Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Hermansson has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez.
- Tools: Vettori has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
This fight is a real coin flip. And I’m very, very surprised that Vettori is going in as the favorite. Vettori is younger, sure. He’s been on a roll. But Hermansson has way less question marks. He’s safer. I don’t question the level of his tools. I know he has 70 striking from how he out classed Jacare Souza on the feet. I know he has the cardio to go 5 rounds. I know Hermansson has the more dangerous, fight finishing grappling. Vettori probably has 70 striking, but Andrew Sanchez did have his moments on the feet when he fought Vettori. And Vettori probably has 65 wrestling, but maybe it’s a 60. He did fight Omari Akhmedov to a draw just 3 years ago. Sanchez failed to take Vettori down, but it’s not like Vettori showed wrestling dominance against Sanchez. Vettori has never been in a main event. And was training for a 3 round fight against Jacare on December 2. Now he’s fighting 5 rounds. Way more question marks on the Vettori side.
Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by 3rd round submission.
Ovince St. Preux vs Jamahal Hill
- Ovince St. Preux
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 14-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield and Shogun Rua back in 2014. Also knocked out Corey Anderson in 2017. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Tools: St. Preux has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Darko Stosic. Knocked out a 9-2 striker.
- Tools: Hill has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
St. Preux’s tools are hard to figure out because he’s had a lot of ups and downs, but this past year, in his last 3 fights, he’s been a lot better. He lost to 265 lb heavyweight Ben Rothwell, due to Rothwell’s size in the clinch, but St. Preux looked great against Menifield and Oleksiejczuk. But I think 65 for his striking and grappling is the right grade. Look, I understand the line here with Hill being a one and a half favorite. He’s the young, up and coming hot prospect. But rationally, St. Preux should be the favorite. He has way more power than Hill. And Darko Stosic has already proved Hill can be taken down. I love St. Preux anywhere north of +150.
Chris’ Pick: St. Preux by 1st round submission.
Gabriel Benitez vs Justin Jaynes
- Gabriel Benitez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Enrique Barzola.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight.
- Tools: Benitez has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Justin Jaynes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-1 grappler. Split decision loss to a 9-4 striker. Lost to a 4-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frank Camacho, a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Tools: Jaynes has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
On the surface, Benitez has lost his last 2 fights and you might think his career is starting to decline. But he actually showed improved striking. He clipped Sodiq Yusuff a couple times and the striking was pretty close until Benitez got caught and was knocked out. The Benitez vs Omar Morales fight was about as close as it gets. The striking was very equal, despite Morales getting the unanimous decision. Jaynes last fight against Gavin Tucker is a better representation of his skills vs the quick knockout over Camacho. Sometimes fighters with the better striking get knocked out. So in that sense, Jaynes has a puncher’s chance. But Benitez should win here.
Chris’ Pick: Benitez by 2nd round knockout.
Roman Dolidze vs John Allan
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Dolidze has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- John Allan
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker and a 6-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
- Tools: Allan has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Dolidze looks like a prospect who has the upside of being a contender. Undefeated. All 7 wins have come by finish. Well rounded. 4 knockouts. 3 submissions. 3 of his 7 wins are over quality opponents. And Allan is better than his record. This won’t be a cake walk fight. It’s possible my grade of Dolidze’s grappling is too high. Maybe it’s closer to a 50. Allan has a path to win, which is find a way to take Dolidze down, like he took Mike Rodriguez down. But I’m picking Dolidze because I think he’ll be able to stuff most of the take downs and get up when taken down.
Chris’ Pick: Dolidze by 2nd round knockout.
Matt Wiman vs Jordan Leavitt
- Matt Wiman
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Tools: Wiman has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Tools: Leavitt has fringe average striking (45) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Wiman is a shell of his former self. He’s not the same successful mid tier gate keeper. His last fight, Joe Solecki held him down pretty much the whole time. Going for submission after submission. The only thing Wiman has going for him is his toughness as Solecki wasn’t able to submit him. Leavitt looks green, but he has wrestling and I see a repeat of Wiman vs Solecki playing out here.
Chris’ Pick: Leavitt by decision.
Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez
- Louis Smolka
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-7 overall, 1-1 at 135 lbs.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paddy Holohan and Mudaerji Su. Knocked out Ben Nguyen.
- Tools: Smolka has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Jose Quinonez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Beat Marco Beltran, Diego Rivas and Teruto Ishihara.
- Tools: Quinonez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Smolka has some newfound power after moving up to 135 lbs. And that could be the difference in the fight. He was knocked down and submitted by Nathaniel Wood last year. Last fight, he was knocked out by Sean O’Malley. I don’t think Smolka is able to get Quinonez to the ground, so I think this is on the feet, striking is close, but Smolka has a power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Smolka by 2nd round knockout.
Ilia Topuria vs Damon Jackson
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 grappler and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat Youssef Zalal.
- Tools: Topuria has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Knocked out a 12-3 grappler.
- Tools: Jackson has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
The Jackson vs Bektic fight really goes to show that although you can comfortable pick a fighter to win, due to a very likely outcome. But it doesn’t mean the actual fight goes that way. Bektic dominated for the first 2 rounds with superior wrestling. For some reason stayed away from the striking. Jackson stayed in the fight. And caugh Bektic in a guillotine in the 3rd round. Just like sometimes fighters get caught with a knockout punch, somtimes they get caught in a choke. That shouldn’t happen to Topuria who really impressed me, beating a quality up and comer in Zalal. Jackson might be able to take Topuria down but I don’t see Jackson being able to keep him there.
Chris’ Pick: Topuria by decision.
Gian Villante vs Jake Collier
- Gian Villante
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 0-1 at heavyweight. 7-8 at light heavyweight.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Tom Lawlor and Shogun Rua. Split decision losses to Patrick Cummins and Sam Alvey.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Corey Anderson in 2015.
- Tools: Villante has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jake Collier
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 0-1 at heavyweight. 3-3 at light heavyweight.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Vitor Miranda and Dongi Yang.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat a 9-2 grappler.
- Tools: Collier has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Both of these guys are in a tough spot. Their ideal weight class would be light heavyweight but as both are getting older, it’s probably harder to cut the weight. And it’s just a gigantic, monstrous jump up from 205 lbs to 265 lbs. So basically, both have stopped cutting weight. And both would be on equal footing. I know Collier’s last fight didn’t last long but Villante looked much more comfortable at heavyweight, almost beating one of the bigger heavyweights in Greene, knocking him down in the 3rd round.
Chris’ Pick: Villante by 1st round knockout.