-Joanna Jedrzejczyk: I don’t see anyway Michelle Waterson wins this fight. Waterson is 33 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Got out struck by Tecia Torres a couple years ago. She has picked up her 2 biggest wins of her career in her last 2 fights, beating Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz by decision. Waterson has plus grappling. Above average striking paired with below average power. Joanna is 32 years old. 9-3 in the UFC. Only lost to Rose Namajunas and lost to Valentina Shevchenko at 125 lbs. Plus plus striking paired with average power. She wins with volume, speed, and cardio. Joanna also has plus wrestling. And the wrestling is going to block Waterson from getting to her best tool on the ground. Fight will play out on the feet. Joanna will dominate the stand up and will cruise to a decision win.
-Kron Gracie: It seems like the UFC made this matchup to really push Gracie. Cub Swanson is 35 years old. 10-7 UFC record. Lost 4 in a row. 3 of the 4 losses were against the top #5 in the division but his last fight, Swanson lost to Shane Burgos. Swanson’s striking has regressed to an above average grade. But this is a nightmare matchup for Swanson as grappling has been his big weakness. 4 of his last 6 losses have come by submission. And here’s Gracie, 31 years old. Plus grappling. Tool will likely become plus plus for MMA. 1st round submission win over a solid mid tier gate keeper in Alex Caceres in his UFC debut. Styles make fights and in this fight Gracie will take Swanson down and submit him in the 1st round.
-James Vick: Not too long ago that Vick was 9-1 in the UFC. 32 years old. But then fought 3 top #10 fighters and lost to all of them. Got knocked out in 2 of the 3. With Vick getting older and having a 6’3 frame, I think the move to 170 lbs will help him a ton. Plus striking. Above average grappling. Niko Price is 29 years old. 5-3 UFC record. He’s got quality knockout wins over Alan Jouban, Randy Brown and Tim Means. And the 3 losses are against quality guys. Price has plus power, but I have his striking technique as above average. The flaw in Price’s striking is he can be too aggressive and gets hit too much. Price also has average grappling. I think this fight ends up playing out on the feet and Vick will look much better. Price will trade and Vick will eventually land the power shot to end the fight. 1st round.
-MacKenzie Dern: This one could be closer than the experts think. Dern is 26 years old. 7-0 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. She struggled in her UFC debut beating Ashley Yoder by split decision but bounced back and looked impressive in submitting Amanda Cooper in the 1st round. Dern was also very impressive in submitting Montana de la Rosa, who had a 6-2 pro record at the time, in Dern’s 2nd pro fight. Plus grappling. Likely to become a plus plus tool as she continues to develop in MMA. Amanda Ribas is also 26 years old. 7-1 pro record. Submitted Emily Whitmire in her UFC debut. Also has wins over current UFC fighters Ariane Carnelossi and Micol DiSegni. But she also got knocked out by Polyana Viana, who’s got a 1-3 UFC record. Ribas has above average grappling and average striking. On the feet, Ribas could beat Dern. But I do think Dern’s grappling is on another tier than Ribas’ grappling. And I think that Dern will lock in the submission by the 2nd round.
-Luis Pena: Pena is 26 years old. 3-1 UFC record. Only loss was a split decision against fellow top prospect Michael Trizano. In Pena’s last fight, he knocked out Matt Wiman and I thought Pena’s striking had taken a step forward. Above average wrestling and grappling. And his striking is now up to an average grade with the potential to get even better. Matt Frevola is 29 years old. 2-1-1 in the UFC. I think the knockout loss to Marco Polo Reyes in 1 minute was a fluke, but fighting Lando Vannata to a draw is probably a better representation of where Frevola’s skills are at. Yet, he did take a step forward in beating Jalin Turner by decision last time out. Frevola has average wrestling and submissions. It’s likely that Pena’s wrestling is better than Frevola’s, but even if it’s not, the wrestling here will cancel each other out. Pena will make this a stand up fight. He’s got the better striking right now. Pena will win by decision.
-Gerald Meerschaert: Meerschaert is 31 years old. 5-3 UFC record. Has submission wins over Trevin Giles and Oskar Piechota. And 2 of the 3 losses were against title contenders Thiago Santos and Jack Hermansson. Meerschaert has plus grappling and his striking has improved enough to now be graded as average. Eryk Anders started his UFC career with a bunch of momentum. 32 years old. 3-3 UFC record at 185 lbs. Started 2-0. Lost a close split decision to Lyoto Machida. And he got knocked out by Thiago Santos. No shame in either fight. Lost a split decision to Elias Theodorou, who’s a tough guy to beat. Anders has shown to have above average striking. He can knock some guys out but he can also get out struck as well. And his wrestling is slightly above average. He was able to keep Markus Perez and Tim Williams from taking him down. But in this fight, Meerschaert is the best grappler Anders has ever gone against. Story of the fight will be Meerschaert taking Anders down. A spot Anders is not used to being in. And I see Meerschaert submitting Anders in the 1st round.
-Ryan Spann: Spann looks like an emerging contender. The biggest reason is because he was mainly a submission specialist. But the past few years, his hands have gotten better by leaps and bounds. 28 years old. 16-5 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC so far. 9 of his first 11 wins had come by submission. But now, 3 of his last 5 wins have come by knockout. After knocking out Lil’ Nog, I’d now have his striking at a plus grade, with above average grappling. Crazy to think his striking is probably now better than his grappling. Devin Clark is 31 years old. 4-3 in the UFC. He’s been knocked out by Alex Nicholson. All of his wins have come via wrestling and clinch work. But the wrestling tool is average. Spann will easily keep the fight on the feet and will knock Clark out in the 1st round.
-Thomas Gifford: On paper, Gifford looks like a young journeyman. 27 years old. 14-8 pro record. Lost his UFC debut to Roosevelt Roberts. But if you look underneath the hood, Gifford’s record doesn’t look great because almost every opponent he’s fought against outside the UFC has been a quality prospect. And 6 of his 8 losses came when he was between 20 years old to 22 years old. He went 6-1 after that. 12 of Gifford’s 14 wins have come via submission. But in the last 5 years, Gifford has made big improvements in his striking by knocking out a well rounded 7-0 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Based on these things, I have Gifford graded with above average grappling and average striking. Mike Davis is 27 years old. 6-2 pro record. He’s 0-2 in the UFC so far, but the losses have come against Sodiq Yusuff and Gilbert Burns. So no shame there. However, all 6 of Davis’ wins have been over cans. Like the best guy he beat was a 5-2 striker. I have Davis’ striking graded as average. Gifford and Davis on the feet is pretty close, but Gifford’s grappling will be the difference in this fight. Along with the full training camp. I’m picking Gifford to win by submission in the 2nd round.
-Alex Morono: Morono has put together a sneaky 5-2 UFC record. 29 years old. Coming into his prime. Lost 2 close decisions to Keita Nakamura and Jordan Mein. But his last 2 wins have been the biggest of his career over a potential contender in Kenan Song and lower tier gate keeper Zak Ottow. Morono’s biggest strength is how well rounded he is. But his striking has taken a step forward to where I’d now grade it as above average to pair with average wrestling and submissions. Max Griffin is 33 years old. 3-4 UFC record. He’s lost to Thiago Alves and Curtis Millender. Average striking. Morono should easily win this fight because he’s better everywhere. But I’ll pick him to take Griffin down and submit him by the 2nd round.
-Deiveson Figueiredo: Tim Elliott can be pretty inconsistent. One day he looks like a top 3 guy in the division, losing a competitive fight to Demetrius Johnson. Other nights he can get finished quick by guys like Ben Nguyen. Elliott is 32 years old. 8-6 UFC record. His biggest wins have come against Mark de la Rosa and Louis Smolka. Above average wrestling. Average submission game. Figueiredo is someone who’s eventually going to get a title shot. 31 years old. 5-1 UFC record. Plus striking paired with plus plus power. And his wrestling is probably now slightly above average. After seeing Figueiredo stuff Alex Pantoja’s take downs, I’m convinced he’ll be able to do the same with Elliott. Fight stays on the feet. But because of how durable Elliott is, I see Figueiredo winning by decision.
-Marlon Vera: Andre Ewell is 31 years old. 15-5 pro record. 2-1 in the UFC. He barely out struck Renan Barao who’s a shell of his former self. Barely beat journeyman Anderson dos Santos. All other wins are over cans. Average striking. Vera meanwhile is emerging as a potential contender. 26 years old. 8-4 UFC record. But he’s really improved in his last 3 fights finishing Frankie Saenz and Guido Cannetti. He’s well rounded with above average striking and above average grappling. This fight won’t be close. I see Vera taking Ewell down and submitting him in the 2nd round.
-Miguel Baeza: Baeza is 27 years old. 6-0 pro record. Beat a 10-3 striker by decision in his UFC debut on the Contender Series. All other wins over cans. Average striking. Hector Aldana is 31 years old. 1-3 UFC record. The losses came against a decent grappling prospect and 2 lower tier gate keeper types. His biggest win was a decision win over an 8-3 striker. All other wins over cans. Aldana’s striking is close to average, but not quite there. Baeza is going to out point Aldana on the feet and win by decision.
-Marvin Vettori: This is a really hard fight to pick and I think could go either way.Andrew Sanchez is 31 years old. 11-4 pro record. 4-2 UFC record. He should be 5-1 though. He made a bad strategic mistake in gassing out trying to finish Ryan Janes and went on to get knocked out on an empty gas tank. Also got knocked out by Anthony Smith. His wins over Khalil Rountree and Markus Perez are impressive though. Plus striking paired with average power. And above average wrestling. Vettori meanwhile is 25 years old. 3-2-1 UFC record. He got out grappled by Antonio Carlos Jr when he was 22 years old. No shame there. Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw. But I think he really broke out in his fight with Israel Adesanya. And besides Kelvin Gastelum, surprisingly, Vettori has come closest to beating Adesanya. Then Vettori was at his career best last time out beating a quality mid tier gate keeper in Cezar Ferreira. I grade him as having above average grappling and now average striking. So on paper, Sanchez should win this fight. But I’m picking Vettori on the projection that his grappling and striking continue to improve. Most likely, I think Vettori is able to take Sanchez down and does that often enough to win a close split decision.
-JJ Aldrich: Lauren Mueller is 27 years old. 2-2 UFC record. She’s got average wrestling which is what she used to pick up her UFC wins. But runs into problems when she can’t take her opponent down. Aldrich has really been coming into her own. Also 27 years old. 3-3 UFC record. But one loss came to Tatiana Suarez and the other came to Maycee Barber. Two potential champions. Aldrich has above average striking paired with average power. And has average wrestling. Aldrich has already shown that she was able to stuff take downs from Danielle Taylor and Polyana Vianna. I think she’s able to stuff Mueller’s take down attempts as well and will out point Mueller to win by decision.