Smith vs Rakic, Lawler vs Magny, Grasso vs Kim Fight Picks

Anthony Smith vs Aleksandar Rakic

  • Anthony Smith
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 3-2 at 205 lbs. 8-5 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Shogun Rua.
  • Tools: Smith has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
  • Aleksandar Rakic
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa.
  • Tools: Rakic has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).

Smith is a very live underdog in this fight. Sneaky good value. Smith has proven to be pretty durable. Has been in 5 round fights. So Rakic is going to get his cardio tested here. I could see him getting tired later in the fight. Smith was losing to Oezdemir and Gustafsson before taking them down in the 2nd half of the fight and winning. That could definitely happen here. But Smith’s cardio in the Teixeira fight wasn’t what we’re used to seeing from him. And the other concern for Smith is that Rakic is developing pretty rapidly. I thought Rakic beat Oezdemir. But I think Rakic’s striking is improved here. I see Rakic overwhelming Smith early and getting the finish.

Chris’ Pick: Rakic by 2nd round knockout.


Robbie Lawler vs Neil Magny

  • Robbie Lawler
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 9-5 in his 2nd stint.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rory MacDonald. Split decision over Johny Hendricks and Carlos Condit.
  • Tools: Lawler has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
  • Neil Magny
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 19-7
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Lorenz Larkin. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means.
  • Tools: Magny has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).

Really interesting fight. After seeing Lawler get dominated by dos Anjos, I thought his wrestling had regressed. But then Lawler fought Covington and his wrestling was better. He didn’t let Covington hold him down all fight. Magny is a fighter like Covington where his striking is better in the 2nd half of the fight because of his cardio. So that’s going to test Lawler. But Lawler is used to 5 round fights. This is 3 rounds. His cardio should be fine. And standing and trading with Lawler is a dangerous place for Magny. Could Magny take Lawler down? Maybe. Maybe more likely towards the end of the fight. Ultimately, I think Lawler is going to catch Magny in the first half.

Chris’ Pick: Lawler knocks Magny out in the 2nd round.


Alexa Grasso vs Ji Yeon Kim

  • Alexa Grasso
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
  • Key Wins: Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
  • Tools: Grasso has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Ji Yeon Kim
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Nadia Kassem. Split decision over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian.
  • Tools: Kim has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

This is a very winnable fight for Grasso. Kim did take a step forward in her last fight, picking up her 2nd career knockout. Maybe she’s unlocking more power. But she is still without an elite or close to elite tools. Grasso took an even bigger step forward almost beating Esparza last time out. Her wrestling improved and her stand up is almost plus. Grasso should have no problem with Kim, even at the bigger weight class.

Chris’ Pick: Grasso cruises to a decision win.


Ricardo Lamas vs Bill Algeo

  • Ricardo Lamas
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 10-6
  • Key Wins: Submitted Charles Oliveira and Dennis Bermudez. Knocked out Darren Elkins.
  • Tools: Lamas has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
  • Bill Algeo
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 13-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 27-8 grappler. Beat a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
  • Algeo has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

Algeo is well rounded, but lacking any stand out tools. Lamas’ tools have regressed but he’s still better everywhere and will have no problem dispatching Algeo.

Chris’ Pick: Lamas by decision.


Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba

  • Magomed Ankalaev
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cutelaba in their controversial first fight. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Klidson Abreu.
  • Tools: Ankalaev has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
  • Ion Cutelaba
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 4-4
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
  • Tools: Cutelaba has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (50).

Barn burner of a fight here with the winner likely becoming a contender. Cutelaba has some wrestling, but as shown in losing to Glover Teixeira, he can be taken down and doesn’t do too well off his back. On the feet, the striking could be close to equal, but I think Ankalaev has the wrestling to take Cutelaba down and win there.

Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by ground and pound TKO in the 2nd round.


Maki Pitolo vs Impa Kasanganay

  • Maki Pitolo
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 13-6
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to Callan Potter. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd and a 7-2 striker. 
  • Tools: Pitolo has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Impa Kasanganay
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • Key Wins: Beat an 8-1 wrestler and a 4-0 striker.
  • Tools: Kasanganay has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average grappling (45).

Very evenly matched fight here, except for one thing. Pitolo is going to have a big power advantage. Striking will be close. The wrestling cancels itself out. I think this is going to be a stand up fight and Pitolo is eventually going to catch Kasanganay.

Chris’ Pick: Pitolo gets the 1st round knockout.


Mallory Martin vs Hannah Cifers

  • Mallory Martin
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 6-3
  • Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 striker.
  • Tools: Martin has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average wrestling (60).
  • Hannah Cifers
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 2-4
  • Key Wins: Split decision over Polyana Viana. 
  • Tools: Cifers has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).

Cifers got obliterated by Mariya Agapova in her last fight. Let’s skip that part as Agapova looks like a future contender. One fight before that, Cifers fought Angela Hill and was doing pretty good on the feet. Close fight. Until Hill took Cifers down. Same thing with Cifers vs Maycee Barber. Cifers did okay on the feet until being taken down. And what does Martin bring to the table? Wrestling.

Chris’ Pick: Martin uses her wrestling to win by decision.


Zak Cummings vs Alessio di Chirico

  • Zak Cummings
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 9-5
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michel Prazeres.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Trevin Giles and Alexander Yakovlev. Beat Nicholas Dalby. 
  • Tools: Cummings has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
  • Alessio di Chirico
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 3-4
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Eric Spicely. Lost to Bojan Velickovic.
  • Key Wins: Split decision win over Julian Marquez.
  • Tools: Di Chirico has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50). 

The match makers have another close one for us here folks. Such a tough fight to pick. Di Chirico has some projection left in him. Should be better in this fight, hasn’t fought in close to a year. Cummings is 36 years old. Might be headed towards regression. I think it’s pretty likely di Chirico keeps it on the feet. And I do think his striking is better.

Chris’ Pick: Di Chirico by split decision.


Alex Caceres vs Austin Springer

  • Alex Caceres
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 11-10
  • Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
  • Key Wins: Beat Chase Hooper.
  • Tools: Caceres has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
  • Austin Springer
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 12-3
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Julian Erosa. Split decision loss to a well rounded 4-4 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Giga Chikadze. Knocked out a 5-0 striker.
  • Tools: Springer has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).

Coin flip fight. Springer submitted Giga Chikadze on the Contender due to how good his wrestling is. I’m picking Springer on projection. His career is on the up swing. Caceres has been inconsistent. It’s possible Springer’s wrestling could be a 65. It’s possible Caceres’ wrestling regresses to a 55. I’ll roll with the underdog.

Chris’ Pick: Springer by decision.


Emily Whitmire vs Polyana Viana

  • Emily Whitmire
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Aleksandra Albu.
  • Tools: Whitmire has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average grappling (60).
  • Polyana Viana
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-4
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Veronica Macedo. Split decision loss to Hannah Cifers.
  • Key Wins: Viana knocked out Amanda Ribas back in 2015.
  • Tools: Viana has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has fringe average grappling (45).

Viana was looking like a top prospect when she came into the UFC. She had a knockout over Ribas on her resume. Got a submission win in her UFC debut. But since then she’s lost 3 in a row and the last one especially causes concern. When Viana fought Macedo, Macedo had a 0-3 UFC record coming into that fight and Macedo submitted Viana in little over a minute. So what’s bad for Viana, is that I’m pretty sure Whitmire’s grappling is better than Macedo’s. If Viana could somehow keep it on the feet, she has a chance. She’s got a big time power advantage. But I think Whitmire will easily get Viana to the ground and that the fight won’t last long after that.

Chris’ Pick: Whitmire by 1st round submission.


Sean Brady vs Christian Aguilera

  • Sean Brady
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 12-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Court McGee and a 5-0 wrestler.
  • Tools: Brady has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Christian Aguilera
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 14-6
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 7-5 fighter. Split decision loss to an 11-6 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Aguilera has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Brady will need to be on the look out for Aguilera blitzing early, but other than that, Brady should cruise here. His wrestling might even be a 70 tool. I don’t see a path for Aguilera winning.

Chris’ Pick: Brady by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.

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