Lewis vs Oleinik, Weidman vs Akhmedov, Pitolo vs Stewart Fight Picks

Derrick Lewis vs Aleksei Oleinik

• Derrick Lewis
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 14-5
• Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
• Tools: Lewis has above average striking paired with near plus plus power (60-75). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

• Aleksei Oleinik
• Age: 43
• UFC Record: 8-4
• Key Losses: Lost to Daniel Omielanczuk in his UFC debut.
• Key Wins: Submitted Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Split decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
• Tools: Oleinik has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).

Oleinik is extremely rare in that he seems to be still developing even though he’s 43 years old. I thought Werdum would easily beat Oleinik, with Werdum winning the striking, but Oleinik’s striking has gotten better! Obviously Oleinik doesn’t want to trade with Lewis, but I’m pretty comfortable in picking Oleinik due to being able to take Lewis down and make him pay when he’s there. Lewis has been taken down by opponents before and pops back up, but Oleinik is a different kettle of fish as he has the grappling to not let Lewis escape.

Chris’ Pick: Oleinik by 2nd round submission.

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Chris Weidman vs Omari Akhmedov

• Chris Weidman
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 10-4 UFC at 185 lbs.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum. Beat Lyoto Machida.
• Tools: Weidman has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).

• Omari Akhmedov
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 8-3-1
• Key Draws: Fought Marvin Vettori to a draw.
• Key Wins: Beat Ian Heinisch and Zak Cummings.
• Tools: Akhmedov has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).

It’s hard to tell where Weidman’s skills are at. On the one hand, Weidman has lost 5 of his last 6 fights. But on the other hand, 1 loss was to Dominick Reyes at 205 lbs. We know how good Reyes is now. Then there was the weird Gegard Mousasi loss, where the fight was stopped because the referee didn’t know the replay rules. The other 3 losses were against top 5 middleweights in the division. So he’s not losing to scrubs. And he does have that submission over Gastelum. Meanwhile, Akhmedov has been plugging away, but has taken a step forward after moving to 185 lbs. It’s a tricky fight to pick. They’re both similar, except Weidman has more knockout power. Weidman’s wrestling is probably better, by a little bit. I see this being a close fight that Weidman edges out.

Chris’ Pick: Weidman squeaks out a decision win.

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Darren Stewart vs Maki Pitolo

• Darren Stewart
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 4-4 at 185 lbs.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan. 
• Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd. Beat Bevon Lewis. Split decision win over Deron Winn.
• Tools: Stewart has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

• Maki Pitolo
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 13-5
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Losses: Lost to Callan Potter. 
• Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd and a 7-2 striker. 
• Tools: Pitolo has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).

Pitolo improved a ton in his last fight against Byrd. Striking looked better. But I’m not sure where his cardio is at. His lack of cardio was the reason he lost to Potter. And Stewart is one of those bigger middleweights that’s good in the clinch and can make someone tired. Striking here is likely close to equal, but it’ll be Stewart’s newfound wrestling that will make the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Stewart by decision.

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Yana Kunitskaya vs Julija Stoliarenko

Stoliarenko takes the fight on a week’s notice. She has solid potential. But she’ll have nothing for Kunitskaya. Kunitskaya will have the wrestling to stuff Stoliarenko’s takedowns and on the feet, it’ll be all Kunitskaya.

Chris’ Pick: 1st round knockout for Kunitskaya.

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Beniel Dariush vs Scott Holtzman

• Beniel Dariush
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 12-4-1
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
• Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw. 
• Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Drakkar Klose and James Vick. Beat Diego Ferreira, Jim Miller, and Michael Johnson by split decision. 
• Tools: Dariush has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and near plus grappling (65).

• Scott Holtzman
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 7-3
• Key Losses: Lost to Nik Lentz.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dong Hyun Ma. Beat Jim Miller.
• Tools: Holtzman has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55). 

Dariush had a rough 3 fight in skid in 2017-2018. After getting knocked out by Edson Barboza, no shame there, he then fought Dunham to a draw, and got knocked out quick by Hernandez. I thought his career might be heading towards the end. By since then, he’s gotten back on track by winning 4 in a row. Holtzman has some wrestling and is a decent test for Dariush’s grappling. I do think Dariush can get Holtzman down. Holtzman isn’t used to being on his back. And Dariush should keep rolling.

Chris’ Pick: Dariush by 2nd round submission.

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Tim Means vs Laureano Staropoli

• Tim Means
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 11-9
• Key Wins: Knocked out John Howard and Dhiego Lima. Beat Alex Garcia.
• Tools: Means has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).

• Laureano Staropoli
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 9-2
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Beat Thiago Alves.
• Tools: Staropoli has above average striking (60) and fringe average wrestling (45).

Tricky fight to pick as Staropoli lacks wins over quality opponents. But then again, he fought Muslim Salikhov last time out and didn’t get blown out. Lost a decision. Meanwhile Means chin might be going. His body has had a lot of mileage. 42 pro fights. Staropoli is young, developing. I just haven’t seen enough of him against quality guys to know where his ground game is at. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Staropoli based on projection.

Chris’ Pick: Staropoli knocks Means out in the 2nd round.

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Nasrat Haqparast vs Alex Munoz

• Nasrat Haqparast  
• Age: 24
• UFC Record: 3-2
• Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat Marc Diakiese. 
• Tools: Haqparast has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55). 

• Alex Munoz
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 6-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat Nick Newell and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Split decision over a 5-1 grappler. 
• Tools: Munoz has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55). 

This fight is designed to test Haqparast’s wrestling as Munoz is currently a one dimensional fighter who has wrestling and that’s pretty much it. At this point, I think Haqparast’s wrestling has improved enough to be able to, at the very least, scramble back up if taken down. And on the feet, Haqparast is going to wash out Munoz.

Chris’ Pick: 1st round knockout for Haqparast.

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Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman

• Andrew Sanchez
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 4-3
• Key Wins: Beat Khalil Rountree and Markus Perez.
• Tools: Sanchez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60). 

• Wellington Turman
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 16-3
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 striker and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker.
• Tools: Turman has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Turman is coming off a win over a fighter that’s similar to Sanchez, and matter of fact, Turman himself is similar to Sanchez. But Turman has a way bigger upside. This fight should be close. Maybe Turman’s striking takes another step and is close to equal with Sanchez. But Turman really impressed me with his wrestling and clinch game in beating Perez. I think he uses that to beat Sanchez.

Chris’ Pick: Turman via decision.

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Gavin Tucker vs Justin Jaynes

• Gavin Tucker
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 11-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Sam Sicillia.
• Tools: Tucker has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

• Justin Jaynes
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 16-4
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Losses: Lost to a 4-1 grappler. Split decision loss to a 9-4 striker. Lost to a 4-2 fighter.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Frank Camacho, a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
• Tools: Jaynes has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

I still haven’t seen enough footage on Jaynes to be confident on where his tools are at. His fight with Camacho only lasted 41 seconds. Tucker is a more known commodity in the sense that he’s had a hard time staying healthy. He’s only fought once in the past 3 years. And his last fight was a year ago. And he’s 34 years old. Tucker is well rounded but better on the ground, but I don’t think he’ll be able to take Jaynes down. I think fight is on the feet where Jaynes will have a big striking advantage.

Chris’ Pick: Jaynes blitzes Tucker and knocks him out in the 1st.

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Youssef Zalal vs Peter Barrett

• Youssef Zalal
• Age: 23
• Pro Record: 9-2
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-3 fighter. 
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
• Tools: Zalal has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

• Peter Barrett
• Age: 33
• Pro Record: 11-3
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Losses: Submitted by TJ Brown, who had a 7-5 record at the time. Knocked out by a well rounded 6-3 fighter. 
• Key Wins: Beat a 5-0 striker.
• Tools: Barrett has fringe average striking (45) and average wrestling (50).

Bad luck of the draw for Barrett. He was going to fight Steve Garcia. A more winnable matchup. But Garcia had to pull out and in steps elite prospect Zalal. And Zalal is better everywhere. Zalal has the biggest advantage on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Zalal picks up his first UFC knockout in the 2nd round.

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Irwin Rivera vs Ali Alqaisi

• Irwin Rivera
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 9-5
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 fighter and a 5-2 striker. Lost to a 2-0 fighter. 
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler. 
• Tools: Rivera has average striking (50).

• Ali Alqaisi
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 8-3
• Key Losses: Lost to a 4-4 grappler.
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
• Tools: Alqaisi has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average grappling (50).

Styles make fights. Alqaisi is pretty well rounded. Rivera isn’t. Alqaisi will get the fight to the ground and will do enough there to win.

Chris’ Pick: Alqaisi by decision.

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