Tyron Woodley vs Gilbert Burns
Gilbert Burns
Age: 33
UFC Record: 11-3 overall. 4-0 at 170 lbs.
Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Alex Oliveira and Mike Davis. Beat Alexey Kunchenko and Gunnar Nelson.
Tools: Burns has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
Tyron Woodley
Age: 38
UFC Record: 9-3-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler. Knocked down Darren Till and submitted him. Beat Kelvin Gastelum by split decision. Beat Stephen Thompson by majority decision. Beat Demian Maia.
Tools: Woodley has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
On paper, it would appear that Woodley should be slightly favored to win. And the books as of now reflect that with Woodley has a -165 favorite. It’s possible that Woodley could take Burns down and maybe hold him down. And Woodley is a very strong defensive striker as he showed in barely topping Stephen Thompson. But progression and regression are very real. Woodley just turned 38 years old. He hasn’t fought in over a year. And the last time he fought was when he got blown out by Usman. History has shown that champions are almost never at the same level after they’re no longer champion. I think it’s very likely Woodley’s tools slip a bit in this fight. On the other side of the coin, Burns appears to be a much better version at 170 lbs. And what’s interesting about him knocking out Maia is that Maia has only been knocked out one other time in 38 career MMA fights. Got knocked out by Nate Marquardt back in 2009. I think Burns has a little bit of development left and I’m picking Burns because I think he’s going to have better striking than Woodley. My only concern with Burns is not knowing how his cardio will hold up in the fight. It’s his first 5 rounder. But I see this fight as a coin flip. Then add on the fact that Burns is a +150 underdog. I’m sold.
Chris’ Pick: I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Gilbert Burns by 2nd round knockout
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Blagoi Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai
Augusto Sakai
Age: 28
Pro Record: 14-1
UFC record: 4-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura, Chase Sherman, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Barely beat Andrei Arlovski by split decision.
Tools: Sakai has above average striking (60).
Blagoi Ivanov
Age: 33
Pro Record: 18-3
UFC Record: 2-2 UFC
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Derrick Lewis
Key Wins: Beat Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa
Tools: Ivanov has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). Also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
I’m very confident in Ivanov winning here. He went toe to toe with Lewis. Chin held up. And the fight was as close to a draw as you’re going to get. Could Sakai’s striking take a step forward? Sure. Will his striking tool be on par with Lewis’? I doubt it. Therefore, I think Ivanov can out strike Sakai. But I can see Ivanov also mixing his wrestling in. Especially clinching with Sakai against the fence. Even if Ivanov can’t take Sakai down, I expect him to score in the clinch.
Chris’ Pick: Because of both of these paths to win, I’m picking Ivanov by decision.
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Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle
Billy Quarantillo
Age: 31
Pro Record: 13-2
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
Tools: Quarantillo has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55). He also has plus cardio (70).
Spike Carlyle
Age: 27
Pro Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to a 8-11 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out Aalon Cruz. Beat an 11-3 grappler.
Tools: Carlyle has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
Coin flip of a fight. Tool wise, both are pretty similar, but both have a different approach. Carlyle is more aggressive in the first round, whereas Quarantillo likes to set a high pace early and win in the 2nd half of the fight when his opponent tires. I think Quarantillo is durable enough to withstand the Carlyle blitz. After Carlyle tires,
Chris’ Pick: Quarantillo’s cardio and pace will take over the fight and I expect him to pick up the decision win.
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Brok Weaver vs Roosevelt Roberts
Brok Weaver
Age: 28
Pro Record: 15-4
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Lost to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a 8-1 grappler, a 9-3 wrestler and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
Tools: Weaver has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 26
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Losses: Lost to Vinc Pichel
Key Wins: Beat Thomas Gifford. Submitted a 13-3 wrestler.
Tools: Roosevelt has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average grappling (60).
Roberts has a strong record in the UFC so far, but the quality of competition he’s beat has been pretty light. So it’s hard to be completely certain on how good his tools are. Weaver is more of a known commodity in that he’s beat a lot of quality opponents. This is more of a projection pick in that I’m still trying to get a handle on Roberts. I think Weaver could take Roberts down if he really wanted to, but I doubt he will with Roberts having a big grappling advantage. I’m almost certain it’s a stand up fight.
Chris’ Pick: Weaver should have better striking and better cardio. I think that’s the difference in him winning via decision.
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MacKenzie Dern vs Hannah Cifers
MacKenzie Dern
Age: 27
Pro Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Losses: Lost to Amanda Ribas
Key Wins: Beat Ashley Yoder by split decision. Submitted Amanda Cooper.
Tools: Dern has average striking (50) and plus grappling (70).
Hannah Cifers
Age: 27
Pro Record: 10-4
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Knocked out by Angela Hill.
Key Wins: Beat Polyana Viana by split decision. Beat Jodie Esquibel. Cifers also has knocked out a 5-1 grappler.
Tools: Cifers has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
I thought Cifers was winning the striking exchanges with Hill, until Hill took her down and ended the fight. Same thing happened in Cifers’ other loss to Maycee Barber. And between Dern, Barber, and Hill, Dern probably has the best ground skills.
Chris’ Pick: Maybe Cifers has improved her wrestling, but it won’t be enough to stop the take downs. Dern by 1st round submission.
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Katlyn Chookagian vs Antonina Shevchenko
Katlyn Chookagian
Age: 31
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
Key Wins: Split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana. Beat Joanne Calderwood and Jennifer Maia.
Tools: Chookagian has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little bit above average (55).
Antonina Shevchenko
Age: 35
Pro Record: 8-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Submitted Lucie Pudilova. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
Tools: Shevchenko has near plus striking paired with average power (65-50). She also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Chookagian has long range, is fast, and hard to hit. She also has a monster experience advantage over the older Shevchenko sister in that Chookagian has fought a who’s who of the division already. Shevchenko has looked great but has only fought 2 quality opponents thus far in her MMA career. And she struggled a little bit in the Pudielova win as Pudielova knocked Shevchenko down and was doing well in the striking. Chookagian is unique and her pace is hard to prepare for.
Chris’ Pick: I don’t think Shevchenko is going to bring anything new to the table that Chookagian hasn’t seen before. I see Chookagian cruising to a decision win.
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Daniel Rodriguez vs Gabriel Green
Daniel Rodriguez
Age: 33
Pro Record: 11-1
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a 7-2 striker.
Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Gabriel Green
Age: 27
Pro Record: 9-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
Tools: Green has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
Kevin Holland got hurt and Green steps in on less than a week’s notice. But Green isn’t the typical short notice journeyman type fighter. He’s a legit prospect and someone the UFC was probably close to signing anyway. The interesting thing about Green is that out of his 9 wins, 3 are knockouts and 6 are submissions. But 2 of his last 5 wins came by knockout. And 2 of the best 3 opponents he’s beat, he knocked them out. So his hands are improving. But Rodriguez seems like a legit prospect too. Tim Means is a successful gate keeper in the UFC. And Rodriguez got the better of the striking between them before submitting Means. I can’t imagine Green would get the better of the striking exchanges on 6 days notice. And Rodriguez should have the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: I think Green looks okay in the first round and then fades after that. Rodriguez by decision.
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Jamahal Hill vs Klidson Abreu
Jamahal Hill
Age: 28
Pro Record: 7-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Beat Darko Stosic. Knocked out a 9-2 striker.
Tools: Hill has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
Klidson Abreu
Age: 27
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Shamil Gamzatov.
Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Walker in 2015. Also submitted a 20-5 striker, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
Tools: Abreu has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
Interesting fight as Hill has been developing at a pretty rapid pace. But currently in the moment, Abreu’s grappling should be good enough to take Hill down. On the feet, it’s possible the fight could be close.
Chris’ Pick: Hill’s striking could be better than average, but Abreu is going to put Hill in a place he’s not used to being, which is on his back. I see Abreu submitting Hill by the 2nd round.
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Tim Elliott vs Brandon Royval
Tim Elliott
Age: 33
UFC Record: 4-8
Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Louis Smolka.
Tools: Elliott has above average wrestling (60) and average submissions (50).
Brandon Royval
Age: 27
Pro Record: 10-4
Key Wins: Submitted Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
Tools: Royval has average striking (50). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55). .
Royval has a little bit of buzz attached to his name right now, but he currently lacks wrestling. I watched his 2018 LFA fight with Casey Kenney and Royval had no answer for the wrestling. Now, Elliott isn’t on the same level as Kenney with that tool, but he’s close. And Elliott will also have a big experience advantage. If Royval is able to somehow stuff the take downs, then yeah, he’s got a decent shot.
Chris’ Pick: Elliott’s calling card is being unorthodox and difficult to prepare for. He’s going to find a way to get Royval to the ground and will take him down enough to win by decision.
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Louis Smolka vs Casey Kenney
Louis Smolka
Age: 28
UFC Record: 7-6, 1-0 at 135 lbs.
Key Wins: Submitted Paddy Holohan and Mudaerji Su. Knocked out Ben Nguyen.
Tools: Smolka has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
Casey Kenney
Age: 29
Pro Record: 13-2-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Draws: He fought a well rounded 8-3 fighter to a draw.
Key Wins: Beat Ray Borg on short notice. Beat Manny Bermudez.
Tools: Kenney has average striking (50) and plus wrestling (70).
Smolka is really well rounded but doesn’t have any elite tools, although, he might develop better at 135 lbs without having to cut the extra weight. On the feet, Smolka would have the better striking and Kenney would be in trouble.
Chris’ Pick: I’m pretty confident Kenney will be able to go to his bread and butter which is his wrestling. Take Smolka down. Control him and do enough on the ground to grind out the decision win.
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Chris Gutierrez vs Vincle Morales
Chris Gutierrez
Age: 28
Pro Record: 14-4-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Split decision win over Geraldo de Freitas. Knocked out a 9-3 grappler. Submitted a 13-4 grappler. Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter. Split decision wins over a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 10-0 wrestler, and a 10-3 striker.
Tools: Gutierrez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Vince Morales
Age: 29
UFC Record: 1-3
Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat a 7-1 striker.
Tools: Morales has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
Morales might have an ghastly 1-3 UFC record, but one of the losses was to Yadong Song, where Morales didn’t get blown out. Then the loss to Benito Lopez, I thought Morales won that fight and he took it on 2 weeks notice. He’s better than his record. Gutierrez is defense first type striker and that leads him to squeaking out so many split decision wins. The difference in this fight is going to be Morales’ power. The technique will be close. Number of strikes landed will be close.
Chris’ Pick: Morales will land more damage and that’ll lead to him winning a close decision.