-Colby Covington: Say what you will about Covington’s personality, but he’s a legit, elite fighter. 31 years old. 10-1 UFC record. Only loss was to Warlley Alves. Went in for a take down and got caught in a guillotine choke. Covington’s wins have been over Dong Hyun Kim, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Robbie Lawler. Covington is a super unique fighter and he’s extremely similar to Max Holloway. And now that Covington has made it to doing 5 round fights, he’s going to be even harder to beat. Covington’s pro record is 15-1. Only 2 knockouts. 8 decision wins. Even more than Holloway, Covington wins on volume strikes and cardio. Striking has improved to where it’s now plus. Power is average. Wrestling is plus plus. Cardio is plus plus. Kamaru Usman is 32 years old. 10-0 UFC record. His biggest wins have been decisions over Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley. Usman’s wrestling is plus plus. Striking is above average. Usman might look like a similar fighter as Covington but there are stark contrasts. Usman relies a lot more on his wrestling to win. And that’s why Covington is a nightmare matchup for him. Covington is the only guy in the division Usman won’t be able to take down. His striking has improved. But it’s not on the level of Covington. To make matters worse, his cardio is definitely not on the same level. Yes, Usman has fought 3 five round fights in a row, but that’s with being able to take his opponent down when he wants to. Striking on the feet for 5 rounds is a completely different thing. I think Usman might win the first round by maybe landing a few power shots, but by the end of the 2nd round, Covington’s pace will start to really make a difference. I see Covington as a lock to win the last 3 rounds and am confident he wins by decision.
-Max Holloway: Holloway is inching himself closer to becoming the best featherweight of all time. I still think that’s Jose Aldo for now. A lot of people forget Aldo won 10 title fights in a row at 145 lbs. That’s nuts. Holloway in comparison has only won 5 title fights in a row at 145 lbs. Holloway is 27 years old. 17-3 in the UFC at 145 lbs. He also has the 1 loss to Dustin Poirier at 155 lbs. Back when Holloway was 20 years old, he lost to Porier at featherweight. And when e was 21 years old, he lost to Dennis Bermudez and Connor McGregor. Since then he’s won 14 fights in a row at 145 lbs over the likes of Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira, Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas, Anthony Pettis, Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, and Frankie Edgar. Striking is plus. Wrestling is plus. Cardio is plus plus and Holloway’s best tool he uses to win fights. Alexander Volkanovski is 31 years old. 7-0 UFC record. His biggest wins came in his last 2 fights, a knockout over Chad Mendes and then beating Aldo by decision. Context of the Mendes win is that Mendes hasn’t been the same since being knocked out by Frankie Edgar in 2015. Injuries caused him to not fight for almost 3 years. Volkanovski was able to beat Aldo by staying patient and putting a pace on Aldo he couldn’t keep up with. Volkanovski’s pro record is 20-1. Only 11 of his 20 wins have come by knockout. 6 have come by decision. He’s not a knockout artist. He failed to finish Shane Young, Mizuto Hirota, and Darren Elkins. Volkanovski wins his fights by being smart and focusing on not being hit. He has plus striking but it’s paired with above average power. His wrestling is also above average. In my opinion, Volkanovski isn’t more dangerous than the last big challenge Holloway beat which is Brian Ortega. But the way Volkanovski is a challenge is that because of his defense, he’s hard to beat. Volkanovski does have plus cardio, but Holloway’s is better. Holloway has better striking, better cardio, a big experience advantage. Fight could be close on the judges score cards, but I’m confident in saying that Holloway will out strike Volkanovski to win by decision.
-Amanda Nunes: Nunes has become the female version of Jon Jones. Not as much buzz for her fights because the majority of the public doesn’t think there’s anyone out there that has a chance to beat her. Nunes is 31 years old. 11-1 UFC record. Only loss was getting knocked out by Cat Zingano back in 2014. Nunes fought Germaine de Randamie back in 2013 and Nunes knocked her out. Nunes also has wins over a back in her prime Sara McMann. 2 wins over Valentina Shevchenko. Miesha Tate. Ronda Rousey. Cris Cyborg. Holly Holm. Striking is plus plus. She also has above average wrestling. De Randamie is 35 years old. 6-1 UFC record. The last time de Randamie fought twice in the same year was back in 2013. She’s one of the least active fighters. Her only loss in the UFC? Nunes. Her biggest wins were decisions over Holm and Raquel Pennington. And last time out, she blitzed Aspen Ladd to knock her out in 16 seconds. De Randamie’s striking is plus. I just don’t see anyway de Randamie wins. Vast majority of rematches are won by the fighter who won the first fight. That’s Nunes. Nunes is light years better than she was back in 2013 when she knocked de Randamie out in the first round. History is going to repeat itself here. Nunes by 1st round KO.
-Marlon Moraes: Lots of questions in this fight. Like how will Marlon Moraes bounce back from a devastating knockout loss against Henry Cejudo. 31 years old. 4-2 UFC record. Lost a split decision to Raphael Assuncao in his UFC debut. Then won a lackluster split decision over John Dodson. After that, Moraes really turned a corner in his development, knocking out Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. Then submitted Assuncao in a rematch. All in the 1st round. Moraes was inches away from finishing Cejudo in the 1st round. But Cejudo showed durability and heart. And Moraes gassed himself out, thus leading Cejudo to finish Moraes in the 3rd round. Not every fighter bounces back from that. But skill wise, striking is the rare plus plus grade. And submitting someone like Assuncao deserves a plus grade for his grappling. Jose Aldo has been around seemingly forever, but he’s only 33 years old. 18-4 record between the UFC and WEC. Since losing to Max Holloway twice, Aldo bounced back to knockout Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. But last time out lost a decision to Alexander Volkanovski. Aldo still has his signature plus striking to go along with plus wrestling. But now he’s moving down to 135 lbs?? The same Aldo who has struggled off and on to make 145 lbs and talked about eventually moving up to 155 lbs? Vast majority of the time when fighters in their 30’s cut more weight than they’re used to, it doesn’t go well. Most of the time, not all, but most of the time, cutting weight gets harder as you get older. The more extreme the cut is, the less damage your body is usually able to endure. Is it possible Aldo makes an easier cut than expected, has more power and knocks Moraes out? Sure. But the most likely outcome is the weight cut is hard. And his body won’t hold up as well. I think Moraes realizes he could’ve beat Cejudo had he not gassed out. Because of these things I’m picking Moraes to starch Aldo in the 1st round by knockout.
-Urijah Faber: I got to admit, the odds are influencing my pick. Do I think Petr Yan will win? Probably. His boxing technique will probably be the difference maker. But when I see odds that have Yan at -500 and Faber at +400, that’s just crazy. Maybe not crazy before Faber fought Ricky Simon, but then Faber knocked Simon out in less than a minute and that means something. Simon is a very talented fighter who looks like will be a contender. Faber is 40 years old now. Was retired for 2 and a half years. His body probably completely healed up. And knocked out Simon. In my opinion, from what I’ve seen over 16 plus years of watching MMA, the biggest way you can tell a fighter is near the end of their career is when their chin doesn’t hold up anymore and they get knocked out in consecutive fights. Faber has only been knocked out 3 times in his career. 2005, 2008 and 2014. So in the past 10 years, he’s been knocked out only once. Faber loss to Tyson Griffin, a much bigger guy, early in his career. After that, Faber only lost to champions. Mike Brown. Jose Aldo. Dominick Cruz. Renan Barao. Frankie Edgar. And then he lost to Jimmie Rivera, back when Rivera was on his run of winning 19 fights in a row. Rivera hasn’t been the same since getting knocked out by Marlon Moraes. More on that later. It’s hard to gague Faber’s skills when he’s fought only once in the last 3 years, but I’d grade Faber as having plus striking, at least above average wrestling. And above average submissions. Yan is 26 years old. 5-0 UFC record. Has wins over Douglas Silva de Andrade. John Dodson, and Jmmie Rivera. But the important context is that Dodson has never been the same since losing to Demetrius Johnson the 2nd time. Since that loss, Dodson has gone 3-4. Same with Rivera. He hasn’t been the same since getting knocked out by Marlon Moraes. Since that loss, Rivera has lacked confidence in his stand up. He beat Dodson. But got really outclassed in losing to Aljamain Sterling and then Yan. I rate Yan’s striking as plus paired with average power. And his wrestling is above average. Is is likely that this is a stand up fight, Yan out strikes Faber and has better cardio. Yeah that could happen. But Faber is a more well rounded fighter and if he can get Yan on the ground, Yan could be in trouble. I also think Faber has more power than Yan and could knock him out. My genuine opinion is that this fight is a near coin flip, so I have to go with the heavy underdog. I’m picking Faber by 1st round knockout.
-Mike Perry: I’m going with the upset here. Geoff Neal is favored and should be. 29 years old. 5-0 UFC record. His biggest wins have been a decision win over Belal Muhammaed and knocking out Niko Price. But he’s got a 12-2 pro record. He can be beat. He got submitted by a 1-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. No big deal. But he did get knocked out by Kevin Holland a couple years a ago outside the UFC. Striking is near plus. Not quite plus because he could be better defensively as seen in losing to Holland, and 2 of the 3 UFC knockouts were against below average competition. The other knockout to Niko Price, Price’s chin is questionable. Price has a 6-3 UFC record but all 3 of his losses came from being knocked out. (Technically, Price’s loss to Luque was a submission loss, but it was a power shot by Luque that dropped Price that led to that). Neal also has average wrestling. Perry is 28 years old, 6-5 UFC record. Early in his career, he got out struck by Alan Jouban, Santiago Ponzinibbio and his worst fight, got out struck by Max Griffin. Then there was the Donald Cerrone fight where Perry looked good early but made the mistake of taking Cerrone down which led to a submission loss. Since then, and after moving his camp to Fusion X in Florida, he’s improved a lot. He beat a really good striker in Alex Oliveira who had a 9-4 UFC record at the time. And Perry is coming off a split decision loss to emerging contender Vicente Luque, a fight that a lot of people thought Luque was going to starch Perry. Biggest thing Perry has improved is his patience and pace. I grade Perry’s striking as plus to go along with average wrestling. On paper, it looks like Neal should win this fight. But he hasn’t fought a guy as durable as Perry. Perry has never been knocked out, will hang around in the fight. But Neal can be knocked out, as seen in his fight with Holland, where I can’t emphasize enough that Holland isn’t a power puncher. I see the stand up fight being close to even before Perry lands a knockout blow. 2nd round.
-Irene Aldana: How good is Ketlen Vieira really? We’re going to find out in this fight. Vieira is 28 years old. 10-0 pro record. 4-0 UFC record. Her biggest win was a submission over Sara McMann. She also beat Ashley Evans-Smith and has a split decision win over Cat Zingano. But she struggled in her UFC debut barely beating a 3-1 grappler by split decision. The most concerning thing with Vieira though is how inactive she’s been. She’s only fought once in the past 2 years. She beat Zingano in March 2018. And the last time she fought before that was the submission win over McMann in September 2017. Based on the question marks, I give Vieira an above average grade on her grappling. And her striking is average paired with below average power. Aldana is 31 years old. 4-3 UFC record. But she’s won the last 4 out of 5 fights. She’s got a loss to Leslie Smith but the other 2 losses were split decisions against title contenders Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian. Aldana has a win over grappler Talita Bernardo. Submitted Bethe Correira. I grade Aldana as having plus striking paired with average power. And average grappling. This fight is going to be won or lost based on if Vieira can get the fight on the ground. And whether or not she can keep it there. I think Vieira gets a couple of take downs here and there but I see Aldana being able to get up, and keep most of this fight on the feet where she should have a big advantage, I’m picking Aldana to win by decision.
-Ian Heinisch: This is a tricky fight because of how similar these 2 fighters are. And Omari Akhmedov might not be the biggest name, but he’s quietly put together a 7-3-1 UFC record. 32 years old. He’s gone 4-0-1 in his last 5 fights and is now moving up to 185 lbs as he’s getting older and doesn’t want to cut as much weight. He got caught in a Gunnar Nelson guillotine back in 2014. Not much shame there. He’s been knocked out by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. No shame. And also knocked out by Sergio Moraes. Hmmm. Akhmedov has a split decision win over striker Adbul Razak Alhassan and beat Zak Cummings. The 1 draw came against Marvin Vettori. I grade Akhmedov as having above average wrestling paired with an average submission game. And he also has average striking. Heinisch is 31 years old. 3-1 in the UFC so far. He just lost against an uncharistically patient Derek Brunson. But his wins have been big wins over Cezar Fereira and Antonio Carlos Jr. Heinisch also knocked out a well rounded 10-2 fighter and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Interesting with Heinisch is that his pro record is 13-2. 4 of his 13 wins have come by knockout. 3 of Heinisch’s last 5 wins have come by knockout. So all that means is that he’s starting to figure out how to unlock his power. Heinisch has near plus wrestling. And I now grade his striking as above average. Both these guys are super alike. The wrestling will cancel itself out. Fight will be on the feet. But I think the big difference is that Heinisch will be bigger. Will have more power at 185 lbs than what Akhmedov was used to at 170 lbs. And he’s been knocked out by Moraes. I think Heinisch’s striking is slightly better but the fight will be won based on the power advantage and I’m calling Heinisch by knockout in the 2nd round.
-Ben Saunders: Matt Brown is now 38 years old. He’s only won 2 out of his last 5 fights. Submitted Tim Means and knocked out Diego Sanchez. 1 of the 3 losses was him getting knocked out by Jake Ellenberger. This is the first fight Brown has had in over 2 years. Saunders is 36 years old. He’s won only 1 of his last 6 fights. A knockout over Ellenberger. Looking at Ellenberger, he’s lost 9 out of his last 11 fights. The only 2 wins, he submitted Josh Koscheck (who was at the end of his career) and knocked out Matt Brown. 2 years later, Saunders knocked out Ellenberger. I think Saunders has more left in the tank and has been more active. Both chins are suspect, but I’m picking Saunders by 1st round knockout.
-Daniel Teymur: You know a fighter has a ton of upside when they’re brought into the UFC at 19 years old. Chase Hooper is now 20 years old. 6-0-1 pro record. Beat a 4-0 grappler by decision in his UFC debut. The other biggest win in his career was submitting a 3-0 fighter. But his last fight out against a 7-8 journeyman striker, Hooper fought to a draw. So I’m a bit concerned Hooper is being rushed. Obviously Hooper has a very high ceiling, but for now, compared to the talent that’s in the UFC, his grappling is only average at the moment. Daniel Teymur is 31 years old. 7-3 pro record. 1-3 UFC record. All 3 losses have been against quality guys. Danny Henry. Julio Arce. Chris Fishgold. But Teymur got his first UFC win upsetting a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Outside the UFC, Teymur submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter and knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Teymur has average striking and average grappling. In this fight, Teymur is going to have a really big experience advantage, not just in that this is his 5th UFC fight, but that he’s fought against upper tier talent. I see Teymur being able to keep the fight on the feet where Teymur will out strike Hooper to win by decision.
-Brandon Moreno: This fight is going to be closer than the experts think. So much so, I’m picking Moreno to win in an upset. Moreno is 25 years old. 3-2-1 UFC record. He couldn’t take Sergio Pettis or Alex Pantoja down and got out struck by them. He also fought elite wrestling prospect Askar Askarov to a draw. He’s submitted Louis Smolka and his most impressive win was submitting Dustin Ortiz. Moreno has plus grappling and his striking has improved to average. Kai Kara-France is on a roll right now. 20-7 pro record, but 3-0 in the UFC so far. Decision wins over Elias Garcia, Raulian Paiva, and Mark de la Rosa. Wins over decent prospects, but not top guys. His losses still remain a concern to me. Getting knocked out by a 12-6 journeyman. Losing to a 2-0 fighter. Getting submitted by a 13-4 grappler. Losing to a 4-2 wrestler. Losing to a 16-8 wrestler. It’s a lot of bad losses. To me, Kara-France’s striking is above average and paired with average power. He also has average wrestling. Kara-France’s wrestling has gotten better, but I don’t think it’s improved enough to stop Moreno from taking him down. If Moreno was able to out grapple someone like Ortiz, I don’t think Kara-France will be a problem. I’ll go Moreno by 2nd round submission.
-Viviane Araujo: I’m tempted to say this is the measuring stick fight to see how good Araujo really is, but then again, she just beat top tier gate keeper Alexis Davis in only her 2nd UFC fight. Araujo is 32 years old. 8-1 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Knocked out Talita Bernardo in her UFC debut, on short notice, at a bigger weight class, 135 lbs. Then beat Davis pretty convincingly. I’ll even make a bonus prediction in that Araujo could be Valentina Shevchenko’s first tough test at 125 lbs. Araujo has plus striking and also has above average grappling. Jessica Eye is 33 years old. 3-1 in the UFC at her new weight class of 125 lbs. Only lost to Shevchenko. She beat Jessica-Rose Clark and got split decision wins over Kalindra Faria and Katlyn Chookagian. Striking is plus, but it’s paired with average power. The striking technique between these two is pretty close, but Araujo has way more power. But I think Araujo’s game plan will be to mix and match, take Eye down, see if she can keep her there. I think the take downs and grappling will be the difference in Araujo winning by decision.
-Oskar Piechota: Piechota is 29 years old. 11-2 pro record. 2-2 in the UFC so far. Only 2 career losses were against quality fighters in Gerald Meerschaert and Rodolfo Vieira. Wins wise, Piechota has a knockout win over a 9-0-2 striker. Submitted a well rounded 12-4 fighter. Knocked out a 12-2 striker. And in the UFC, he beat Jonathan Wilson and knocked out Tim Williams. I grade Piechota as having above average striking and average grappling. Punahele Soriano is 26 years old. 6-0 pro record. Beat a 7-3 striker in his UFC debut. He also has a knockout over a 5-1 striker. Soriano’s striking is average. Piechota has multiple ways to win. He’s probably the better striker. Could maybe knock Soriano out. But Piechota should have a big grappling advantage and predict he uses it to submit Soriano by the 2nd round.