Edgar vs Munhoz, St. Preux vs Menifield, Agapova vs Dobson Fight Picks

Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz

  • Frankie Edgar
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 8-5 at 145 lbs.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes and Yair Rodriguez. Submitted Cub Swanson. Beat Charles Oliveira, Urijah Faber, and Jeremy Stephens.
  • Tools: Edgar has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Pedro Munhoz
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 8-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Brett Johns.
  • Tools: Munhoz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).

How is Edgar’s body going to take to 135 lbs? Well, Jose Aldo was able to handle it, and if Aldo could, you got to think Edgar would be able to as well. This is a good matchup for Edgar. His wrestling all but guarantees the fight will be on the feet. And despite getting knocked out in his last fight, Edgar still has near plus striking, which is a bit better than Munhoz’s.

Chris’ Pick: I like Edgar by decision.


Ovince St. Preux vs Alonzo Menifield

  • Ovince St. Preux
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 13-9
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua back in 2014. Also knocked out Corey Anderson in 2017. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk. 
  • Tools: St. Preux has above average striking paired with plus power (60-70). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60). 
  • Alonzo Menifield
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Menifield has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).

Menifield should’ve won his last fight against Devin Clark. But Menifield made a mistake of emptying the gas tank trying to get a finish. He gassed out early in the 2nd round and Clark took over from there. The tools are still there for Menfieild. His wrestling initially held up against Clark. And I think Menifield will be able to stuff OSP’s takedowns too. On the feet, OSP is still dangerous, still has knockout power, but Menfieild has better technique. Is more accurate.

Chris’ Pick: Menifield knocks out St. Preux in the 2nd round.


Mike Rodriguez vs Martin Prachnio

  • Mike Rodriguez
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 10-4
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: He knocked out a 7-4 striker and an 8-2 striker.
  • Tools: Rodriguez has average striking (50). 
  • Martin Prachnio
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 13-4
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 16-4 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a 7-1 striker, and a 29-5 grappler. Beat a 14-2 grappler. Split decision over an 8-2 striker.
  • Tools: Prachnio has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).

Prachnio has gotten off to a slow start in the UFC so far, but the 2 losses came against successful gate keeper Sam Alvey and future title contender Magomed Ankalaev. But he has an ideal matchup here with Rodriguez. Striker vs striker. I’m pretty confident in Prachnio here.

Chris’ Pick: Prachnio knocks Rodriguez out in the 1st round.


Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson

  • Mariya Agapova
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Hannah Cifers. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
  • Tools: Agapova has plus striking (70). She also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
  • Shana Dobson
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 1-4
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Priscila Cachoeira. Lost to Lauren Mueller.
  • Tools: Dobson has average striking (50).

This matchup makes me think the UFC is having a hard time finding an opponent for Agapova, because it’s a gross mismatch. Cifers is a decent fighter, but Agapova dominated her. This fight with Dobson will be even more lopsided.

Chris’ Pick: Agapova gets the quick 1st round knockout.


Daniel Rodriguez vs Dwight Grant

  • Daniel Rodriguez
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 12-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a 7-2 striker.
  • Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
  • Dwight Grant
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Carlo Pedersoli. Split decision over Alan Jouban.
  • Tools: Grant has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).

Wow, crazy how this comes together the day before the fight and how well matched these two are. This is a true coin flip, pick em type fight. I have the tools of both to be even, accept Rodriguez has some grappling. So this fight really has to be about projection and developmentally who’s going to take a step forward. Who’s got the better confidence? I think that’s got to be Rodriguez as he just knocked out a tough vet in Tim Means. Plus Grant hasn’t fought in a year and a half. I know we’re splitting hairs here but I got to pick somebody.

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.


Mizuki Inoue vs Amanda Lemos

  • Mizuki Inoue
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 14-5
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Viviane Pereira. Split decision over Yanan Wu.
  • Tools: Inoue has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Amanda Lemos
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Miranda Granger.
  • Tools: Lemos has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average grappling (60).

Lemos really put herself on the map in upsetting Granger last year. Inoue is a good matchup for her because it’s possible she has better grappling than Inoue, but even if she doesn’t, she has another path to winning on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Lemos out strikes Inoue to win via decision.


Austin Hubbard vs Joe Solecki

  • Austin Hubbard
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 12-4
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter. 
  • Tools: Hubbard has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Joe Solecki
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 6-2 grappler.
  • Tools: Solecki has above average grappling (60)

Bad matchup for Solecki. His grappling is his best tool. And Hubbard is going to nullify it. A lot of people were really high on Hubbard when he came into the UFC. Maybe now he starts to live up to his potential. Hubbard is going to have the better stand up to win here.

Chris’ Pick: Hubbard by decision.


Isaac Villanueva vs Jordan Wright

  • Isaac Villanueva
  • Age: 36
  • Pro Record: 16-10
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 2-1 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Lost to a 4-0 wrestler. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter and a 9-4 striker. 
  • Tools: Villanueva has average striking (50).
  • Jordan Wright
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
  • Tools: Wright has above average striking (60) and average grappling (50). 

It’d be easy to write off Wright. Pun intended. He headed into the Contender with an undefeated record, but only had wins over cans. He fought Anthony Hernandez, and Hernandez starched Wright in 40 seconds (although since then, the fight was over turned by the commission due to Hernandez failing a drug test). After that fight, Wright takes on another quality opponent, a well rounded 11-4 fighter and Wright was dominant. Knocked his opponent down twice. Stuffed the take downs. Controlled on top. Normally, it’d be pretty easy to pick Wright. He’s got better striking and has legit 50 grappling. But the tricky thing is Wright is fighting on 1 week’s notice and the fight will be at 205 lbs. Wright normally fights at 185 lbs. So Villianueva could have a big size advantage and power advantage. But ultimately, I think technique and speed rule the day here.

Chris’ Pick: Wright by decision.


Matt Semelsberger vs Carlton Minus

  • Matt Semelsberger
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 6-2
  • Tools: Semelsberger has average striking (50) and below average wrestling (40).
  • Carlton Minus
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-1
  • Key Wins: Beat a 14-4 grappler and a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
  • Tools: Minus has fringe average striking (45) and average wrestling (50).

I watched Semelsberger’s last fight. On the surface, it looks good. He knocked out a 8-5 wrestler in 2 minutes. But what I found out from watching it is that this wrestler easily took Semelsberger down. Semelsberger eventually got back to his feet, clinched with his opponent on the fence, and knocked him out with a couple punches. That was the whole fight. I’m confident Minus has a stronger wrestling tool and that Semelsberger is going to struggle with that. Because of that, I’m going with Minus.

Chris’ Pick: Minus by decision.


Timur Valiev vs Trevin Jones

  • Timur Valiev
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 16-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Guttierez in 2016.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 25-5 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a well rounded 19-2 fighter. Beat Chris Gutierrez, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a 19-2 wrestler, and a 15-5 wrestler.
  • Tools: Valiev has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Trevin Jones
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 12-6
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-3 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 9-5 wrestler.
  • Tools: Jones has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).

Mark Striegl got hurt and an easy fight for Valiev just got even easier. Trevin Jones steps in and besides being a journeyman, he’s struggled with wrestlers.

Chris’ Pick: Valiev by 1st round ground and pound TKO.

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