Szalay vs Jieleyisi, Yin vs Yoshida, Nakamura vs Park Fight Picks – Road to UFC Season 4 Shanghai Quarterfinals 1 – May 22, 2025

Sebastian Szalay vs Baergeng Jieleyisi

• Sebastian Szalay
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 8-1
• Key Wins: Beat an 8-0 wrestler and a 6-0 wrestler. Split decision over a 4-0 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Baergeng Jieleyisi
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 18-6
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Wins: Beat a 12-3 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Szalay trains with Alexander Volkanovski at Freestyle in Austrailia. Very confident Szalay’s wrestling is no better than a 60. Also possible his striking could be as low as a 60, but his cardio is great.

Chris’ Pick: Szalay by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Szalay -300

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Shuai Yin vs Kai Yoshida

• Shuai Yin
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 17-5
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 19-4 fighter. Split decision over a 19-17 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Kai Yoshida
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 6-1
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: average (50)

I thought the judges got it wrong and that Yin beat eventual Road to UFC winner Kierandip Singh Sahota. This looks like a big mismatch. If a 4-0 grappler who i think has 55-60ish grappling could take down and submit Yoshida in a few minutes, I don’t think Yin will have much of a problem doing the same thing. And it’s not like Yoshida got out classed on the ground years ago. This happened in his last fight, just a few months ago back in January.

Chris’ Pick: Yin by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yin -400

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Keiichiro Nakamura vs Eo Jin Park

• Keiichiro Nakamura
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 5-1
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: above average (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Eo Jin Park
• Age: 23
• Pro Record: 9-1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 striker.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I’m really impressed with Nakamura. He looks like a UFC level fighter. Good length, knows how to use it. Great patience. Watched him knock out a durable, well rounded 6-7-2 fighter who’d never been knocked out before but Nakamura got the KO in the 1st round.

Chris’ Pick: Nakamura by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nakamura -300

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Wataru Yamauchi vs Namsrai Batbayar

• Wataru Yamauchi
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 7-1
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-10-1 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

• Namsrai Batbayar
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 7-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Batbayar by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Batbayar -125

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Xiaocan Feng vs Arisa Matsuda

• Xiaocan Feng
• Age: 23
• Pro Record: 10-3
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Feier Huang and a 7-3 grappler. Submitted Miki Motono. Beat a 14-5 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Arisa Matsuda
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 6-0
• Key Wins: Split decision over a 4-0 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: average (50)

Chris’ Pick: Feng by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Feng -350