Corey Anderson vs Jan Blachowicz
—Corey Anderson
Cardio guys like Anderson are actually better in 5 round fights than 3 round fights. Anderson is 30 years old. 13-4 UFC record. Got knocked out by Gian Villante early in his 3rd UFC fight. Lost a split decision to Shogun Rua when he was more in his prime. Got knocked out by an in his prime Jimi Manuwa. And Anderson was beating Ovince St. Preux before OSP knocked him out in the 3rd round. But Anderson has beat Jan Blachowicz back in 2015 the first time they fought. Had a big breakthrough in beating Glover Teixeira in 2018. He also just beat Ilir Latifi and knocked out Johnny Walker. Anderson’s bread and butter is his plus wrestling and plus cardio. But after the Walker knockout, I’m now grading his striking as being above average. Jan Blachowicz is 36 years old. Lost a majority decision to Patrick Cummins. That was the low point for him. Blachowicz knocked out Latifi in his UFC debut. Submitted Devin Clark. Beat Jared Cannonier, Jimi Manuwa. Submitted Nikita Krylov. Knocked out Luke Rockhold and is coming off an ugly split decision win over Jacare Souza. So aside from getting knocked out by Thiago Santos, Blachowicz has won 6 of his last 7 fights against a really strong group of quality guys. Blachowicz has plus wrestling paired with an above average submission game. Blachowicz also has above average striking paired with average power. Skill wise, Anderson and Blachowicz are pretty similar, but the key here is Anderson’s cardio. That’s the one difference and the main reason Anderson will win this fight. He’s going to put on a pace Blachowicz can’t keep up with. Plus we can’t forget Anderson will have the confidence of winning the first fight against Blachowicz. Fight with be on the feet. Anderson will score with a high volume of punches. First 1 or 2 rounds could be close but Anderson will really pour it on in the 2nd half of the fight. Anderson by decision.
Diego Sanchez vs Michel Pereira
—Diego Sanchez
Michel Pereira was signed to the UFC because of his flashy, super aggressive style. But the reality is that he’s a journeyman who’s not defensively sound enough to go far in the UFC. 26 years old. Knocked out Danny Roberts in his UFC debut. But in his next fight, he got beat by 34 year old Tristan Connelly, who took the fight on very short notice. And Connelly had a 13-6 record going into that fight. Pereira took him lightly, gassed out in the 1st round and had no answer for the take downs. Pereira has average striking paired with above average power. And he also has average grappling. Sanchez is 38 years old. 21-12 in the UFC. That’s 33 fights in the octagon. Crazy. He’s won the last 2 out of 3 fights, including a knockout over Micky Gall. Sanchez still has above average wrestling and average striking. The reality is that Sanchez can be knocked out in the 1st round. 3 of Sanchez’s last 4 losses have happened that way. So the question is can Perira knock Sanchez out while the fight is on the feet, before getting taken down. I don’t think Pereira is the quality striker of the other 3 guys Sanchez has lost to. I think Sanchez might get caught with a couple shots, but will find a way to get Pereira on the ground and will finish him with ground and pound by the 2nd round.
Montana de la Rosa vs Mara Romero Borella
—Montana de la Rosa
Mara Romero Borella is 33 years old. 12-6 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. Lost to Katlyn Chookagian and got knocked out by Lauren Murphy. Borella’s best win was when she knocked Kalindra Faria down and submitted her. Borella’s striking is average and she also has average wrestling. De la Rosa is 24 years old. 4-2 in the UFC. Lost to Nicco Montano and Andrea Lee. No shame. All 4 of her UFC wins came by submission, but the quality of the wins aren’t as strong. Her best wins were over Rachael Ostovich and Nadia Kassem. De la Rosa has near plus grappling. Question in this fight is can de la Rosa get the take down. I think she will and also think she submits Borella in the 1st round.
Brok Weaver vs Kazula Vargas
—Brok Weaver
Weaver is 28 years old. 13-4 pro record, Beat a 8-1 grappler in his UFC debut. Lost to a 1-0 fighter, got submitted by a well rounded 5-2 fighter and lost to a well rounded 6-3 fighter. Weaver submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. And beat a 9-3 wrestler and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Weaver has above average striking paired with below average power. He’s more of a volume puncher. And he also has average wrestling. Kazula Vargas is 34 years old. 10-3 pro record. Lost to a well rounded 20-2 fighter in his UFC debut. He also got submitted by a 5-4 grappler and lost a split decision to a 4-1 wrestler. Vargas has knocked out a well rounded 10-1 striker and beat a 6-2 striker. Vargas has average striking. Easy fight to pick in that I think Weaver has better striking, but even if that’s not the case, Weaver has the wrestling to take Vargas down if he wants to. Either way, Weaver will win by decision.
Rogerio Bontorin vs Ray Borg
—Rogerio Bontorin
This fight is almost too close to call. Ray Borg is 26 years old. 6-4 in the UFC overall. 5-3 UFC record at 125 lbs. Also important to note is that Borg has had problems making weight. He even missed weight at 135 lbs against Casey Kenney. Borg has lost a split decision to Dustin Ortiz, lost to Justin Scoggins. Demetrius Johnson. And Kenney at 135 lbs. Besides Johnson, the common theme is he’s lost to wrestlers. Borg does have a win over Jussier Formiga back in 2017. That’s his biggest win. He also has a win over Louis Smolka. Borg has above average grappling and average striking. Bontorin is 27 years old. 16-1 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC so far. He’s got a split decision win over Magomed Bibulatov and Raulian Paiva. He also has submission wins over a 15-4 grappler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 13-0 fighter. Bontorin’s grappling is near plus and he also has average striking. If the fight plays out on the feet, it’s going to be really close. The striking is close to equal here. But I’m picking Bontorin because I think he does have better grappling. There’ll be a lot of scrambles, but I see Bontorin winning by split decision.
Yancy Medeiros vs Lando Vannata
—Yancy Medeiros
It’s not that often a fighter gets 8 UFC fights, wins only 2, and gets one more shot. That’s where Lando Vannata is at. 27 years old. 2-4-2 UFC record. Lost to David Teymur. Drakkar Klose. Marc Diakiese. Fought Matt Frevola and Bobby Green to draws. Vannat’s only decent win was when he knocked out John Makdessi. Vannata has average striking and average grappling. Medeiros is 32 years old. 6-6 UFC record. He’s only lost to top guys. Jim Miller back in 2014. Dustin Poirier. Francisco Trinaldo. Donald Cerrone. Gregor Gillespie. Medeiros’ best wins have been over Joe Proctor, Makdessi, and knocking out Erick Silva and Alex Oliveira. Medeiros has above average striking and above average grappling. Medeiros is better everywhere, but his best path to win is on the feet where he’s got more power than Vannata. I’ll take Medeiros by decision.
Tim Means vs Daniel Rodriguez
—Daniel Rodriguez
Means is 35 years old. 40 pro fights. 11-8 UFC record. Lots of mileage. His losses only come against fighters that are gate keepers or better. But he’s lost 4 of his last 7 fights. Means’ best wins have been over John Howard, Dhiego Lima, and Alex Garcia. Means striking has regressed to become average now. And he also has average wrestling. Daniel Rodriguez takes this fight on short notice. 33 years old. 10-1 pro record. Beat a 7-2 striker in his UFC debut. He lost a split decision to a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Rodriguez is pretty well rounded with average wrestling and submissions. He also has average striking. On paper, looking at the tools, this should be a razor close fight because both fighters are very similar. I’m picking Rodriguez based on projection, in that Rodriguez is just starting his career, should be improved and I think Means’ career is starting to wind down. Plus, Rodriguez is a big underdog at +284. I’ll say Rodriguez’s cardio is better and he gets the better of the striking exchanges to win by decision.
John Dodson vs Nathaniel Wood
—Nathaniel Wood
John Dodson just hasn’t been the same at 135 lbs. Maybe he hasn’t had the same confidence since losing to Demetrius Johnson the second time. But either way, Dodson isn’t the same fighter nowadays. 35 years old. Dodson had a 6-2 UFC record at 125 lbs and has a 3-4 UFC record at 135 lbs. But the losses have come against the best of the best. John Lineker. Marlon Moraes. Jimmie Rivera. Petr Yan. And Dodson’s spit decision win over Pedro Munhoz is a quality win. Dodson’s skills have started to regress to where he now has above average striking paired with average power. And his wrestling is now just above average. Wood’s career is going in the opposite direction. 26 years old. 16-3 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC so far. And the crazy thing with Wood is that when he signed with the UFC, he had 13 wins and only 2 of them came by submission. 9 knockouts. So he’s a striker. But his grappling has improved leaps and bounds. In the UFC, Wood has submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez. He’s also submitted a 6-2 striker. And also knocked out a 9-1 grappler, a 7-0 grappler, and a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Wood has plus grappling to go along with above average striking. Skills wise, Wood and Dodson are close to the same. But it’s pretty likely in this fight Wood shows improvement and Dodson shows regression. The best tool in this fight is Wood’s grappling. I think Wood mixing some take downs in with his striking will be enough for him to win by decision.
Jim Miller vs Scott Holtzman
—Scott Holtzman
Jim Miller has bounced back pretty well. 36 years old. 20-12 UFC record. Had lost 4 fights in a row. But now he’s won 3 of his last 4. Only losing to Charles Oliveira. In that span, Miller submitted Alex White and Clay Guida. Currently, Miller has above average wrestling and submissions. Holtzman is also 36 years old. 6-3 UFC record. Holtzman was out struck by Drew Dober, Josh Emmett, and Nik Lentz. Holtzman’s 2 best wins are is last 2 wins, knocking out Alan Patrick and Dong Hyun Ma. He’s got average striking paired with above average power. And Holtzman also has average wrestling. Miller is going to want this fight on the ground but Holtzman will be able to stuff the take downs. Fight will be on the feet. Holtzman’s striking technique is a little better than Miller’s but the difference will be Holtzman’s power. So I’m picking Holtzman by 2nd round knockout.
Devin Clark vs Dequan Townsend
—Devin Clark
Clark is 31 years old. 4-4 UFC record, including a win over Mike Rodriguez. Got knocked out by Alex Nicholson in his UFC debut. Clark has above average wrestling and average striking, however to my eye, Clark might be starting to tap into his power more. Dequan Townsend is 33 years old. 21-10 pro record. Got knocked out by Lungiambula in his UFC debut. Lost to Bevon Lewis even though Lewis was severly hurt during the fight. All of Townsend’s tools are below average, but he’s best at striking. On the feet, this fight could be close. So it makes sense for Clark to clinch Townsend. Take him down. I think he does that and wins by TKO via ground and pound in the 2nd round.
Casey Kenney vs Merab Dvalishvili
—Casey Kenny
Dvalishvili is 29 years old. 9-4 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. Got submitted by Ricky Simon and lost a split decision to Frankie Saenz. But he used his wrestling to beat Terrion Ware and Brad Katona. Dvalishvili is one dimensional but has near plus wrestling. Kenney is 28 years old. 13-1-1 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Kenney lost a split decision to a 12-3 grappler. And he fought a well rounded 8-3 fighter to a draw. Kenney beat Ray Borg on short notice and then beat Manny Bermudez. Kenney’s wrestling is plus. And his striking has improved to where it’s average. Wrestling will cancel itself out here. Fight will play out on the feet. Kenney will have a big advantage on the feet. But because Dvalishvili is pretty durable, Kenney will win by decision.
Macy Chiasson vs Shanna Young
—Shanna Young
Macy Chiasson is an elite prospect. But she only has 6 pro fights and needs to get better at her wrestling. 28 years old. 3-1 UFC record. She’s lost to Felicia Spencer and Lina Lansberg. Because she couldn’t stop the take downs and wasn’t able to get back up. Chiasson has knocked down and submitted Pannie Kianzad and knocked out Sara Moras. Striking is plus. Shanna Young is 28 years old. 7-2 pro record. Got submitted in her UFC debut to a 8-4 wrestler. But, Young has a split decision win over Pam Sorenson, who’s a wrestler who normally fights at 145 lbs-155 lbs. All other wins over cans. Young has average striking and average wrestling. Will Young be able to take Chiasson down like Lansberg did? It’s a coin toss. Originally, I was going to say no. Lansberg just got better in her wrestling. But then I saw Lansberg fight Sara McMann just a few weeks ago where McMann dominated the wrestling. So maybe Lansberg’s wrestling is just at an average level. And if that’s the case, has Chiasson improved her wrestling that much in the past few months, enough to stop Young’s take downs? Well, with Chiasson as high as -1000 in some sports books and Young at +600, I have to pick Young. I see her being able to push Chiasson against the fence, take her down, and Chiasson not being able to get back up. Young by decision.
Raulian Paiva vs Mark de la Rosa
—Raulian Paiva
Mark de la Rosa is 25 years old. 2-3 UFC record. The guys that he’s lost to are pretty good. Tim Elliott. Alex Perez. Kai-Kara France. He’s got a split decision win over a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 7-0-1 striker. De la Rosa has grappling that’s a little above average. Paiva is 24 years old. 18-3 pro record. 1-2 in the UFC so far. Lost a split decision to France. And got TKO’d from Rogerio Bontorin due to a bad cut. Paiva has a split decision win over a 17-4 grappler, a split decision win over a well rounded 9-2 fighter, and beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Paiva has above average wrestling and average striking. De la Rosa would like to get it on the ground, but Paiva’s wrestling will prevent him from getting the take downs. This is going to be a stand up fight. Paiva’s striking is better and he’ll win by decision.
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