Jan Blachowicz vs Israel Adesanya
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Jared Cannonier and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Blachowicz has near plus plus striking (75). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Israel Adesanya
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Kelvin Gastelum and Anderson Silva.
- Tools: Adesanya has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
I’m pretty excited for this fight. And the narrative coming in is this Adesanya is on the verge of becoming a double champ and even bigger superstar. He’s more than a 2 to 1 favorite. But if you look historically at how champ vs champ fights have gone, the fighter at the heavier weight class tends to win a lot more often. Especially in the bigger weight classes where the power carries much graver consequences. Conor McGregor at 155 lbs against Eddie Alvarez and Amanda Nunes over Cris Cyborg at 145 lbs would be the exceptions. Matt Hughes won the trilogy over BJ Penn. Georges St. Pierre turned Penn away. Stipe Miocic won the triology over Daniel Cormier. Dustin Poirier turned Max Holloway away. In my opinion, this should be a pick em fight and Blachowicz at anywhere near +200 is crazy, being the much bigger fighter. I mean, Adesanya isn’t a big middleweight to begin with. And he hasn’t been bulking up for this fight. Is he going to have a big speed advantage? Of course. Do I think Adesanya has the power to knock Blachowicz out? No way. And Blachowicz doesn’t have to land many shots to put Adesanya to sleep. Plus, I’m sure Blachowicz will want to test Adesanya’s strength in the clinch, pushing him against the fence. Wearing on him. Maybe even take Adesanya down. It’s a legit path to win for Blachowicz. And I’ll fess up, going into his fight with Reyes, I still hadn’t bought in to Blachowicz. The memories of his lackluster UFC losses were still in mind. But this is a different dude who went strike for strike with Reyes before knocking him out. It was some lucky shot. Blachowicz was arguably winning the fight, before the knockout. I understand Adesanya is undefeated. He’s more popular. But he’s also very inconsistent. Let’s not forget Adesanya was inches away from losing to Kelvin Gastelum and Yoel Romero. The right style matchup can give Adesanya problems. I wouldn’t be shocked if Adesanya busted out the leg kicks to chop Blachowicz down to win. But with Blachowicz at +200 dog, the value is too much for me to pass up.
Chris’ Pick: Blachowicz by 2nd round knockout.
Amanda Nunes vs Megan Anderson
- Amanda Nunes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 13-1
- Key Wins: Beat Germaine de Randamie twice. Once by knockout, the other by decision. Knocked out Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Raqual Pennington, and Ronda Rousey. Submitted Miesha Tate. Beat Felicia Spencer and Valentina Shevchenko twice.
- Tools: Nunes has plus plus striking (80) and plus wrestling (70).
- Megan Anderson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cat Zingano. Submitted a 6-2 striker.
- Tools: Anderson has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
Look, I’m not delusional. Nunes should win this fight. She should be better everywhere. But does Anderson have a shot? She does. Let’s not forget Nunes is a natural bantamweight. She’s never fought anyone as big as Anderson with a legit 145 lb frame and is over 6 foot tall. Anderson has one punch knockout power. And I think it’s fair to wonder how serious of a threat does Nunes think Anderson is? How hard is she training for this fight? I actually think the safest way for Nunes to win here is to take Anderson down. I don’t think she’ll go that route because she has so much confidence in her hands. But guys, Anderson is a +850 underdog. And the price could go up. Is Anderson likely to win? No. Does she have a chance? Yes. And it’s because of the one punch knockout power she has and the fact that anyone can get caught. I’m rolling the dice and playing the lottery.
Chris’ Pick: Anderson by 2nd round knockout.
Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling
- Petr Yan
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson.
- Tools: Yan has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Aljamain Sterling
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 11-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns.
- Tools: Sterling has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus plus grappling (75).
Title fights don’t really get too much closer than this. Going into Yan’s fight with Aldo, I though Yan’s cardio could really take over towards the middle of the fight. But Aldo’s cardio held up. He did get tired near the end of the 4th round and Yan was able to get the finish in the 5th. Sterling’s striking has come a long way. He hasn’t been very active lately, but his 2nd to last fight, he dominated Pedro Munhoz in the stand up. I could see this fight going either way, but I will say I think Yan’s wrestling could be more like a 65 than a 70. I know Sterling’s grappling is a 75 based off of what he did to Sandhagen. I could see Sterling getting Yan down and put him in some bad spots. I don’t think Sterling gets the submission, but out grappling Yan should get him the belt.
Chris’ Pick: Sterling by decision.
Islam Makhachev vs Drew Dober
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 29
- UFC Record:
- Key Losses: Knocked by Adriano Martins.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gleison Tibau. Submitted Kajan Johnson. Beat Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Tools: Makhachev has above average striking (60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Drew Dober
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Hernandez and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Tools: Dober has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Has Dober improved his wrestling enough? That’s the question of this fight. We all know Dober has better striking, more power. But is he going to be able to stuff Makhachev’s take down? I don’t think so. Makhachev has legit 70 wrestling. Makhachev should cruise against a really dangerous fighter here.
Chris’ Pick: Makhachev by decision.
Thiago Santos vs Aleksandar Rakic
- Thiago Santos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-2 at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders.
- Tools: Santos has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Aleksandar Rakic
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Anthony Smith.
- Tools: Rakic has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
Going into Santos’ fight with Teixeira, I was confident in his wrestling being a 65. He fought Jon Jones. And was able to stuff most of Jones’ take downs. But he didn’t look the same against Teixeira. Sure, Teixeira probably has improved his grappling to a 70. But Jones has 70 wrestling. What I’m trying to say is Santos suffered some horrific injuries from the Jones fight at being that he’s 37 years old, I’m not sure if he’s ever going to be that same guy. And that’ll be a problem against Rakic who showed off his fancy, brand new 70 wrestling against Anthony Smith. Smith, I had his grappling graded as a 65. He won twice by taking down Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir and submitting them. Maybe not a 70 tool, but 65 for sure. So what do I do when I see Rakic dominate Smith with wrestling for all 3 rounds of their fight. Rakic took him down, held him down, beat him up the whole fight. Maybe Smith’s grappling has regressed to a 60? I don’t think I can give Rakic a 75 grade yet. Haven’t seen enough. All this said, I’m confident in giving Rakic’s grade a 70. The smart thing for him to do in this fight is exactly what Teixeira did and that’s take Santos down.
Chris’ Pick: Rakic by decision.
Dominick Cruz vs Casey Kenney
- Dominick Cruz
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Beat Urijah Faber twice. Split decision over TJ Dillashaw.
- Tools: Cruz has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Casey Kenney
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Nathaniel Wood, Ray Borg, Heili Alateng and Manny Bermudez.
- Tools: Kenney has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
Cruz has two things going against him. At 36 years old, it’s not getting any easier for him to stay healthy. So anytime he’s coming into a fight, it’s fair to wonder how much less than 100% his health is. The 2nd thing going against him is the fact that I think he’s lost a step. Isn’t as fast. His last fight against Henry Cejudo, he was doing OK. The striking was close to equal. But Cejudo has 70 striking. Cruz used to have 75 striking. So I’ve downgraded his striking to a 70. But his main problem against Cejudo was the lack of power. They were going blow for blow and Cejudo caught him at the end of the 2nd round. Game over. But the good news is that Cruz’s wrestling held up. And that’ll be important against Kenney, who’s best tool is his wrestling. That’ll make this a stand up fight. And although I think Cruz is starting to regress, his footwork and elusiveness should still be enough to outpoint Kenney.
Chris’ Pick: Cruz by decision.
Yadong Song vs Kyler Phillips
- Yadong Song
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 5-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Arantes and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera.
- Tools: Yadong has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Phillips has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This is going to be the test for Phillips. His striking looks flashy, looks effective. But only 2 of his 8 wins have been over quality competition. And I think Yadong is way too much, way too soon. Although Yadong is only 23 years old, he’s got 5 UFC wins and looks like a title shot in his future is inevitable.
Chris’ Pick: Yadong by 1st round knockout.
Joseph Benavidez vs Askar Askarov
- Joseph Benavidez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 13-5 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sergio Pettis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Perez and Formiga, not once, but twice. Has submitted Elliott. Has beat Dustin Ortiz (twice), John Moraga. Split decision win over Henry Cejudo.
- Tools: Benavidez has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
- Askar Askarov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-0-1
- UFC Record: 2-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler, a well rounded 19-6 fighter, a well rounded 37-5 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out a 9-2 grappler. Beat Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott.
- Tools: Askarov has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
Askarov has championship level upside, but Benavidez is just the worst matchup for him. Askarov fought Pantoja and most of the fight was scrambles. Pantoja engaged in it. Tried to out grapple and submit Askarov. But Benavidez has the wrestling to stuff take downs and break clinches. Most fighters, when they lose title fights, they’re never the same. But Benavidez has so much more power than Askarov, that there’s plenty margin in case he regresses.
Chris’ Pick: Benavidez by 2nd round knockout.
Kai Kara France vs Rogerio Bontorin
- Kai Kara-France
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Beat Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Tools: Kara France has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Rogerio Bontorin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raulian Paiva. Submitted a 15-4 grappler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 13-0 fighter. Split decision win over Magomed Bibulatov.
- Tools: Bontorin has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
Ray Borg has 70 wrestling at 125 lbs. Bontorin fought him and I was impressed by how Bontorin was able to get back up again and again. He lost the fight to Borg, but wasn’t dominated either. Enough for me to grade his grappling tool as a 65. His striking on the other hand isn’t as developed. And that’s going to be a problem against Kara-France who’s wrestling is at least a 60. It’s possible the tool is a 65. Somewhere between there. But those City Kickboxing guys know how to wrestle and Kara-France could come in with better wrestling. On the feet, Kara-France has a monster advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Kara-France by decision.
Tim Elliott vs Jordan Espinosa
- Tim Elliott
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-9
- Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Louis Smolka and Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Elliott has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Jordan Espinosa
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out an 11-3 striker.
- Tools: Espinosa has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
I think the fight is a coin flip. And the books reflect the same. Both guys are very similar but I think Elliott’s wrestling is just a little better and that’ll make the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Elliott by split decision.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Carlos Ulberg
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Split decision win over a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Nzechukwu has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
- Carlos Ulberg
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 3-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Ulberg has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
This is a risky fight to bet on. Ulberg is the very rare fighter to have made his UFC debut with only 2 pro MMA fights. But he’s a pro kick boxer. Which is great for his striking. But who knows where his ground game is at. His fight on The Contender didn’t last long. Knocked his opponent out in a few minutes. But he trains at City Kickboxing and those guys know how to wrestle. So the odds are good he has at least 50 wrestling. And that’s all he’s going to need against Nzechukwu, who also has 50 wrestling. My only main concern with picking Ulberg is that I have no clue where his cardio and pace is at. Nzechukwu is lean, fights at a pace and has pretty good cardio. When he fought Darko Stosic, he lost the 1st round. Stosic went hard. But then he started to tire out and Nzechukwu took over from there. With Ulberg’s inexperience, that could definitely happen to him. But the most likely out come is Ulberg’s superior striking winning him the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by 1st round knockout.
Jake Matthews vs Sean Brady
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Beat Jingliang Li.
- Tools: Matthews has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Sean Brady
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Court McGee and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Brady has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
I’m very surprised Matthews is a 2 to 1 dog here. Maybe it’s because Brady is new. Or because Brady has been more active. Brady’s wrestling has carried him to where he’s at. But he doesn’t want to be on the ground with Matthews’ 65 grappling. And on the feet, Matthews’ striking is noticeably better. Brady might have more power, but as long as Matthews doesn’t get caught he should win here.
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by decision.
Livinha Souza vs Amanda Lemos
- Livinha Souza
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-0 striker and a 14-1 grappler. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat Ashley Yoder and a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Tools: Souza has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-1-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue.
- Tools: Lemos has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
It still baffles me that Mizuki Inoue was favored to beat Lemos. Going into that fight, I thought Lemos should’ve been around -250. And the fight played out exactly how I thought, minus Lemos didn’t have the wrestling advantage I thought she would. So, most times in these lighter weight classes, if I’m looking for a place to start, just looking at the fighter’s record on how much power they have, I’ll look at how many of the fighter’s wins came by knockout. Then I dig deeper after that. Most lighter weight fighters that I would say have knockout power, usually win about half of their fights by KO. Which brings me to Lemos. 8 pro wins. 5 knockout. 2 submissions. 1 decision. Impressive. She’s going to have a big power advantage over Souza.
Chris’ Pick: Lemos by 1st round knockout.
Uros Medic vs Aalon Cruz
- Uros Medic
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Medic has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
- Aalon Cruz
- Age: 31
- Pro Record 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat an 8-2 grappler.
- Tools: Cruz has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Despite all the hype Cruz got from his highlight reel knockout on The Contender, the reality is that he was losing that fight going into the 3rd round. Cruz has the look. He’s lean, long reach, has cardio. But he gets hit a lot. Medic is an interesting fighter. Trains out of Alaska. Tough to grade his skills. 6-0 pro record. Almost all his wins are over tomato cans. And he starched his opponent on The Contender in 2 minutes. But I do think Medic’s striking is more explosive.
Chris’ Pick: Medic by 1st round knockout.
Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Bautisa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60)
- Trevin Jones
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 9-5 wrestler.
- Tools: Jones has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
The odds aren’t out for this fight yet, but it’s very likely Bautista will be a huge favorite. He proved in his last fight that he has legit 60 wrestling. Miles Johns didn’t even try to take him down. Jones initially beat Timur Valiev (before it was ruled a no contest), but he only won at the time because Valiev gassed himself out trying to finish Jones in the first round. Bautista is better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Bautista by 1st round knockout.