Whittaker vs Till, Shogun vs Nogueira III, Gustafsson vs Werdum Fight Picks

Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till
Robert Whittaker
Age: 29
UFC Record: 9-1 at 185 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice) and Uriah Hall.
Tools: Whittaker has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
Darren Till
Age: 27
UFC Record: 6-2-1 overall. 1-0 at 185 lbs.
Key Draw: Fought Nicolas Dalby to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone. Beat Stephen Thompson. Split decision over Kelvin Gastelum. 
Tools: Till has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).  
I think it’s easy to forget how good Whittaker is. He’s had only 1 fight in the last 2 years and that’s getting knocked out by Israel Adesanya. But before that, he won 9 in a row that includes 2 wins over Romero. And Till is still a big mystery to me. He’s a very patient, defensive fighter. And I think his power is overrated. Only 2 of his 6 UFC wins are by knockout. The problem for Till in this fight is that he’s not going to take Whittaker to the ground. He’s a kick boxer. They’re going to trade strikes. And Whittaker has way more power. And with this being a 5 round fight, Whittaker is going to eventually land the power shot.
Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by 2nd round knockout.
Shogun Rua vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Shogun Rua
Age: 37
UFC Record: 10-9-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by Ovince St. Preux. Submitted by Chael Sonnen.
Key Wins: Knocked out Tyson Pedro. Split decision over Corey Anderson in 2016.
Tools: Shogun has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Age: 44
UFC Record: 6-6
Key Wins: Knocked out Sam Alvey and Patrick Cummins.
Tools: Nogueira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
I don’t really know how this fight could go any differently than their first 2 fights. Shogun won’t let the fight go to the ground. They’ll strike. Shogun is just better there. He’s got the confidence of winning the first 2 fights. And Nogueira is coming off a brutal 1st round knockout loss.
Chris’ Pick: Shogun gets the knockout in the 2nd round.
Alexander Gustafsson vs Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Gustafsson 
Age: 33
UFC Record: 10-6
Key Wins: Knocked out Glover Teixeira and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Jan Blachowicz.
Tools: Gustafsson has near plus plus striking (75). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
Fabricio Werdum
Age: 42
UFC Record: 11-6
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexei Oleinik.
Key Wins: Knocked out by Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, Cain Velasquez, and Walt Harris. Submitted Fedor Emelianenko, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. 
Tools: Werdum has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
So many unknowns in this fight! How is Gustafsson’s tools going to translate at heavyweight? But Werdum has way more unknowns. Like after watching his fight with Oleinik, I ask myself, did Oleinik’s striking get better or did Werdum’s striking regress? Cause the striking was pretty close to equal. I’m erring more on the side of regression because Werdum was nowhere close to being able to out grapple Oleinik. Werdum hadn’t fought in 3 years and just didn’t look like the same guy. I’m pretty sure Gustafsson has the better boxing. He’d win in the stand up. But can Gustafsson keep the fight standing up? That’s harder because Werdum is bigger and possibly stronger. Light heavyweights moving up to heavyweight haven’t done well lately. But Werdum is 42 years old. I’m going to cautiously pick Gustafsson. He hasn’t fought in awhile. His body should be healthy. I think he’ll scramble and get back up if taken down. 
Chris’ Pick: Gustafsson out strikes Werdum to win by decision.
Carla Esparza vs Marina Rodriguez
Carla Esparza
Age: 32
UFC Record: 7-4
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randa Markos.
Key Wins: Submitted Rose Namajunas back in 2014. Submitted Angela Hill. Beat Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Tecia Torres by majority decision. Beat Alexa Grasso by majority decision (I thought Grasso won that fight). 
Tools: Esparza has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has plus wrestling (70) and average grappling (50). 
Marina Rodriguez
Age: 33
UFC Record: 3-0-2
Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
Key Wins: Beat Tecia Torres.
Tools: Rodriguez has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
This is a horrible style matchup for Esparza. Rodriguez has enough wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. And Rodriguez’s striking is noticeably better. 
Chris’ Pick: I’m confident in picking Rodriguez by decision.
Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Paul Craig
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-4-1
Key Draws: Fought Shogun Rua to a split draw. 
Key Wins: Submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu. 
Tools: Craig has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65)
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 
Age: 33
Pro Record: 20-6
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Wins: Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
Tools: Antigulov has above average grappling (60).
I’m not buying into Antigulov’s grappling as a plus tool because he fought Ion Cutelaba and couldn’t take him down. And I’m sure that Cutelaba’s wrestling is a 60 grade. All 4 of Antigulov’s UFC fights have ended in the first round and I think that trend continues. Craig showed way improved striking in the Shogun fight and I see him having a monster advantage on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Craig by 1st round knockout.
Alex Oliveira vs Peter Sobotta
Alex Oliveira
Age: 32
UFC Record: 10-6
Key Losses: Knocked out by Yancy Medeiros. 
Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. 
Tools: Oliveira has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Peter Sobotta
Age: 33
UFC Record: 4-2 in his 2nd UFC stint.
Key Losses: Knocked out by Kyle Noke in 2015.
Key Wins: Beat Nicolas Dalby.
Tools: Sobotta has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Really close fight. Both fighters have pretty similar skillsets. Both well rounded. But Oliveira has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. And the only win was a really close split decision win over Max Griffin. Sobotta hasn’t fought in over 2 years, but that could be to his advantage of completely healing his body and getting ready for another run. I see Sobotta as having the better striking and that making the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Sobotta by decision.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Rhys McKee
Khamzat Chimaev
Age: 26
Pro Record: 7-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler.
Tools: Chimaev has near plus striking (65). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
Rhys McKee
Age: 24
Pro Record: 10-2-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert in 2016, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 5-0 striker.
Tools: McKee has striking that’s a little above average (55).
This fight was booked to spotlight Chimaev. And the odds reflect that with Chimaev as high as -1300. Which is crazy. It’s only been a few days since Chimaev’s UFC debut and comparisons of Chimaev to Khabib are already being thrown around. So Chimaev is that heavy a favorite not just because of the hype but also because McKee doesn’t have much wrestling. There’s a good chance this fight plays out similar to what happened between Chimaev and John Phillips. I see a quick takedown and ground and pound until the fight’s over.
Chris’ Pick: Chimaev by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
Francisco Trinaldo vs Jai Herbert
Francisco Trinaldo
Age: 41
UFC Record: 15-6
Key Losses: Lost to James Vick. 
Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Laprise, Paul Felder, and Evan Dunham. Beat John Makdessi.
Tools: Trinaldo has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60)
Jai Herbert 
Age: 32
Pro Record: 10-1
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 11-3 wrestler. 
Tools: Herbert has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Most of the time, when the UFC has a fighter make their UFC debut on the main card or a featured prelim, it’s because they like the fighter and want to push them. And the UFC usually makes it a winnable matchup. That’s the case here with Herbert. And by them matching Herbert up with a wrestler like Trinaldo makes me think they believe Herbert has legit wrestling. So that makes me buy in too. Assuming the fight stays on the feet, it’s easy to see Herbert getting the best of that. And then top it off with Herbert coming in as a +150 underdog. That’s the clincher.
Chris’ Pick: Herbert by decision because Trinaldo is so durable.
Nicolas Dalby vs Jesse Ronson
Nicholas Dalby 
Age: 35
UFC Record: 2-2-1
Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a draw.
Key Wins: Beat Alex Oliveira. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleksi dos Santos. 
Tools: Dalby has near plus wrestling (65).
Jesse Ronson
Age: 34
Pro Record: 21-10
UFC Record: 0-3 at 155 lbs.
Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Split decision win over a 6-2 grappler.
Tools: Ronson has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Pretty unfair matchup for Ronson. He went 0-3 in his first UFC stint and lost to wrestlers Kevin Lee, Francisco Trinaldo, and Michel Prazares. Now he gets another wrestler in Dalby. Dalby is a big welterweight and I can’t see Ronson being able to stuff the takedowns.
Chris’ Pick: Dalby via decision.
Tom Aspinall vs Jake Collier
Tom Aspinall 
Age: 26
Pro Record: 7-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler. 
Tools: Aspinall has average striking (50).
Jake Collier 
Age: 31
UFC Record: 3-3
Key Losses: Knocked out by Vitor Miranda and Dongi Yang.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat a 9-2 grappler.
Tools: Collier has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
There’s a ton of value in picking Collier as a 2 to 1 underdog. Collier has had an interesting UFC career so far. His first 4 fights were at 185 lbs. Went 2-2. Got knocked out twice. Moved up to 205 lbs. Went 1-1. But the loss was to Devin Clark and there’s no shame there. Collier hasn’t fought in almost 3 years. And again moves up, this time to heavyweight. So who knows how he’s going to look. Aspinall is the more known commodity, but he has only 1 win over a quality opponent. I’ve seen no evidence of a ground game. Meanwhile, Collier does have 3 UFC wins. He’s got experience. His striking might be better at a healthier weight class for him. And if his striking isn’t better, he can probably clinch with Aspinall against the fence or take him down. So many reasons he probably wins here. 
Chris’ Pick: Collier by 2nd round knockout.
Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy
Movsar Evloev
Age: 26
Pro Record: 12-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter and a 15-5 wrestler. Submitted an 11-3 striker. Beat Enrique Barzola, a 7-1 striker, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 14-2 wrestler.
Tools: Evloev has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).  
Mike Grundy
Age: 33
Pro Record: 12-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 wrestler and a 12-1 grappler. Beat a 12-2 wrestler and a 16-4 grappler.
Tools: Grundy has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
It’s possible that maybe Grundy had the UFC jitters in his debut against Nad Narimani, but I think more than likely, his striking is currently at an average grade. And assuming that’s the case, he won’t have much chance to beat Evloev. Wrestling should cancel itself out. Stand up fight.
Chris’ Pick: Evloev cruises to a decision win.
Tanner Boser vs Raphael Pessoa
Tanner Boser
Age: 28
Pro Record: 18-6
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Losses: Lost to a 5-1 wrestler, a well rounded 4-4-1 fighter, and a 17-7 striker. 
Key Wins: Knocked out Philipe Lins and an 11-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter. 
Tools: Boser has above average striking paired with average power (60-50).
Raphael Pessoa
Age: 31
Pro Record: 10-1
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Wins: Beat a 10-2 wrestler. 
Tools: Pessoa has striking that’s a little bit above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
So my knee jerk reaction to picking this fight is to go with Boser. Despite the mediocre pro record, Boser has really improved his striking in his last couple fights. He even held his own with Ciryl Gane and went all 3 rounds with him. But the thing we don’t really know about Boser yet is where his wrestling and ground game is. So Pessoa does have a legit path to win if he can take Boser down. But then again, Pessoa fought Gane too and Gane, who’s known for his striking, was able to take Pessoa down and submit him, so it’s not like Pessoa’s grappling tool is super elite. I do think Boser has the wrestling to stuff the takedowns and on the feet, he’s going to be better.
Chris’ Pick: Boser by decision.
Bethe Correira vs Pannie Kianzad
Bethe Correia
Age: 37
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Key Draw: Fought Marion Reneau to a draw.
Key Wins: Beat Sijara Eubanks. Split decision over Jessica Eye.
Tools: Correia has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Pannie Kianzad
Age: 28
Pro Record: 12-5
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
Key Wins: Beat Jessica-Rose Clark, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 7-2 striker.
Tools: Kianzad has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has average wrestling (50).
Correia really surprised me in her last fight. I thought her career was done. She had won only 1 fight in her last 6. And she was fighting Eubanks who’s been on the upward trend. But Correia out struck Eubanks and kept the fight standing up. She takes on Kianzad who also got her career back on track, beating Clark and avoiding the dreaded 0-3 UFC record that usually gets fighters released. I feel pretty comfortable in picking Correia because not only do I think her stand up is a little better, but she also has a 2nd legit path to win with her under rated wrestling. 
Chris’ Pick: Correia wins the striking exchanges and mixes in a couple takedowns to win via decision. 
Ramazan Emeev vs Niklas Stolze
Ramazan Emeev
Age: 33
Pro Record: 18-4
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Beat Sam Alvey.
Tools: Emeev has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has plus wrestling (70) and average grappling (50).
Niklas Stolze
Age: 27
Pro Record: 12-3
Key Losses: Lost to an 11-12 grappler in 2017.
Key Wins: Submitted an 8-2 striker.
Tools: Stolze has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Stolze is the best the UFC could do in finding a short notice opponent for Emeev. Giant mismatch here. Stolze is well rounded, but that won’t matter with Emeev having a 70 tool to overwhelm him. 
Chris’ Pick: Emeev easily takes Stolze down and gets the TKO ground and pound win in the 1st round.
Nathaniel Wood vs John Castaneda
Nathaniel Wood
Age: 26
Pro Record: 16-4
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo, Jose Quinonez, and a 6-2 striker. Knocked out a 9-1 grappler, a 7-0 grappler, and a well rounded 12-1 fighter. 
Tools: Wood has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
John Castaneda
Age: 28
Pro Record: 17-4
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 6-0 grappler.
Tools: Castaneda has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Easy fight for Wood. He goes from fighting a contender in Dodson to taking on an opponent who’s making his UFC debut with average tools, from what I can tell. Castaneda is probably the best opponent the UFC could find on short notice. Wood is better everywhere. 
Chris’ Pick: Wood by 1st round submission.

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