Moraes vs Sandhagen, Barboza vs Amirkhani, Rothwell vs Tybura Fight Picks

Marlon Moraes vs Corey Sandhagen

  • Marlon Moraes
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. Submitted Assuncao in a rematch.
  • Tools: Moraes has plus striking (70). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
  • Corey Sandhagen
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 5-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
  • Tools: Sandhagen has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).

Moraes started his UFC career 1-1 with two close split decisions. A split loss to Assuncao and a split win over John Dodson. Then Moraes dramatically changed his approach. He was going to blitz his opponent at the beginning of the fight, going for the finish. And it worked. He got 3 spectacular 1st round finishes in a row which got him a title shot. He tried the same approach again on Henry Cejudo and it almost worked. Cejudo got rocked, but stayed in the fight. Moraes started to really gas in the 2nd round and Cejudo took advantage, finishing Moraes in the 3rd. The Moraes vs Aldo fight was different because both Moraes and Aldo don’t have great cardio, they’re both very similar. Which brings me to the Moraes vs Sandhagen fight. Even though they’re going 5 rounds, I really believe the 1st round will decide it. Sandhagen got subbed in less than 2 minutes in the #1 contender fight with Aljamain Sterling. And he knows Moraes is most dangerous in the 1st round. I believe in Sandhagen’s talent. I think he’ll survive the 1st. And again, being this fight is 5 rounds, I think Moraes will get tired, Sandhagen’s cardio and pace will take over. And it’s likely Sandhagen mixes in some take downs late in the fight. Give Moraes the 1st round, but it’ll be all Sandhagen after that.

Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by decision.


Edson Barboza vs Makwan Amirkhani

  • Edson Barboza
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 0-1 at 145 lbs. 14-8 UFC record at 155 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Beat Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez.
  • Tools: Barboza has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Makwan Amirkhani
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Danny Henry and Chris Fishgold. 
  • Tools: Amirkhani has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).

This is a projection pick for me. On paper, Barboza should win this fight. Matter of fact, we could very well see a repeat of Amirkhani vs Shane Burgos, where Amirkhani got a couple take downs, failed to keep Burgos down, and then on the feet got picked apart. And Barboza has more power than Burgos. But I’m projecting that Amirkhani’s grappling will eventually become a 70. It could happen in this fight. I also rewatched the Barboza vs Ige fight. Ige decided to just stand and trade with Barboza most of the fight. But with less than 2 minutes, took Barboza down with not much problem and kept him there the rest of the time. I’m also making this pick based on my belief that Barboza could be heading for regression at any time. Barboza has a staggering 23 UFC fights. He doesn’t fight that many wrestlers or grapplers. And Barboza had been preparing for fellow striker Sodiq Yusuff this whole time, but on less than 2 weeks notice, he gets the grappler. I could be wrong, but Amirkhani is worth the roll of the dice at +240.

Chris’ Pick: Amirkhani by 2nd round submission.


Ben Rothwell vs Marcin Tybura

  • Ben Rothwell
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 8-6
  • Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem in 2014. 
  • Tools: Rothwell has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50). 
  • Marcin Tybura
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 6-5
  • Key Wins: Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
  • Tools: Tybura has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Not the most exciting match up. Tybura has really turned to his wrestling to win fights lately. But he’s not going to be able to take down one of the biggest heavyweights in the division. On the feet, I think Tybura’s chin is suspect.

Chris’ Pick: Rothwell knocks out Tybura in the 2nd round.


Dricus du Plessis vs Markus Perez

  • Dricus du Plessis
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 14-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out a 13-2 striker and a well rounded 30-7 fighter.
  • Tools: du Plessis has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Markus Perez
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Hernandez.
  • Tools: Perez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).

Close fight. Du Plessis is coming in with some hype. But the reality is that Perez is one of the better 2-3 fighters in the UFC. He lost a very short notice fight to Eyrk Anders. And lost to Andrew Sanchez and Wellington Turman. Those are quality guys. And his last fight before he signed with the UFC was a submission win over Ian Heinisch. I think Perez will have a strength advantage. Will be able to push du Plessis against the fence. Might be able to take him down.

Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.


Tom Aspinall vs Alan Baudot

  • Tom Aspinall
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jake Collier and a 6-2 wrestler. 
  • Tools: Aspinall has above average striking (60) and fringe average wrestling (45).
  • Alan Baudot
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • Tools: Baudot has average striking (50) and below average wrestling (40).

Tough fight to pick here in the sense that the only quality opponent Baudot has gone against was Dalcha Lungiambula, and Lungiambula starched Baudot in 26 seconds. All of Baudot’s other wins were over cans. But. Baudot trains with Francis Ngannou. So that has to count for something. Aspinall really impressed me in easily dispatching Collier. And Baudot normally fights at 205 lbs. Aspinall is a full size 265 lb. heavyweight. That absolutely counts for something. As we just saw recently in the Ben Rothwell vs Ovince St Preux fight, OSP seemed to have more skill, but Rothwell’s size advantage was too much.

Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 2nd round knockout.


Youssef Zalal vs Ilia Topuria

  • Youssef Zalal
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-3 fighter. 
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
  • Tools: Zalal has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has average grappling (50).
  • Ilia Topuria
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 grappler and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler.
  • Tools: Topuria has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).

Seung Woo Choi pulls out and Topuria steps in on a little over a week’s notice. And I will say this is a much, much more difficult fight for Zalal. Not only do I think Topuria is better than Choi, but Topuria is a completely different style of fighter. Zalal has been training this whole time to take on a striker in Choi, but instead he gets a grappler. I had Zalal’s grappling at a 55, but I rewatched his fight with Jordan Griffin. And Griffin, who I know has 55 grappling as I’ve seen him many times, out grappled Zalal. So I have to down grade Zalal’s grappling to a 50. And I’m also confident Topuria is a better grappler than Griffin. I think Topuria gets it done.

Chris’ Pick: Topuria by decision.


Tom Breese vs KB Bhullar

  • Tom Breese
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Kelly.
  • Tools: Breese has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60). 
  • KB Bhullar
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • Tools: Bhullar has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

It’s tough to get a gague on Bhullar’s skills. He hasn’t beaten anybody. The toughest opponent he’s fought was UFC vet Matt Dwyer, with an 11-5 record. And Bhullar went 5 rounds with him without being able to finish. Breese is a known quantity. Because of the gains he’s made on his striking, he has the upside of a contender. I can’t imagine Bhullar having the wrestling to take Breese down. And I can’t imagine Bhullar out striking Breese.

Chris’ Pick: Breese knocks Bhullar out in the 1st round.


Rodrigo Nascimento vs Chris Daukaus

  • Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker.
  • Tools: Nascimento has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
  • Chris Daukaus
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 8-3
  • Tools: Daukaus has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

Daukaus is very similar to Nascimento’s last opponent Mayes. Striker. Has some wrestling. And like Mayes, Daukaus won’t be able to stuff the take downs.

Chris’ Pick: Nascimento by 1st round submission.


Impa Kasanganay vs Joaquin Buckley

  • Impa Kasanganay
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Maki Pitolo and an 8-1 wrestler and a 4-0 striker.
  • Tools: Kasanganay has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
  • Joaquin Buckley
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Buckley has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Buckley is a pretty good prospect, but boy, he’s getting matched up with some stiff competition. First Kevin Holland, not Kasanganay. Wrestling will cancel out. Stand up fight. Kasanganay proved in the Pitolo fight he’s got legit 65 striking. If he can find a way to unlock more power, he could be a contender.

Chris’ Pick: Kasanganay by decision.


Tony Kelley vs Al Alqaisi

  • Tony Kelley
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 5-2
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Kevin Aguilar.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 wrestler. 
  • Tools: Kelley has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
  • Ali Alqaisi
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 8-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 9-5 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Alqaisi has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average grappling (50).

I’m still high on Kelley, despite losing to Kai Kamaka III in his UFC debut. Kelley’s going to have a big wrestling advantage. I’m confident he’ll be able to take Alqaisi down and grind out a win with it.

Chris’ Pick: Kelley by decision.


Giga Chikadze vs Omar Morales

  • Giga Chikadze
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Beat Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis by split decision. 
  • Tools: Chikadze has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Omar Morales
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 10-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
  • Tools: Morales has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

What a fun fight. Almost guaranteed to play out on the feet. Striker vs striker. Both have dark horse potential as contenders. Both are more volume guys than knockout artists. I just think Morales is a little better.

Chris’ Pick: Morales by decision.


Tracy Cortez vs Stephanie Egger

  • Tracy Cortez
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Mariya Agapova. Split decision win over a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
  • Tools: Cortez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
  • Stephanie Egger
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Egger has average striking (50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Bea Malecki is out and Egger is in and dare I say, this is a much tougher fight for Cortez. Egger is a big bantamweight who sometimes fights at 145 lbs. On the feet, it could be close, but I still think Cortez will have the wrestling advantage. I see her taking Egger down and due to Egger taking this fight on about a week’s notice, her cardio won’t keep up with Cortez’s.

Chris’ Pick: Cortez by decision.


Tagir Ulanbekov vs Bruno Silva

  • Tagir Ulanbekov
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 10-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat an 8-1 grappler and a 9-2 wrestler.
  • Tools: Ulanbekov has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Bruno Silva
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 10-4-2
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenny and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler.
  • Tools: Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).

Ulanbekov trains with Khabib and there’s a lot of hype on him coming into this fight. Bruno Silva is probably better than most people realize. His fight with rising potential contender David Dvorak was close. But Ulanbekov has the wrestling to keep this on the feet. And despite the lack of knockout power, Ulanbekov has 65 striking.

Chris’ Pick: Ulanbekov by decision.

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