-Chris Weidman: As the body gets older, it becomes harder and harder to cut weight. And also, when you put such a strain on the body to cut weight, even after dehydrating, the body isn’t able to absorb as much punishment as it normally would. Weidman is now 35 years old and thus, I think the move to 205 lbs is going to be a really good move for him. 10-4 UFC record. Started his UFC career 9-0. Has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. All 4 losses have come from knockouts. And the 1 win he has over Kelvin Gastelum, Weidman was almost knocked out in that fight too. It’s possible Weidman’s chin could be done like Luke Rockhold’s. But I still grade Weidman as having plus wrestling with his striking regressed to being above average. Dominick Reyes is 29 years old. Undefeated. 11-0 pro record. 5-0 UFC record. Reyes’ 2 biggest wins are a decision win over Ovince St. Preux and a split decision win over Volkan Oezdemir. Reyes dominated Oezdemir in the 1st round but his cardio started to gas out in the middle of the fight and he struggled in the 2nd half. Reyes has plus striking paired with above average power. Also has average wrestling. Reyes has never fought a wrestler the caliber of Weidman and I really think this fight could be like Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez from years ago where you have this hot prospect striker who realized he needed to get better at wrestling. I think Reyes will have no answer for the take downs and Weidman will win by submission in the 3rd round.
-Jeremy Stephens: I could be really wrong here, but I’m still not sold on Yair Rodriguez being an elite top 5 fighter. Rodriguez is 26 years old. 7-1 in the UFC. But the quality of competition he’s beat isn’t that good. Beat Charles Rosa by split decision. His biggest wins are a knockout over Andre Fili and a fluke knockout over the Korean Zombie. Zombie was about to win that fight, but thanks to a lucky shot with 1 second left, Rodriguez got the win. Out of the 7 UFC wins, only 3 of them were knockouts and 1 of the knockouts was against 2017 BJ Penn and the 1 over the Korean Zombie. So the idea that he’s some kind of knockout artist isn’t accurate. Stephens is still only 33 years old. And even though he’s had 30 career UFC fights, he’s still somehow in his prime. 8-7 UFC record at 145 lbs. Has only lost to the top 10 in the division. Plus striking. Average wrestling. And the wrestling part is important because if Stephens gets out struck, he could probably take Rodriguez down as a pathway to win. But ultimately, I think they stand and trade and Stephens picks up the 2nd round knockout.
-Maycee Barber: Both of these fighters have a bright future. Both are legit. Barber is 21 years old. 7-0 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC so far. All 3 wins are over quality fighters. Jamie Colleen. Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. Barber’s plus wrestling has carried her. And the tool is likely to develop into plus plus. Barber also has above average striking. Gillian Robertson is 24 years old. 4-2 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Barb Honchak. Got out grappled by Mayra Bueno. However, she’s finished all 4 of her wins. 3 submissions and picked up her 1st career knockout. She also has wins over quality fighters. Emily Whitmire. Molly McCann. Sarah Frota. Plus grappling. Striking has developed into being average. But the vast majority of fights, wrestling trumps grappling. Barber will have the ability to take Robertson down, stay out of submissions, and will eventually knock her out with the ground and pound. 1st round.
-Greg Hardy: My first reaction when seeing this fight announced was that Ben Sosoli is a step down for Hardy compared to his last opponent Juan Adams. Hardy is 31 years old. 3-1 in the UFC so far, although the loss was of the DQ variety. Most of Hardy’s wins were over fellow green fighters. Then he knocked out an average well rounded 10-3 prospect. But Adams was by far the best guy he’s fought against. Better than Allen Crowder. Hardy stuffed the take downs and knocked Adams out in 45 seconds. Hardy’s got plus striking, which has the upside of plus plus. And he’s elevated his wrestling to an average grade. Sosoli is 29 years old. 7-2 pro record. All wins over cans. Average striking. Sosoli is a pure striker who doesn’t bring any threat of take downs or submissions. This will be another quick Hardy knockout. 1st round. Probably under 3 minutes.
-Daniel Spitz: Tanner Boser is 28 years old. 16-5 pro record. All wins over cans. Has losses against a 17-7 striker and a well rounded 4-4 fighter. Those are bad losses. All tools below average. He’s best at striking. Spitz is 29 years old. 6-2 pro record. 1-2 in the UFC. Got out wrestled and out clinched by Mark Godbeer. Got knocked out by Walt Harris. Those aren’t horrible losses. Spitz did knock out Anthony Hamilton. Has average striking and average grappling. I think Spitz is way better and could win anywhere he wants. But I’ll pick the path of least resistance which is to take Boser down. 1st round submission win for Spitz.
-Darren Stewart: Really interested to see how this plays out. Stewart is 28 years old. 3-4 UFC record. Not great. UFC debut was at 205 lbs. Lost. 3-3 at 185 lbs. Got finished by Karl Roberson and Julian Marquez. Those guys are decent. At that point, I thought Stewart would be released but the UFC gave him one more chance and he knocked out Eric Spicely. Then knocked out Charles Byrd. Both are decent lower tier gate keeper types. Then he lost a close split decision to undefeated prodigy Edman Shahbazyan. No shame. Then out struck top prospect Bevon Lewis. So Stewart has some pretty good momentum now. His striking has developed and I’d now grade it as plus. Stewart also has average wrestling. Deron Winn has a lot of hype around him. 30 years old. 6-0 pro record. 4 wins over cans. Beat UFC vet Tom Lawlor by decision. But then struggled to beat Eric Spicely in a close fight in his UFC debut. Winn has above average wrestling and average striking. The question that will decide this fight is whether Winn can take Stewart down. I don’t think he’ll be able to. And on the feet, Stewart has a big advantage. I’m picking Stewart to knock Winn out in the 2nd round.
-Boston Salmon: Tricky fight to pick. Salmon is 28 years old. 6-2 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC so far. Started out 4-0. All wins over cans. Then knocked out a 6-2 striker. Then Salmon loses to a 4-3 grappler. Not good. Then bounces back in beating a 8-0 striker in his UFC debut. Follows that up by getting knocked out by Khalid Taha. So it’s been a mixed bag for Salmon in his last 4 fights. As of now, I’d grade Salmon as having striking that is slightly above average. Randy Costa is 25 years old. 4-1 pro record. He’s got signed to the UFC based on all 4 of his wins being 1st round knockouts. The longest fight he was in was 1 minute 11 seconds. But all
of those opponents are cans. 3 of the 4 opponents he knocked out had 0 wins. Then Costa fights Brandon Davis and gets submitted in the 2nd round. As of now, I’d grade Costa’s striking as average because he hasn’t beaten anybody that’s remotely close to good. This fight is striker vs striker and I have to pick Salmon because Costa hasn’t done anything to prove that he can beat decent competition. Salmon has beat a couple quality strikers and I think he’s going to use his speed and cardio to outpoint Costa to win via decision.
-Jonathan Pearce: I feel like I’m going out on a limb here. Pearce is a pretty average prospect. 27 years old. 7-3 pro record. He does have a knockout over a 5-1 striker. But 3 years ago, Pearce did lose to two different 1-0 grapplers. And the last few wins he has, it’s just been against other strikers. I’d grade Pearce as having average striking. So Pearce is absolutely an opponent that gives hometown fighter Joe Lauzon the best chance of winning. Lauzon is now 35 years old. 26 UFC fights in his career. Lots of mileage on his body. Has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Last 2 losses have been knockout losses. I think Lauzon’s grappling has regressed to being average. Reason I’m picking Pearce is I think Lauzon’s chin is done. I think Lauzon will trade with Pearce on the feet for a little bit before trying to take him down, but Pearce will blitz Lauzon and knock him out in the 1st round.
-Kevin Holland: Holland is a really hard guy to beat. 26 years old. 4-1 UFC record. Fought Thiago Santos at 205 lbs and was very crafty in staying in the fight. At 185 lbs in the UFC, he’s 4-0. His best win was over Gerald Meerschaert. Close split decision win. But showed off plus grappling that matched Meerschaert. Holland also has plus striking but it’s paired with power that’s close to average. Brendan Allen is a hot prospect. 23 years old. 12-3 pro record. Submitted a 6-1 striker in his UFC debut. Has wins over a couple other quality prospects. All 3 of his losses came against fighters currently in the UFC. Trevin Giles, Eryk Anders, and Anthony Hernandez. Has above average grappling. Striking is close to average. It’s an interesting fight where maybe Allen has developed and is better, but as of now, no way Allen will be able to take Holland down. This fight will play out on the feet. Holland is the much better striker. Holland by decision.
-Molly McCann: I’m not sure why the UFC signed Diana Belbita. 22 years old. 11-4 pro record. All wins over cans. 2 years ago, she beat a 0-2 fighter by majority decision. She’s also lost to a 4-3 fighter and got submitted by a 2-1 fighter. All her tools are below average but striking is her best tool. McCann really impressed me in her last fight. McCann is 28 years old. 9-2 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Got submitted by Gillian Robertson. No shame. And in her last fight, she pulled the upset in out striking Ariane Lipski. McCann has above average striking with power that is close to average. The biggest question in this fight is whether McCann finds a way to knock Belbita out. I’m predicting yes. Belbita is way out of her league here. McCann by knockout in the 2nd round.
-Sean Brady: Brady is a top prospect. 26 years old. 10-0 pro record. Beat a 5-0 wrestler and knocked out a 8-1 striker. He’s got above average wrestling and average striking. Court McGee has been a successful lower tier gate keeper. 34 years old now. 8-7 UFC record. He’s lost 3 of his last 4 fights. His last significant win was a split decision over Robert Whittaker at 170 lbs in 2013. McGee has average wrestling and submissions. Brady is going to keep the fight on the feet with his wrestling. Brady has the better striking and he’ll cruise to a decision win.
-Sean Woodson: Kyle Bochniak is 32 years old. 2-4 UFC record. Was able to beat Enrique Barzola by split decision. Has losses against Charles Rosa and Jeremy Kennedy. Have average wrestling. Woodson is 27 years old. Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. All other wins over cans. Average striking and average wrestling. I think Woodson’s wrestling is good enough to keep the fight on the feet where he’ll have a striking advantage. I’m going Woodson by decision.
-Manny Bermudez: Turns out Casey Kenney is really good. I know that Bermudez is for real, so to see Kenney out wrestle Bermudez was really something. But I’m still high on Bermudez. 25 years old. 3-1 UFC record. Submitted Benito Lopez in the 1st round. Plus grappling. Charles Rosa is 33 years old. 2-3 in the UFC. Hasn’t been active. 2 fights in the last 3 years. His best career win was beating Kyle Bochniak by out grappling him. Average grappling. Bermudez’s grappling is on a way higher level. He’s going to take Rosa down and submit him in the 1st round.