Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
- Kamaru Usman
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
- Tools: Usman has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus plus wrestling (80).
- Gilbert Burns
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-3 overall. 5-0 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Alex Oliveira and Mike Davis. Beat Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
- Tools: Burns has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
Usman’s last fight against Masvidal finally convinced me his wrestling deserves a top of the scale 80 grade. Yes, Masvidal did come in on a week’s notice. He got tired towards the end of the fight. But Usman’s ability to tire his opponent out in the clinch played a role too. Usman probably has the best wrestling in the UFC next to Khabib. Now, it’s possible that Burns striking is a 75. It was that good against Woodley. But his striking has only started to emerge. And Woodley has been a shell of his former self. I’m pretty confident that Burns’ striking though is at least equal to Usman’s. Which means Usman is likely to use his wrestling to win here in a typical Usman fight.
Chris’ Pick: Usman by decision.
Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 22
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson.
- Tools: Barber has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Alexa Grasso
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Beat Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
- Tools: Grasso has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
Grasso has really improved her wrestling by leaps and bounds. It used to be her Achilles heel. Got out wrestled by Herrig. Barely beat Randa Markos by split decision. Then she took on Esparza who has 70 wrestling and although she got taken down a few times, she also got up a few times too. That said, the one main differentiator in this fight is Barber’s power. She’ll have a big power advantage. Plus, projection wise, she’s going to be better in this fight. She’s only 22 years old. Fighters at that age develop at a more rapid clip. Yes, she is coming off a torn ACL. So there’s a little risk in picking Barber because of that. But as long as she’s healthy, I see Barber coming out on top.
Chris’ Pick: Barber by 2nd round knockout.
Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Gastelum has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Ian Heinisch
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Cezar Fereira.
- Tools: Heinisch has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
It’s hard to tell if Heinisch’s striking has taken a step forward. He looked good against Meerschaert in his last fight, but it only lasted a minute. Despite Gastelum losing 3 fights in a row, he’s still elite. He barely lost to Darren Till and Israel Adesanya. Two guys with 75 striking. Gastelum then got caught in a heel hook submission. Those don’t happen in the UFC too often. I think this fight is cut and dry. Even if Heinisch’s striking improves, I highly doubt it’s going to improve enough to out strike Gastelum.
Chris’ Pick: Gastelum by decision.
Julian Marquez vs Maki Pitolo
- Julian Marquez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
- Key Wins: Submitted Darren Stewart. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Marquez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
- Maki Pitolo
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-7
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Callan Potter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Pitolo has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Pitolo has great value as an underdog here. Because his tools are pretty similar to di Chirico, who Marquez lost to in his last fight. And Pitolo probably has a little bit more power than di Chirico. Sure, the Pitolo loss against Callan Potter remains a bad one. Pitolo gassed out. I thought less of him after that fight. But since then, Pitolo has shown that fight to be an aberration. A fluke. He also lost to Darren Stewart and Impa Kasanganay, but both of those guys are quality. This could be a close fight. Striking might be close to equal. But Pitolo has better wrestling, a little more power, and has been a lot more active. This will be Marquez’s first fight in almost 3 years.
Chris’ Pick: Pitolo by 2nd round knockout.
Jim Miller vs Bobby Green
- Jim Miller
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 21-14
- Key Wins: Submitted Roosevelt Roberts and Clay Guida.
- Tools: Miller has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Bobby Green
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Beat Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Tools: Green has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Both Miller and Green are grizzled vets. But I think Green is the one with more mileage left. I know where Green’s tools are. I think his last loss had more to do with Thiago Moises taking a step forward than Green taking a step back. Miller on the other hand appears to be starting to take a step back. Green should have the ability to keep most of this fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
Rodolfo Vieira vs Anthony Hernandez
- Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Tools: Vieira has average striking paired with below average power (50-40) and plus grappling (70).
- Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Brendan Allen.
- Tools: Hernandez has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
This is a dangerous fight to bet. Vieira is most likely to win, but he opened around -500 and that’s just crazy. The price is down to -450 in some books, but that’s still a little heavy. I have Vieira’s grappling graded as a 70, but it’s not a confident grade. He’s only had 2 UFC fights against lower tier competition. Part of me think’s his grappling might be closer to a 65 at this point. So it’s somewhere in that range until I see him fight someone with a higher level of grappling like Hernandez. And speaking of Hernandez, he really broke out in that Jun Yong Park fight. Park has wrestling, but Hernandez was able to take him down repeatedly and get the submission in the 2nd round. Then he got knocked out by Kevin Holland, and well, there’s no shame in that. But as far as this fight goes, I think Hernandez is a live underdog. I’m not saying he’s likely to win, but I’m saying he has a chance.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by 2nd round submission.
Belal Muhammad vs Dhiego Lima
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Beat Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Tools: Muhammad has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Dhiego Lima
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jesse Taylor. Lost to Yushin Okami.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Laprise. Split decision over Court McGee.
- Tools: Lima has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
For the people that know Dhiego Lima, I’d guess that most think of him as a striker. And yes, that is what he does most of his fights. But in my opinion, his best tool is his wrestling. When he fought Court McGee, McGee got nowhere close to taking Lima down. I’d even say Lima’s wrestling is better than McGee’s. So my point is that this is going to be a standup fight. Muhammad isn’t going to just take Lima down. But fortunately for Muhammad, his striking has gotten better as seen in his last fight with Good.
Chris’ Pick: Muhammad by decision.
Mallory Martin vs Polyana Viana
- Mallory Martin
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Hannah Cifers. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 striker.
- Tools: Martin has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Polyana Viana
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Veronica Macedo. Split decision loss to Hannah Cifers.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas back in 2015. Submitted Emily Whitmire.
- Tools: Viana has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Martin was in real trouble against Cifers in her last fight. Wanted to test her striking against Cifers. Got knocked down a couple times. Was almost finished. But she survived the 1st round and then rebounded in the 2nd by taking Cifers down and submitting her. Viana came into the UFC with some hype but has yet to live up to her potential. Viana has 11 wins. 7 submissions, 5 knockouts. You’d think with more submissions and pulling off a submission win over a grappler in Whitmire, I’d bump up her grappling grade to a 55. But I’m not because 1) Whitmire easily took Viana down. And Whitmire just got caught in an armbar. It happens sometimes, just like sometimes there’s quick knockouts. Despite the finish, I don’t think Viana is a better grappler than Whitmire. And 2) Viana isn’t that consistent. I give her grappling a 50 grade because of moments like when in the fight before Whitmire, she got submitted by Macedo in about a minute.
Chris’ Pick: Martin by 2nd round submission.
Andre Ewell vs Chris Guttierez
- Andre Ewell
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Jonathan Martinez and Irwin Rivera.
- Tools: Ewell has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-4-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Morales and a 9-3 grappler. Submitted a 13-4 grappler. Knocked out Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Geraldo de Freitas, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 10-0 wrestler, and a 10-3 striker.
- Tools: Guttierez has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
Ewell loses his fight with Cody Stamann and instead gets Guttierez. Evenly matched fight but I like Guttierez’s power more. There’s a slight concern Ewell might want to wrestle Guttierez the whole fight and that Ewell’s wrestling is a little better. But it’s not like Ewell is coming in on a full camp. He actually took the Stamann fight on short notice too. So the cardio should be pretty equal. I think Guttierez’s thundering leg kicks will be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Guttierez by 2nd round knockout.
Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Merab Dvalishvili. Beat Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Tools: Simon has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Brian Kelleher
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
- Tools: Kelleher has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
The main danger in this fight is Kelleher’s grappling. Simon is very wrestling centric. That’s how he wins fights. But taking the fight to the ground with Kelleher could be dangerous. On the feet, it’s close to even. so it’s likely Simon is going to take his chances. It’s possible Simon gets caught in a submission, but the most likely outcome is Simon staying out of harm’s way to pick up the win.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.
Gabe Green vs Philip Rowe
- Gabe Green
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Tools: Green has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Philip Rowe
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 grappler.
- Tools: Rowe has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Green has a lot of value as a close to even money underdog. And it’s because the surface results of their last fights is a bit deceiving. Yes, Green lost his UFC debut. But it was to Daniel Rodriguez. And Green took the fight on a few days notice. And although Green got out struck, he didn’t get wiped out, and his cardio held up through all 3 rounds. Meanwhile, with Rowe, he was very close to being knocked out in his Contender fight with Leon Shahbazyan. And I could be wrong, but in my opinion, Rowe’s win had more to do with Shahbazyan gassing out than Rowe’s skills being superior. Green should be priced around -250 because of the striking advantage he’ll have here.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
Gillian Robertson vs Miranda Maverick
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
- Tools: Robertson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 23
- Pro/Amateur Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to DeAnna Bennett.
- Key Wins: Submitted DeAnna Bennett and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat a 6-1 grappler.
- Tools: Maverick has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
Robertson might have a 9-5 pro record, but every loss she has had been to fighters that are currently in the UFC. Lost to Hannah Goldy and Cynthia Calvillo outside the UFC. Lost to Barb Honchak on The Ultimate Fighter. Granted these losses happened when Robertson was 21 years old or younger. She also beat Cheyanne Buys and submitted Hannah Cifers before making it to the UFC too. My point is she’s always taken on tough opponents. And Maverick is another one. Now, my knee jerk reaction when first seeing this fight booked was, okay, lesser opponent for Robertson. A step back in competition from Santos. Robertson has 70 grappling and should win. So I was shocked to see some books open with Maverick at -200. And still as of now, Maverick hovers at -175. I rewatched the Robertson vs Santos fight and reality says Robertson doesn’t have 70 grappling. Because Santos dominated the fight with her wrestling. After watching that, Santos probably has 70 wrestling, might even have 75 wrestling. But I’ve had to downgrade Robertson’s grappling to a 65. And even though Maverick didn’t show her ground game in her UFC debut vs Jojua, I’ve seen it in Invicta. She has wrestling and grappling. Both 60s. She’s very well rounded. And that well roundedness is why she’s the favorite and why I’m picking her to win this fight. Maverick really reminds me of Maycee Barber and I think this fight will be similar to Robertson vs Barber.
Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.