-Jeremy Stephens: I could be really wrong here, but I’m still not sold on Yair Rodriguez being an elite top 5 fighter. Rodriguez is 26 years old. 7-1 in the UFC. But the quality of competition he’s beat isn’t that good. Beat Charles Rosa by split decision. His biggest wins are a knockout over Andre Fili and a fluke knockout over the Korean Zombie. Zombie was about to win that fight, but thanks to a lucky shot with 1 second left, Rodriguez got the win. Out of the 7 UFC wins, only 3 of them were knockouts and 1 of the knockouts was against 2017 BJ Penn and the 1 over the Korean Zombie. So the idea that he’s some kind of knockout artist isn’t accurate. Stephens is still only 33 years old. And even though he’s had an insane 30 career UFC fights, he’s still somehow in his prime. 8-7 UFC record at 145 lbs. Has only lost to the top 10 in the division. Plus striking. Average wrestling. And the wrestling part is important because if Stephens gets out struck, he could probably take Rodriguez down as a pathway to win. But ultimately, I think they stand and trade and Stephens picks up the 1st round knockout.
-Alexa Grasso: This is going to be a razor close fight. Grasso is 26 years old. 3-2 UFC record. Lost to Tatiana Suarez and Felice Herrig. But her last win was the biggest of her carrer, a dominant win over contender Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Grasso has plus striking paired with average power. Esparza is 31 years old. 5-4 UFC record. Has only lost to the top 5 in the division plus a split decision loss over Randa Markos. Esparza has plus wrestling, above average striking, average power, and average submissions. Very well rounded. Really, I think this fight will be similar to the Grasso vs Markos fight where Grasso was taken down a few times. Got back up. Kept the fight on the feet long enough to score points with strikes and take the decision win. Esparza and Markos’ wrestling is pretty equal. We’re going to see a better version of Grasso in this fight. I think Grasso will get taken down a few times but will get back up and use her speed to keep the fight on the feet long enough and win the striking exchanges to pick up a close split decision win.
-Brandon Moreno: Askar Askarov is a top prospect but stylistically, it’s a great matchup for Moreno. Askarov is 26 years old. 10-0 pro record. Has wins over a handful of quality prospects. Above average wrestling and submissions. Moreno is 25 years old. 4-2 UFC record. Has only lost to contenders Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja. Biggest win of his career came over Dustin Ortiz. Plus grappling. Average striking. And that Ortiz win really makes me confident in picking Moreno. And even if Moreno’s grappling isn’t better than Askarov’s, I’m pretty sure Moreno will be able to stuff take downs, make the fight a stand up fight if he wants to and out strike Askarov. Ultimately, I think Moreno will mix and match the strikes and the take downs and will do enough to win via decision.
-Irene Aldana: It’s a shame than Marion Reneau had to pull out of this fight on 7 days notice. Vanessa Melo steps in. 31 years old. 9-5 pro record. Journey woman, except she does have a win over Molly McCann, but that fight was only McCann’s 2nd pro fight. All tools below average. But this fight does provide Aldana an opportunity to take a step forward. Aldana is 31 years old. 3-3 in the UFC. But the losses came against title contenders Katlyn Chookagian and Raquel Pennington. Both were split decision losses. The other loss was against Leslie Smith back in her UFC debut. She’s got plus striking paired with average power. And close to average grappling. She should obviously beat Melo. But she can take a step forward by being dominant in this fight. I expect her to do that and pick up a 1st round knockout.
-Martin Bravo: Steven Petersen is 29 years old. 1-4 in the UFC. 1 win was a split decision over Matt Bessette. Pro record is 17-9. Has average grappling. Bravo is more on the upswing. 25 years old. 11-2 pro record. 1-2 UFC record. Has a nice knockout over Claudio Puelles. But got knocked by Humberto Bandenay and lost a close split decision to Alex Caceres. Has average striking and average grappling. Petersen might have the advantage on the ground but I think Bravo’s take down defense is good enough to keep the fight standing up where I favor him. Because of how durable Petersen is, I’m picking Bravo to win by decision.
-Jose Quinonez: Carlos Huachin is 23 years old. 10-4 pro record. Got knocked out by Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut. No shame. All wins over cans. But probably the best fight that I think shows where Huachin is at is last year when he fought a quality prospect, a 6-0 striker, to a draw. Huachin has average striking. Quinonez is 29 years old. 5-3 in the UFC. All his UFC wins are over below average competition. But 2 of the 3 losses were against quality guys like Alejandro Perez and Nathaniel Wood. So Quinonez is in that lower tier gate keeper range. Quinonez above average striking, but it’s paired with below average power. So he wins his fights on volume, pace, and cardio. I’m picking Quinonez because I think he has the better striking. Huachin, being a younger, less experienced guy, is likely to fade more quickly than Quinonez. I just think this is the typical Quinonez fight where he stays at range and will out point Huachin to win by decision.
-Kyle Nelson: I was really impressed with Nelson when he made his UFC debut against Diego Ferreira on short notice. Nelson had Ferreira rocked and almost finished him. 28 years old. Got submitted by Matt Sayles in his 2nd fight. Not too much shame there as Sayles is a top prospect. Nelson does have a few wins over decent prospects outside the UFC. I’d rate Nelson as having average striking and average grappling. Marco Polo Reyes started his UFC career with a bang. He started off 4-1 in the UFC with 4 knockout wins, including knocking out Matt Frevola. And the loss was a knockout loss over James Vick. But then Reyes got knocked out twice in a row from Damir Hadzovic and Drew Dober. The Hadzovic loss was the biggest surprise to me. I grade Reyes as having above average striking, but the problem for him in this fight is I think his chin is gone. I think Reyes is probably a better striker, but if they trade, Nelson will eventually land a power shot to knock him out. And even if Nelson is losing the stand up, I think Nelson could take Reyes down and possibly submit him. Two very realistic paths to victory. I’m picking Nelson by 2nd round submission.
-Ariane Carnelossi: Angela Hill has had a decent run in the UFC as a lower tier gate keeper. 34 years old now. And now has a 3-5 UFC record. She’s got average striking and average wrestling, so she’ll beat grapplers or wrestlers that can’t take her down and have no striking. But she losses to other opponents that have better tools. Carnelossi is 26 years old. 12-1 pro record. All wins over cans except her last win was an impressive knockout over an 8-1 striker. Only loss came against UFC fighter Amanda Ribas in her pro debut. I have Carnelossi graded as having above average striking. I’m not 100% sure Carnelossi will have the take down defense to keep the fight on the feet but I’m predicting she will. And Carnelossi has better stand up than Hill. I like Carnelossi by decision.
-Sergio Pettis: I’m happy that Pettis is fighting again at 125 lbs as that’s his best weight class. Still only 26 years old. 5-2 in the UFC at flyweight. Has only lost to champion Henry Cejudo and top contender Jussier Formiga. And out of his wins, he’s beaten current #1 contender Joseph Benavidez, Brandon Moreno and Chris Cariaso. Those are some really big wins. Plus striking. paired with below average power. The lack of power is actually the biggest thing limiting Pettis’ ceiling. Tyson Nam is taking this fight on short notice. 35 years old. A journeyman with a 16-9 pro record making his UFC debut. He’s got average striking. Thing that’s interesting for me in this fight is that if Pettis is ever going to get a knockout, it’s here. I’ll go out on a limb and predict he does. 2nd round knockout.
-Paul Craig: Interesting fight with two submission specialists facing off. Craig is 31 years old. 3-4 UFC record. He’s got impressive submission wins over Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu. Basically the story of his career so far is if he can grab a hold of his opponent and take them down, he wins. If he gets knocked out, minus the submission loss to future title contender Jimmy Crute. Easy plus grappling. Vinicius Moreira is 0-2 in the UFC so far. 30 years old. Has submitted a couple decent prospects before making it to the UFC. Above average grappling. So usually when it’s grappler vs grappler, the fight ends up playing out on the feet. And who knows who has the better striking. But I’m picking Craig because I feel he’s got better grappling and predict that he’s actually able to submit Moreira. 2nd round.
-Sijara Eubanks: Really easy fight to pick. Everybody thinks Aspen Ladd is a future title contender and possible champion and Eubanks lost a very close decision to Ladd in her last fight out. Eubanks is 34 years old. 5-1 UFC record. She’s beaten Roxanne Modafferi twice. I grade her as having plus striking and plus wrestling. Bethe Correia is near the end of her career. 36 years old. 4-4-1 UFC record. Has only 1 win in her last 6 fights. But the win was over Jessica Eye at 135 lbs. And she fought Marion Reneau to a draw. So both are pretty good. The 4 losses were all against top 10 opponents. Problem though is I’d rank Eubanks as being in the top 5 best in the division. Correia’s striking is above average, but power is below average. I don’t see any path to Correia winning. I expect Eubanks’ striking to be better, but she could also use her wrestling to take Correia down as well. I’m predicting Eubanks to mix and match strikes with take downs to cruise to a decision win.
-Claudio Puelles: Marcos Mariano is in the UFC because he took a short notice fight against Lando Vannata back in February. As a reward, he’s getting another shot with a full camp. But his pro record is 6-5. 32 years old. He’s well rounded but all skills are below average. Puelles though is a prospect. 23 years old. 8-2 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC. Got knocked out by Martin Bravo. All wins outside the UFC all over cans. But he took a step forward in picking up his first UFC win by submitting an 8-1 striker. Puelles has average grappling. This is an easy fight to pick. And if Vannata was able to submit Mariano in the 1st round, a better grappler in Puelles will be able to do it too.