-Jack Hermansson: Hermansson took that next step in his last fight dominating perennial contender Jacare Souza. 31 years old. 7-2 UFC record. Hermansson is best known for his plus plus wrestling and submission game and now his striking on the feet is a plus grade. Jared Cannonier has looked better at 185 lbs, but the 2 wins he’s picked up is too small a sample size for me to think he has any chance beating Hermansson. 35 years old. 5-4 UFC record overall. The 2 knockout wins at middleweight were over David Branch and Anderson Silva. Both are legit gate keepers, but neither is elite. Cannoier’s got above average striking paired with plus power. And has average wrestling. I see this as the standard Hermansson fight. He’s going to take Cannoier down. Will mount. And ground and pound for a 1st round TKO win.
-Mark O. Madsen: Being that this fight is the co-main event, it’s easy to pick this fight. Madsen is a medal winning olympic wrestler. 34 years old. 8-0 pro record. All wins over cans. Has plus wrestling. Danilli Belluardo is 25 years old. 12-4 pro record. Got knocked by submission specialist Joel Alvarez. Belluardo’s striking is average at best. He’s going to have nothing for Madsen in this fight and no answer for the take downs. Only question is if Madsen finishes the fight. I say no, Madsen by decision.
-Gilbert Burns: I was really excited to find out that Burns was replacing Thiago Alves in taking on Gunnar Nelson. It’s a way better fight. Nelson is now 31 years old. 8-4 in the UFC. He’s at a crossroads right now of whether or not he can go to that next level. Burns is an excellent acid test. Nelson has plus grappling, but the tool hasn’t gone developed into a plus plus tool like I thought it could. Demian Maia out grappled him and in his last fight against Leon Edwards, Edwards was able to keep the fight on the feet long enough to land enough strikes to win by split decision. Looking at Nelson’s wins, he doesn’t really have any signature wins. Alex Oliveira is the best guy he’s beat. Meanwhile Burns is surging. 33 years old. 2-0 UFC record at 170 lbs. I think a much better weight class for him. His last fight, out striking Alexey Kunchenko really impressed me. Burns has always been known for his plus grappling, but now he’s rounded out his game to where he can beat Kunchenko at his own game. That type of thing creates contenders. I see Burns’ and Nelson’s grappling canceling each other out. Fight will play out on the feet and I see Burns knocking Nelson out in the 1st round.
-Khalil Rountree: Rountree blew me away with his striking in his last fight. Shows that with only 11 pro fights, he’s still getting better. 29 years old. 5-4 in the UFC. But he clearly showed off improved skills in dominating Eryk Anders for 3 rounds. Rountree’s striking is an easy plus. Ion Cutelaba is 25 years old. 3-3 UFC record. Has a lot of similarities to Rountree. Above average striking. And still developing. This fight comes down to who the better striker is currently in this moment. I think that’s Rountree and I’m going with Rountree by 2nd round knockout.
-Michal Oleksiejczuk: Oleksiejczuk has emerged as an elite prospect. 24 years old. 2-0 in the UFC. 14-2 pro record. He upset Khalil Rountree on short notice which was super impressive but the decision got over turned when Oleksiejczuk’s drug test came back positive. A year later, he returned to knockout a very durable Gian Villante and knocked out Ghadzhimurad Antigulov. And 24 years old at 205 lbs is extremely young. Oleksiejczuk has plus striking with the potential for the tool to become plus plus. Ovince St. Preux has been a successful gate keeper. 11-8 UFC record. 36 years old now. His tools have regressed to where his striking is only above average and his wrestling and submissions are average. OSP’s best chance to win is to take Oleksiejczuk down, but I think Oleksiejczuk will knock him out before he gets the chance. 1st round.
-Nicolas Dalby: Very interesting fight here. Dalby is 34 years old. 17-3 pro record. Had a previous stint in the UFC where he went 1-2-1. But it’s interesting in that he beat contender Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his UFC debut. Then fought contender Darren Till to a draw. So both of those guys are really good, but both strikers. Dalby has plus grappling and wrestling. He’s really good in the clinch and pushing guys against the fence. Then Dalby lost to Zak Cummings, got out struck and wasn’t able to take Cummings down or clinch him. And lost to Peter Sobotta who’s got above average grappling. Went through some personal problems, and now he’s back. Oliveira is a solid mid tier gate keeper. 31 years old. 4-3 in the UFC at 170 lbs. Plus striking. Above average take down defense. I remember back in 2017 when Oliveira fought wrestler Ryan LaFlare, stuffed the take downs and knocked him out. But I also remember last year when Oliveira fought Gunnar Nelson and was taken down pretty easily and was submitted. So there’s levels here. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Dalby is in his prime and will be able to take Oliveira down the same way Nelson was and will do enough on the ground to take the decision win.
-Alen Amedovski: John Phillips is 34 years old. 21-9 pro record. 0-3 UFC record. Lost to average competition. Has average striking. Amedovski has upside despite being 31 years old. 8-1 pro record. Lost his UFC debut to Krzysztof Jotko. Got out grappled. Amedovski has knocked out a couple decent, but green prospects outside the UFC. He’s got average striking. This is the type of matchup that gives Phillips the absolute best chance to win, but I think that Amedovski with 9 pro fights is still developing and his striking should be better. Because of how durable Phillips is, Amedovski wins this by decision.
-Alessio Di Chirico: Striker vs. striker. Makhmud Muradov steps in on 2 weeks notice to take on Di Chirico. Muradov is 29 years old. 22-6 pro record. Besides losing a fight due to a freak accident injury that stopped the fight, he’s won 15 in a row. Problem is that 21 of his 22 wins are over cans or journeymen. He does have a knockout win over a 9-2 striker. He’s got average striking. Di Chirico is 29 years old as well. 3-2 in the UFC. Lost 2 out of his first 3 fights. And the guys he lost to aren’t that great. Eric Spicely and Bojan Velickovic. And his win was a split decision win over Garreth McLellan. Not a strong start. But then he upset a pretty good prospect in Julian Marquez. A split decision win, but Di Chirico out struck him. Then he lost to Kevin Holland. The trend here is that Di Chirico struggles against grapplers, but his striking has improved to where it’s above average. This is going to be a stand up fight. Di Chirico has the experience, full training camp, and the better skill level to out point Muradov and win by decision.
-Ismail Naurdiev: Siyar Bahadurzada can still be a quality mid tier gate keeper. He’s 35 years old. 4-3 in the UFC. Has above average striking. Average grappling. But Naurdiev is an elite prospect. 23 years old. 18-3 pro record. Blew me away in his UFC debut with above average wrestling to stuff Michel Prazares’ take downs. But Chance Rencountre showed there’s levels in MMA and he’s got better wrestling. So Naurdiev lost due to the constant take downs. But considering he’s only 23 years old, he’s got a great foundation. His striking is an easy plus. Naurdiev is going to have a big speed advantage on Bahadurzada. And being how durable Bahadurzada is, I think Naurdiev will be smart, stay at range on the outside and cruise to a decision win.
-Brandon Davis: Davis is 29 years old. 3-4 in the UFC. He’s looked better the last couple fights at 135 lbs. He submitted a pretty good prospect and lost a split decision to Kyung Ho Kang. But this fight is at 145 lbs because the UFC wanted to add another fight to the Copenhagen card on short notice. Davis has above average striking paired with average power. Giga Chikadze is 31 years old. 7-2 pro record. Got submitted by a 9-2 striker on the Contender Series. All wins are over cans. Average striking. Easy pick. Davis has the better striking. Chikadze has no other tools to threaten Davis. Big question here is can Davis knock him out because the lack of power has been limiting Davis’ ceiling. I’m picking Davis to win by decision.
-Macy Chiasson: The way that Chiasson dominated a solid grappler like Sara Moras in her last fight has convinced me that Chiasson is on her way to getting a title shot. It’s just a matter of when, but she realistically, maybe in another year or two has a legit chance of beating Amanda Nunes with some more development. Chiasson is 28 years old. 5-0 in the UFC, counting the TUF fights. She also dominated in finishing Gina Mazany and Pannie Kianzad. Her striking is plus. Likely on it’s way to becoming plus plus. And she’s also got above average grappling. Lina Lansberg is 37 years old. 3-2 in the UFC at 135 lbs. She did look pretty good in beating a plus grappler in Tonya Evinger last time out, but her striking is only above average. She just got out struck by Yana Kunitskaya just last year. And if Kunitskaya was able to out strike her, Chiasson definitely will. Chiasson by 1st round knockout.
-Marc Diakiese: Diakiese improved by leaps and bounds in his last fight. 26 years old. 4-3 UFC record. Started his UFC career hot, won 3 in a row. But then lost a split decision to Drakkar Klose. And lost to a couple emerging contenders in Dan Hooker and Nasrat Haqparast. Diakiese has been known for his plus striking, but also for being one dimensional. So then he takes on a guy with above average grappling in Joe Duffy and I thought, no way Diakiese wins here. But Diakiese’s wrestling was much improved. He stuffed Duffy’s take downs and out struck him pretty easily. I’d say Diakiese’s wrestling is now at an average level. Lando Vannata is 27 years old. 2-3-2 in the UFC. The rare fighter that has not 1, but 2 UFC draws. Vannata is well rounded, but all the skills are average as of now. Still possible his striking could progress. I’m picking Diakiese because if Duffy wasn’t able to take Diakiese down, Vannata definitely won’t be able to. Fight will play out on the feet and Diakiese will out strike Vannata to win by decision.
-Jack Shore: Bad matchup for Nohelin Hernandez. 25 years old. Got submitted by Marlon Vera in his UFC debut. No shame. 9-3 pro record. All wins over cans except for a knockout win over current UFC fighter Martin Day, back when Day was 4-0. Hernandez has average striking paired with below average power. Shore is a top prospect. 24 years old. 11-0 pro record. He’s got submission wins and a knockout over a few quality prospects. Very well rounded. Above average striking and grappling. 2 of Hernandez’s 3 losses have come from him being submitted. I see Shore taking Hernandez down early and submitting him in the 1st round.