Baeza vs Reyna, Cunningham vs Johnson, Gonzales vs Zane Fight Picks

-Victor Reyna: It’s not that often that a guy takes a fight on short notice and I think he has a better chance of winning than the original fighter. Reyna is 10-3. 32 years old. Has above average striking and has beat a few pretty good prospects. Lost his 2nd fight. Got out wrestled by a wrestler. And lost to Kevin Holland, who has a 4-1 UFC record. Reyna is more of a high floor, low ceiling guy. Miguel Baeza is the striker. 26 years old. 5-0. He has more upside and potential than Reyna, but based on how Baeza struggled to beat a 5-2 striker on the feet, winning by split decision, I’d grade Baeza’s striking as average for now, with potential to get better. And yes, Reyna is taking this fight on short notice. His cardio might not be what it usually is. But I think the best strategy for Reyna is to blitz Baeza in the first round and go all out for the knockout. I think he gets it done.

-Alton Cunningham: I’m not sure what the UFC sees in Tony Johnson. Yes, he has a 6-2 pro record. But he’s 36 years old. Has only fought once since 2013. And his resume when he has fought isn’t that strong to begin with. He’s only beaten tomato cans. He has a split decision win over a regional journeyman. I don’t get it. Tool wise, Johnson has average striking and that’s it. Cunningham is 25 years old. 4-1. He’s got above average striking and will knock Johnson out in the 1st round.

-Justin Gonzales: You look at Zach Zane’s 10-6 pro record and ask yourself, why is he getting this opportunity on the Contender Series? Well, he started his career 4-6, but now he’s won 6 in a row beating some decent prospects. Zane is 29 years old. Has slightly above average grappling. But his grappling isn’t good enough to stop Gonzales from using his near plus wrestling to put him on his back. Gonzales is 5-0. 28 years old. And was pretty impressive in using his ground and pound to knock out 6-0 Derek Brenon. I’ll go with Gonzales by 2nd round TKO.

-Kyle Daukaus: This fight will end quick. After Daukaus’ first 4 fights, it’s hard to get a handle on how good his grappling was because he was beating up tomato cans. But his submission win over 12-2 UFC vet Jonavin Webb was an eye opener. Daukaus is 5-0. 26 years old. Has at least above average grappling. Submission specialist. Michael Lombardo is 4-1. 29 years old. Has average wrestling, but the skill is not good enough to keep the fight on the feet. Daukaus will take Lombardo down and pick up the 1st round submission.

-Richie Santiago: Both Santiago and Miles Johns are decent prospects. Similar in some ways. Santiago is 26 years old. 7-1 record. Johns is 25 years old and 7-0. But the main difference is that Sanitago has the best tool and that’s his grappling. Specifically, his rear naked chokes as 6 of Santiago’s 7 wins have come via rear naked choke. Johns is a lot more well rounded. And Johns has beat some above average competition, but won by decisions. Santiago’s submission win over a solid grappler tell me his grappling is at least an above average grade. Could be plus. Johns’ skills are average across the board. Santiago is going to take Johns down and submit him in the 1st round.