Anthony Smith vs Devin Clark
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 205 lbs. 8-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Shogun Rua.
- Tools: Smith has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Devin Clark
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
- Key Wins: Beat Alonzo Menifield and Mike Rodriguez.
- Tools: Clark has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I understand why the odds show a close fight. Rakic kept Smith on his back the majority of their fight. And Glover Teixeira took Smith down repeatedly to TKO him. But both fights had context. Rakic took Smith’s legs out early in the fight, compromising his ability to get back up. And in the Teixeira fight, Smith gassed out in the 1st round trying to finish Teixeira. Before that, Smith was able to stuff most of Jon Jones’ take downs. And was able to beat Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir using his grappling. So I grade his grappling as a 65 tool with confidence. And Clark’s wrestling isn’t good enough to keep Smith on his back all fight.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 3rd round knockout.
Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato
- Miguel Baeza
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key WIns: Knocked out Matt Brown. Beat a 10-3 striker.
- Tools: Baeza has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Takashi Sato
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 16-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 13-10 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a 10-1 striker.
- Tools: Sato has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Sato showed off legit 55 wrestling in his fight with Belal Muhammad. But will it be enough to take Baeza down? Probably not. It’s possible but I don’t think it’s likely he’s able to keep Baeza down all fight. Baeza’s striking is better.
Chris’ Pick: Baeza by 2nd round knockout.
Josh Parisian vs Parker Porter
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a 24-8 striker.
- Tools: Parisian has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
- Parker Porter
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 9-6
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Porter has fringe average striking (45). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Parisian looks like one of the better heavyweight prospects. He’s already beat two fighters on The Contender that are better than Porter. Maybe Porter has a chance if he can take Parisian down, but I doubt it.
Chris’ Pick: Parisian by 2nd round knockout.
Spike Carlyle vs Bill Algeo
- Spike Carlyle
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aalon Cruz. Beat an 11-3 grappler.
- Tools: Carlyle has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 27-8 grappler. Beat a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Algeo has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
It’s tempting to grade Algeo’s tools a little higher with how good he looked against Ricardo Lamas. But the two things to remember is 1) it’s possible Lamas regressed in his last UFC fight and 2) we can’t forget that Algeo got beat by Brendan Loughnane on The Contender. I’ve heard some say that Carlyle is a one round fighter or that he fades towards the end of the fight, but that’s not true. He hung in there with cardio monster Billy Quarantillo. Carlyle has high upside.
Chris’ Pick: Carlyle by 1st round knockout.
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Norma Dumont Viana
- Ashlee Evans-Smith
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Sarah Moras.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Veronica Macedo. Split decision over Marion Reneau.
- Tools: Evans-Smith has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Norma Dumont Viana
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Tools: Dumont Viana has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Odds makers initially priced Dumont Viana as the favorite but the vast majority of the money has come in on Evans-Smith making her the favorite. And I understand why that would be the case. Dumont Viana only has 5 pro fights and she got knocked out in 3 minutes in her UFC debut. And Evans-Smith did pretty decent against a top contender in Andrea Lee. But I think a lot of people are missing out on context. Dumont Viana fought at 145 lbs against the 3rd best 145 lb fighter in the world in Megan Anderson. And in those 3 minutes, she was able to clinch Anderson against the fence, and the striking with Anderson was close to equal before she got knocked out. This fight was supposed to be at 135 lbs, but Dumont Viana missed weight by 4 lbs. So maybe her future is at 145 lbs, but she’s going to be much bigger than Evans-Smith. And Evans-Smith’s last fight against Lee was at 125 lbs. She was much bigger than Lee. And instead of Evans-Smith fighting a 125 lb fighter, she’ll be taking on a 140 lb fighter.
Chris’ Pick: Dumont Viana by decision.
Kai Kamaka III vs Jonathan Pearce
- Kai Kamaka III
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-1 wrestler and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Kamaka has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker.
- Tools: Pearce has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
I was so impressed with Kamaka when he made his UFC debut against Tony Kelley. Kelley is a legit fighter. And despite Kamaka coming in on short notice, Kamaka dominated the fight until he started getting tired towards the end. Kamaka’s striking tool could be a 60, I’m not 100% sure. Pearce is well rounded, but none of his tools standout. This is a mismatch.
Chris’ Pick: Kamaka by decision.
Martin Day vs Anderson dos Santos
- Martin Day
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Davey Grant. Split decision loss to Pingyuan Liu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Tools: Day has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
- Anderson dos Santos
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 20-8
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Andre Ewell.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 17-4 grappler.
- Tools: dos Santos has fringe average striking (45) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Dos Santos might look like a journeyman. His age and pro record. But he showed at his best weight class, 135 lbs, against Andre Ewell, he does have 55 grappling. He took Ewell down a couple times. I was impressed. But I think this fight plays out pretty similar to dos Santos vs Ewell. I think dos Santos takes Day down a couple times. Day gets up. Day gets the better of the striking.
Chris’ Pick: Day by decision.
Rachel Ostovich vs Gina Mazany
- Rachael Ostovich
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Tools: Ostovich has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Gina Mazany
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Beat Yanan Wu.
- Tools: Mazany has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50).
Mazany might have a 1-4 UFC record, but she’s had a very tough schedule. Her 4 losses were to Sara McMann, Lina Lansberg, Macy Chiasson, and Julia Avila. All quality opponents. And the 1 win was over Yanan Wu. She got knocked out quick in her last 2 fights in under 2 minutes. Lansberg used her clinch game to control Mazany most of the fight. So the last time she really had time to put her striking on display was back in 2017 against Yanan. I think her striking is a 55 tool, but it’s hard to be sure since I haven’t seen much of it in the past 3 years. Ostovich showed improved striking in her last fight against Paige VanZant but that was almost 2 years ago. Lots of unknowns in this fight. I think Mazany’s striking wins it.
Chris’ Pick: Mazany by decision.
Su Mudaerji vs Malcolm Gordon
- Su Mudaerji
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Louis Smolka and a 10-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: Su has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Malcolm Gordon
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by an 11-8 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and an 8-1 striker. Beat a 6-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Gordon has fringe average striking (45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
When Su came in at 22 years old against Louis Smolka, he looked one dimensional. His striking kept up with Smolka, but he was dominated on the ground. Then almost a year later, he fights Soukhamthath, a bigger guy. Su’s natural weight class is 125 lbs, Soukhamthath’s is 135 lbs. The main round to watch in their fight was the 1st round. Soukhamthath broke his hand sometime towards the end of the 1st round and was compromised the rest of the fight. But in that first round, Su stuffed Soukhamthath’s take downs. And Soukhamthath has 55 wrestling. It was an impressive improvement to see from Su. I’m pretty sure that Gordon’s wrestling is a 55. He got taken down and submitted by Amir Albazi in his UFC debut, but right before he was submitted, Gordon was able to sweep and reverse position. I think Su is able to make most of this fight play out on the feet where he’ll have a monster advantage. Su being over a 3 to 1 favorite is a bit heavy, but not enough to scare me away.
Chris’ Pick: Su by 2nd round knockout.
Luke Sanders vs Joseph Maness
- Luke Sanders
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: Sanders has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Joseph Maness
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 10-0 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
- Tools: Maness has fringe average striking (45) and average wrestling (50).
Maness is supposed to be a great wrestler. But he fought another wrestler in Johnny Munoz in his last fight. Munoz took the fight on short notice. Dominated Maness in the 1st round, emptying the gas tank. But still had another to out muscle him in the clinch in the last 2 rounds. In my opinion, Munoz easily won the fight over Maness. That said, I can’t give Maness a higher wrestling grade than 50. Sanders has demonstrated wrestling. He got the better of the clinch exchanges with Soukhamthath. And he stuff Rani Yahya’s take downs before Yahya pulled guard and submitted him. This is going to be a stand up fight and Sanders, who’s under rated, has the much better stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Sanders by 2nd round knockout.