Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez
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Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
UFC Record: 7-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Marco Beltran and John Moraga. Submitted Tim Elliott. Beat Alex Pantoja.
Tools: Figueiredo has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
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Joseph Benavidez
Age: 35
UFC Record: 13-4 at 125 lbs.
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sergio Pettis.
Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Perez and Formiga, not once, but twice. Has submitted Elliott. Has beat Dustin Ortiz (twice), John Moraga. Split decision win over Henry Cejudo.
Tools: Benavidez has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
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I know. Vast majority of the time, whoever loses the first fight, loses the rematch. But the vast majority of the time, the exceptions are fighters who lost from early knockouts. I thought Benavidez won the 1st round of the Figueiredo fight. Then the headbutt happened, Benavidez was dazed, and got knocked out. I think it was a fluke win. Benavidez wasn’t able to take Figueiredo down in the 1st, but I question Figueiredo’s cardio. He’s never gone 5 rounds. Figueiredo’s wrestling has improved a ton, but I don’t see him being able to stuff takedowns going into the 2nd half of the fight. So let’s add it all up here. Benavidez might be the better striker. We’ll see. Benavidez will probably get takedowns as the fight goes on. Benavidez is almost a 2 to 1 underdog. From a betting standpoint, this is an easy pick.
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Chris’ Pick: Benavidez by decision.
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Kelvin Gastelum vs Jack Hermansson
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Kelvin Gastelum
Age: 28
UFC Record: 4-3 at 185 lbs.
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
Tools: Gastelum has plus striking (70). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Jack Hermansson
Age: 32
UFC Record: 7-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted David Branch and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Jacare Souza.
Tools: Hermansson has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
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Gastelum is easily one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC. One fight he looks spectacular like the Israel Adesanya fight. The next, he’s fighting not to lose like in his Till fight and Jacare fight. But regardless of which Gastelum shows up, I think Hermansson goes back to his bread and butter here, which is his wrestling. I don’t think Gastelum’s wrestling has improved much since he got taken down and submitted by Chris Weidman. I see Hermnasson pretty much doing the same thing.
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Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by 2nd round submission.
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Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Fiziev
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Marc Diakiese
Age: 27
UFC Record: 5-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
Key Wins: Beat Joseph Duffy and Lando Vannata.
Tools: Diakiese has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has average wrestling (50).
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Rafael Fiziev
Age: 27
Pro Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 1-1
Tools: Fiziev has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
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Fiziev is hard to grade because he only fought tomato cans before signing with the UFC. Since then, he got knocked out quick by Magomed Mustafaev. No shame. But dominated Alex White. So his striking has to be a 60 grade, but it could be better. He definitely has more power than Diakiese and that’s going to make the difference.
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Chris’ Pick: Fiziev wins a close decision.
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Luana Carolina vs Ariane Lipski
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Luana Carolina
Age: 26
Pro Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker and a 7-0 wrestler.
Tools: Carolina has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
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Ariane Lipski
Age: 26
Pro Record: 12-5
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Losses: Lost to Molly McCann.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 12-4 grappler.
Tools: Lipski has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average grappling (50).
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This fight is another test to see exactly where Lipski’s striking tool is at. She came to the UFC with a lot of hype. Lost a competitive fight to title contender Joanne Calderwood. But I felt she took a step back getting out struck by McCann. Although it is possible McCann improved a lot and that’s why Lipski fought the way she did. Lipski is 26, she still has room to grow, but it’s possible she is who she is. I have more confidence in Carolina at this point. I feel like Carolina is a better striker than McCann.
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Chris’ Pick: Carolina wins by decision.
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Alexandre Pantoja vs Askar Askarov
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Alexandre Pantoja
Age: 30
UFC Record: 6-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno.
Tools: Pantoja has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
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Askar Askarov
Age: 27
Pro Record: 11-0-1
UFC Record: 1-0-1
Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a draw.
Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler, a well rounded 19-6 fighter, a well rounded 37-5 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out a 9-2 grappler. Beat Tim Elliott.
Tools: Askarov has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
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Has Pantoja improved since his loss to Dustin Ortiz? That’s what we’re going to find out. With Askarov, I hesitate a little to give him a plus grade on his wrestling, but he took Moreno down repeatedly, and dominated Elliott in the wrestling. And that’s going to give Pantoja problems. I just haven’t seen enough progress from Pantoja in the last 2 years since that Ortiz loss that makes me think he can stuff the takedowns.
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Chris’ Pick: I like Asakrov to win by decision.
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Khadis Ibragimov vs Roman Dolidze
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Khadis Ibragimov
Age: 25
Pro Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Losses: Lost to Ed Herman
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 15-3 fighter and a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Tools: Ibragimov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Roman Dolidze
Age: 32
Pro Record: 6-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 15-4 fighter and a 13-3 wrestler.
Tools: Dolidze has above average striking (60) and average grappling (50).
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Ibragimov might have an 0-2 UFC record that doesn’t look that good, but look at the two fights. He should have beat Da Un Jung, but gassed out when he went for an early knockout. And then he lost to Herman who’s very durable and hard to take down. With Dolidze, I think Ibragimov would be able to take him down if he needs to. On the feet, it’s a toss up. But Ibragimov having the UFC experience and wrestling in his back pocket will make the difference.
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Chris’ Pick: Ibragimov picks up the decision win.
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Grant Dawson vs Nad Narimani
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Grant Dawson
Age: 26
Pro Record: 15-1
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Submitted Michael Trizano.
Tools: Dawson has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
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Nad Narimani
Age: 33
Pro Record: 12-3
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 wrestler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat Khalid Taha and a well rounded 13-1 fighter.
Tools: Narimani has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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I really don’t see how this fight is much different than Narimani vs Mike Grundy. Grundy and Dawson are both pretty similar, except I actually grade Dawson as having better wrestling.
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Chris’ Pick: Dawson gets the ground and pound TKO win in the 2nd round.
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Joe Duffy vs Joel Alvarez
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Joe Duffy
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-3
Key Losses: Knocked out by James Vick. Lost to Marc Diakiese.
Key Wins: Submitted Mitch Clarke.
Tools: Duffy has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
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Joel Alvarez
Age: 27
Pro Record: 16-2
UFC Record: 1-1
Key WIns: Submitted a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out a 12-4 striker.
Tools: Alvarez has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
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At this point, I’d classify Alvarez as a submission specialist. He’s got one way to win and that’s taking Duffy down. Fortunately for him, I think he has the skills to do it.
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Chris’ Pick: Alvarez submits Duffy in the 2nd round.
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Montel Jackson vs Brett Johns
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Montel Jackson
Age: 28
UFC Record: 4-1
Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Beat Felipe Corales.
Tools: Jackson has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60).
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Brett Johns
Age: 28
UFC Record: 4-2
Key Wins: Submitted Joe Soto and Tony Gravely.
Tools: Johns has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus wrestling (65)
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This is going to be a decent test for Jackson. His only loss in the UFC was to Ricky Simon when Simon out wrestled him. And that’s Johns’ only chance of winning in this fight. Jackson would wipe Johns out in the striking. I think Johns might get Jackson down a couple times, but Jackson will get back up. Either way, Jackson will be on the feet long enough to clip Johns eventually.
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Chris’ Pick: Jackson gets the knockout in the 2nd round.
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Amir Albazi vs Malcolm Gordon
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Amir Albazi
Age: 26
Pro Record: 12-1
Key Wins: Submitted a 6-2 wrestler and a 6-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
Tools: Albazi has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Malcolm Gordon
Age: 30
Pro Record: 12-3
Key Losses: Knocked out by an 11-8 striker.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and an 8-1 striker. Beat a 6-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
Tools: Gordon has fringe average striking (45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
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Watching Albazi fight Jose Torres really helped me feel confident in picking him. Torres is a former UFC fighter who went 1-1 but was cut because at that point the UFC would be getting rid of it’s 125 lb. division. Torres will be back. In any case, Torres is really good. He knocked out Jarred Brooks and did okay against contender Alex Perez until getting knocked out. Albazi fought Torres and Torres barely won the decision. I think the wrestling in this fight cancels itself out. It’ll be on the feet. And I just have question marks about Gordon’s striking. Gordon got knocked out by a 11-8 journeyman. And in his last fight where he submitted an 8-1 striker, Gordon got dropped when they were striking. So, I’m confident Albazi has the better striking.
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Chris’ Pick: Albazi via decision.
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Arman Tsarukyan vs Davi Ramos
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Arman Tsarukyan
Age: 23
Pro Record: 14-2
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out a 15-5 striker. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
Tools: Tsarukyan has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
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Davi Ramos
Age: 33
UFC Record: 4-1 at 155 lbs.
Key Wins: Submitted Chris Greutzemacher and Nick Hein. Beat Austin Hubbard.
Tools: Ramos has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
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I really like this fight. And it’s interesting that Ramos is coming off a loss to Islam Makhachev. Because Tsarukyan fought Makhachev too. On short notice. In his UFC debut. And I think Tsarukyan did better than Ramos. I think Tsarukyan stuffs the takedowns. They trade strikes. Tsarukyan is going to get the best of it.
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Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by decision.
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Serghei Spivac vs Carlos Felipe
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Serghei Spivac
Age: 25
Pro Record: 10-2
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
Key Wins: Submitted Tai Tuivasa and a 5-1 striker.
Tools: Spivac has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
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Carlos Felipe
Age: 25
Pro Record: 8-0
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-0 striker.
Tools: Felipe has average striking (50).
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This match up reminds me of Spivac vs Tuivasa. Felipe seems to have average striking. Not sure about his ground game because there’s not much footage or buzz on him. But it’s possible Spivac could have better striking. And then there’s the likely path to win with the ground game.
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Chris’ Pick: I’ll go with Spivac by 2nd round submission.