Brunson vs Shahbazyan, Calderwood vs Maia, Luque vs Brown Fight Picks

Derek Brunson vs Edmen Shahbazyan
Derek Brunson
Age: 36
UFC Record: 11-5
Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall. Beat Ian Heinisch and Elias Theodorou.
Tools: Brunson has above average striking paired with plus power (60-70). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age: 22
UFC Record: 5-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares and Charles Byrd.
Tools: Shahbazyan plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55)   
Derek Brunson remains the gold standard of upper tier gate keepers at middleweight. All 5 of his losses came against top #5 ranked fighters. He only loses to the best. So my point is that this fight is no gimmie for Shahbazyan. It’s going to really test his wrestling. 4 of Shahbazyan’s wins have been finishes. The only fight he didn’t finish was a split decision against Darren Stewart where Shahbazyan struggled with Stewart’s clinch and wrestling. But Shahbazyan is 22 years old. Elite prospect. Rapidly developing. I think he might get taken down a couple times in this fight but will get back up and keep it on the feet long enough…
Chris’ Pick: For Shahbazyan to knock Brunson out in the 2nd round.
Joanne Calderwood vs Jennifer Maia
Joanne Calderwood
Age: 33
UFC Record: 3-1 at 125 lbs.
Key Wins: Beat Ariane Lipski. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
Tools: Calderwood has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Jennifer Maia
Age: 31
Pro Record: 17-6-1
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. 
Key Wins: Beat Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi.
Tools: Maia has above average striking (60). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
I’m surprised Calderwood took the short notice fight against such a dangerous opponent like Maia. Dangerous because of the wrestling she posses and how that’s been Calderwood’s kryptonite up to this point. I just don’t see how Calderwood is able to stuff the takedowns.
Chris’ Pick: Maia uses her wrestling to grind Calderwood out and win by decision.
Vicente Luque vs Randy Brown
Vicente Luque
Age: 28
UFC Record: 11-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. 
Tools: Luque has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
Randy Brown
Age: 30
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Wins: Submitted Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Mickey Gall. 
Tools: Brown has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
Tough fight for Brown to win. Yes, he’s been getting better, developing. But he’s not going to be able to match Luque’s superior power. It’s also possible Luque could take Brown down and out grapple him. 
Chris’ Pick: Luque knocks Brown out in the 1st round.
Lando Vannata vs Bobby Green
Lando Vannata
Age: 28
UFC Record: 3-4-2
Key Losses: Lost to Drakkar Klose and Marc Diakiese.
Key Draws: Fought Matt Frevola and Bobby Green to draws.
Key Wins: Knocked out John Makdessi. Beat Yancy Medeiros.
Tools: Vannata has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Bobby Green
Age: 33
UFC Record: 5-5-1
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
Key Wins: Beat Erik Koch.
Tools: Green has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
There’s a reason these guys fought to a draw the first time they went against each other in 2017. The skills are very similar. But Green has a lot of miles on his body. 36 pro fights. And when the body is older, it takes longer to recover. And Green fought just 41 days ago. Vannata is younger. He’s still developing. And I didn’t expect Vannata to get by Medeiros, but he did. He’s gotten better. I think these slight edges will make the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Vannata by split decision.
Kevin Holland vs Trevin Giles
Kevin Holland
Age: 27
UFC Record: 5-1 at 185 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
Tools: Holland has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
Trevin Giles
Age: 27
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Braga Neto. 
Tools: Giles has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50). 
Giles came in to the UFC with a lot of hype but hasn’t developed as expected. He’s well rounded, but his skills remain about average. Meanwhile, Holland might be started to unlock more power in his striking as shown in knocking out Hernandez. Holland is better everywhere, but he’ll have the biggest advantage on the feet. 
Chris’ Pick: Holland will out strike Giles to cruise to a decision win.
Jonathan Martinez vs Frankie Saenz
Jonathan Martinez
Age: 26
Pro Record: 11-3
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
Key Wins: Knocked out Pingyuan Liu.
Tools: Martinez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Frankie Saenz
Age: 39
UFC Record: 5-4
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Augusto Mendes.
Key Wins: Beat Iuri Alcantara. Split decision over Merab Dvalishvili in 2017.
Tools: Saenz has average striking (50) and near plus wrestling (65).
Great betting value here with Saenz being a +150 underdog. Because Saenz is 39 years old and hasn’t fought anyone in awhile I feel people are sleeping on his wrestling. And let’s not forget Martinez lost to Soukhamthath because of Martinez’s average wrestling. If Martinez improves there and keeps the fight up, then we’re looking at a close fight that Martinez would probably edge out, but I have confident Saenz will get the takedowns and I love the price.
Chris’ Pick: Saenz by decision.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Ed Herman
Geraled Meerschaert
Age: 32
UFC Record: 6-5
Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
Key Wins: Submitted Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
Tools: Meerschaert has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Ed Herman
Age: 39
UFC Record: 12-11
Key Losses: Lost to CB Dollaway. Split decision loss to Gian Villante.
Key Wins: Knocked out Patrick Cummins. 
Tools: Herman has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Interesting fight in that this will be Meerschaert’s 205 lb debut. Will his grappling translate in the bigger weight class? I’m not sure, but I think against Herman, he should be ok. Striking is close to equal, but I see Meerschaert being able to take Herman down and out grapple him.
Chris’ Pick: Meerschaert by decision.
Nathan Maness vs Johnny Munoz
Nathan Maness
Age: 29
Pro Record: 11-1
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
Tools: Maness has above average wrestling (55).
Johnny Munoz
Age: 27
Pro Record: 10-0
Tools: Munoz has average grappling (50).
Really tough fight to pick being that Munoz has only straight up tomato cans. Matter of fact, most of his wins have been over fighters with losing records. So how good is he? Who knows for sure. But I do think there’s a likely chance that Maness can take Munoz down. Maness has way, way more experience against quality opponents.
Chris’ Pick: Maness by decision.
Jamall Emmers vs Vince Cachero
Jamall Emmers
Age: 30
Pro Record: 17-5
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Losses: Submitted by a 17-14 striker. Knocked out by Thiago Moises and Julian Erosa. 
Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013. 
Tools: Emmers has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60)
Vince Cachero
Age: 30
Pro Record: 7-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-3 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Nohelin Hernandez. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
Tools: Cachero has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Normally if a fighter comes in on 2 days notice, you usuaully give them no chance to win. But the late notice replacement fighters have been doing really well in the UFC. And then you find out that Cachero is no scrub. Yes, he lost 2 of his last 3 fights, but one of those was against potential contender Casey Kenney and the other was a split decision loss to a legit prospect. Cachero is coming off a knockout win over a decent wrestler. In this fight, I think Emmers’ wrestling is slightly better, but not enough to take Cachero down and keep him there the whole time. I think Cachero will blitz Emmers early and catch him.
Chris’ Pick: Cachero by 1st round knockout.
Chris Guttierez vs Cody Durden
Chris Gutierrez
Age: 29
Pro Record: 15-4-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Morales and a 9-3 grappler. Submitted a 13-4 grappler. Knocked out Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Geraldo de Freitas, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 10-0 wrestler, and a 10-3 striker.
Tools: Gutierrez has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Cody Durden
Age: 29
Pro Record: 11-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. 
Tools: Durden has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Durden is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice, which makes it even harder for him to pull the upset. Guttierez really impressed me last fight with the power of his leg kicks. He normally wins with volume by decision. I think Durden’s only chance is that maybe his wrestling is better than I’m grading it and maybe he can get Guttierez down. But even if he can, would he keep Guttierez down the whole fight? Probably not. And I’m pretty confident in saying Guttierez will get the better of the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Guttierez picks up an easy decision win.

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