I just don’t see how the first fight with Linker and Rob Font is any different than the first. Yes, Font has gotten better. 6-3 UFC record. 31 years old. Plus striking. Average grappling. If anything, I see Linker having more power now than they fought the first time. I think Lineker knocks Font out in the 1st round.
-Randy Brown: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Not sure what to make of Brown yet. 4-3 in the UFC. 28 years old. His first 2 losses in the UFC were coming against wrestlers who could take him down. Then he rebounded in his fight with Mickey Gall, stuffing the take downs and out striking Gall for the win. Next fight, he gets knocked out by Niko Price. So Brown is showing improvement in his take down defense to where it’s close to above average. But his striking isn’t really a plus tool yet either. Probably in the above average range. Probably the profile of a mid tier to lower tier gate keeper. He takes on Bryan Barbarena who’s got a similar profile. 5-4 in the UFC. 30 years old. Extremely durable. Above average wrestling. Average striking. Above average power. I think Brown’s wrestling is now good enough to keep the fight standing up. And even though Barbarena has more power, Brown has better technique and will be faster. Brown by decision.
-Montana de la Rosa: UPSET SPECIAL 3: It’s tempting to pick the more hyped and more experienced Andrea Lee. She’s 2-0 in the UFC so far. 10-2 pro record. She wasn’t in any danger in her fights against Veronica Macedo or Ashlee Evans-Smith, but Lee didn’t blow me away either. She’s well rounded, but doesn’t have any plus tools yet. Average striking. Above average grappling. De la Rosa is 24 years old. 10-4 pro record, but 4-1 in the UFC, only losing to Nicco Montano. De la Rosa is a submission specialist. 8 of her 10 wins have come by submission. Her grappling is a plus tool, with the possible ceiling of it becoming plus plus. And if you look at Lee’s record, clearly the pathway to beating her is putting Lee on her back and if you can, you can submit her. The grappling is obviously going to decide this fight. On the feet, Lee wins easily. But I think de la Rosa’s grappling is superior, she’ll get the take down and will finish with a submission win in the 2nd.
-Kevin Holland: Question for me in this fight is going to be how much Holland has developed from the last time we’ve seen him. And if he’s able to get to his power more often. Holland is 3-1 in the UFC so far. Only losing to title contender Thiago Santos. 26 years old. Is well rounded with plus striking, average power, above average grappling. He’s better everywhere than Alessio di Chirico. Di Chirico is 29 years old. 3-2 in the UFC. Lost to released fighters Bojan Velickovic and Eric Spicely. Eked out a split decision win over released fighter Garreth McLellan. He is coming off a split decision win over top prospect Julian Marquez but I think that has more to do with Marquez being exposed for having below average grappling. I think Holland mixes up his attacks and cruises to a decision win.
-Ashley Yoder: It’s super rare that a fighter starts their UFC career 0-4 and then they give said fighter one more chance, but that’s what happened to Yoder and she cashed in on it, beating Amanda Cooper. I think the big reason is they brought Yoder in to lose to Mackenzie Dern, but Yoder showed a ton of improvement, especially in her now above average grade wrestling and lost by a close split decision. Yoder is still only 1-4 in the UFC. 31 years old. But she’s still developing at she only has 10 pro fights. Her opponent is Syuri Kondo. 30 years old. 1-2 UFC record. Has average striking and that’s about it. I think the UFC gave Yoder a generous matchup here as Kondo will have no answer for Yoder’s wrestling and she’ll easily win via decision.
-Kevin Aguilar: Such a good fight here. Aguilar and Dan Ige are both really good and I think the winner of this fight is on his way to being a contender. Aguilar is 31 years old. And I wasn’t sure about Aguilar’s upside after seeing his fight in the Contender Series, getting out wrestled by Joey Gomez and barely squeaking by with a split decision win. But after that, Aguilar bounced back to out strike Rick Glenn and was able to stuff the plus wrestling of Enrique Barzola to win decisions. So he’s 3-0 in the UFC so far. I’ve upgraded Aguilar’s wrestling to plus. And he pairs it with almost plus striking, average power. Ige is 27 years old. 4-1 in the UFC. More well rounded. Plus grappling, average striking, although his striking has gotten a lot better the past couple years and it’s possible it could be at an above average level in this fight. Either way, I think this fight’s close. Aguilar’s wrestling will make this a stand up fight. And Aguilar is going to out point Ige on the feet to win by close split decision.
-Luis Pena: Pena is an elite prospect. 25 years old. 3-1 in the UFC if you count his TUF fight. Has plus wrestling, plus submissions. Has average striking, but seeing his length and range, I think his striking has the upside of a plus grade eventually. My only question with Pena is how much power he develops. He surprisingly fights Matt Wiman who hasn’t fought in almost 5 years. He’s coming out of retirement. In his day, Wiman was a successful mid tier gate keeper. 10-5 UFC record. Pretty well rounded with above average striking, wrestling and ground game. But Wiman is 35 years old and Pena is really good. I think Pena’s wrestling shines in this fight, takes Wiman down and submits him in the 1st round.
-Jairzinho Rozenstruik: I was skeptical of Rozenstruik at first due to the poor competition he beat up on, but Junior Albini is a pretty good heavyweight and Rozenstruik knocked him out like it was nothing. Rozenstruik is undefeated. 7-0 pro record. 31 years old. Has plus striking. He takes on Allen Crowder who’s 1-1 in the UFC. 29 years old. Has above average striking and close to average grappling. Is it possible Rozenstruik is one dimensional and has no takedown defense? Maybe. But I’m picking with Rozenstruik because I think the take down defense and or scrambles will be good enough to knock Crowder out in the 1st round.
-Ariane Lipski: Striker vs striker. Lipski is 25 years old. Lost her UFC debut to a surging title contender Joanne Calderwood, but it wasn’t a blowout. 11-4 pro record. Lipski has plus striking and close to average grappling. Molly McCann is similar. 29 years old. 1-1 in the UFC. 8-2 pro record. Got submitted by Gillian Robertson. Out struck Priscila Cachoeira. McCann has above average striking and not many other skills. Fight is cut and dry. Lipski has better striking than McCann. And because McCann is so one dimensional, she’ll have no answer. Lipski will cruise to a decision win.
-Deron Winn: This is a pretty interesting fight. Winn is getting a lot of hype right now, but Bruno Silva is no slouch. Silva has won 14 of his last 15 fights. 19-6 pro record. 29 years old. Has plus striking. Winn is also 29 years old. 5-0 pro record. Has plus wrestling and above average striking. Beat up 4 tomato cans and then picked up a decision win over Tom Lawlor, who still has legit skills. But this fight interests me because Winn is still really green. And Silva has a ton more experience and has been on a real roll. So if Winn isn’t able to get his take downs, he’s likely to get knocked out. But Silva’s take down defense is average. Winn has the ability to take Silva down and because of that Winn will win by decision.
-Andre Ewell: Ewell and Anderson dos Santos are both getting a shot in the UFC because of their willingness to take short notice fights. Except Ewell actually upset Renan Barao, which says a lot more about how far Barao has fallen than Ewell’s abilities. Ewell then lost to top prospect Nathaniel Wood and here he is with a 1-1 UFC record. 14-5 pro record. 31 years old. Not really a prospect. Has average striking. Dos Santos is even more of a journyman. 20-7 pro record. 33 years old. Has average grappling and with a recent knockout over a 7-1 prospect, his striking might pretty close to average as well. In this fight, I think Ewell has the athleticism to keep the fight on the feet and will out strike dos Santos for a decision win.