Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Losses: Knocked by Adriano Martins.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gleison Tibau. Submitted Drew Dober and Kajan Johnson. Beat Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Tools: Makhachev has above average striking (60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
- Tools: Moises has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
This is one of those rare fights where a huge underdog has a huge chance of winning. And I’m changing my pick to Moises. Originally, I was going to pick Makhachev because I went along with the narrative that Makhachev is the next Khabib. And he might still be. And he looked great against Dober. If you have Makhachev with 75 wrestling, yeah, he wins this fight. Although the -650 he’s priced at is ridiculous. But I rewatched his last fight before the Dober one, against Rami Davos. And it was closer than I remember. Makhachev edged out Ramos on the feet for the first 2 rounds. It was close. Then the 3rd round, Makhachev clinched with Ramos and hurt him with a knee. Almost knocked him out. And stayed on top for the rest of the round. I have Ramos as a 65 grappler. The same grade I have Moises with. But yeah, Makhachev wasn’t able to out class Ramos on the ground. So I have Makhachev’s wrestling graded as a 70, albeit with the caveat that the Ramos fight happened in 2019 and Makhachev’s wrestling might be better now. But I pick fights based on the most recent skill level and not projection. Looking at Moises, his striking took a huge step forward in his last fight with Alexander Hernandez. So much so that I upgraded the tool to a 65, albeit with 55 power. I think Moises will be able to get up after taken down. And really, would Makhachev want to give Moises 5 rounds on the ground giving Moises that much time to find a submission. I think a lot of this fight will be on the feet and although Makhachev should have more power, Moises should have the better striking. And with Moises priced at +425, it’s a glorious opportunity.
Chris’ Pick: Moises by decision.
Miesha Tate vs Marion Reneau
- Miesha Tate
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Holly Holm. Majority decision over Sara McMann.
- Tools: Tate has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Marion Reneau
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 5-6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted Sara McMann.
- Tools: Reneau has above average striking (60). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
There’s about a zero percent chance I bet this fight. Cause who knows how Tate is going to look in this fight. She last fought almost 5 years ago. And it was her first fight after getting knocked out by Amanda Nunes. She fought Raquel Pennington. Did okay in the 1st round. Got out struck a little. But took Pennington down and controlled her there. But after that, it was like she was out of gas. Pennington was able to control her in the clinch, get on top of Tate and control her. Then she retired. But it was coming back. Impossible for me to know for sure, but it’s plausible she’s coming back for financial reasons. How much has she been training these 5 years? The past year? Who knows. Initially I was going to pick Tate, because I thought her wrestling would get it done. But I rewatched the Pennington fight. I have questions about her cardio. And Reneau barely lost to Macy Chiasson in her last fight. Striking was a little better than I thought. I upgraded the tool to a 60. Close fight, but I’m going to pick the more known commodity.
Chris’ Pick: Reneau by decision.
Jeremey Stephens vs Mateusz Gamrot
- Jeremy Stephens
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 15-17
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett. Beat Darren Elkins.
- Tools: Stephens has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted a 9-1 grappler. Beat a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
- Tools: Gamrot has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
This fight is really going to come down to whether or not Gamrot can take Stephens down. Cause on the feet, that should be Stephens world. But a guy like Gamrot is rare. 17-0 coming into the UFC. Lost a close split decision to a last minute replacement who turns out to be really good in Guram Kutateladze. The other thing is that Stephens best weight class is 145 lbs. He’s been on his best run in the UFC at that weight. He’s back up to 155 lbs because he’s older and it’s too hard for him to make that cut. My point is that Stephens is a smaller lightweight. I do think Gamrot will be able to get him down and control him most of the fight. And right now the odds have Gamrot favored at -265 which reflects where I have both fighters graded. It’s priced right.
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by decision.
Rodolfo Vieira vs Dustin Stoltzfus
- Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Tools: Vieira has average striking paired with below average power (50-40) and near plus grappling (65).
- Dustin Stoltzfus
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 10-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Stoltzfus has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Just like the Anthony Hernandez fight, this is Vieira’s fight to lose. Although I’d say Hernandez has better grappling that Stoltzfus. Vieira would’ve beat Hernandez if he didn’t go so hard in the 1st round, rushing to submit him. As long as Vieira is patient, he should eventually get the submission win.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by 1st round submission.
Billy Quarantillo vs Gabriel Benitez
- Billy Quarantillo
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Nelson, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
- Tools: Quarantillo has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Gabriel Benitez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Enrique Barzola.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight.
- Tools: Benitez has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
I’m shocked that Benitez is a 2 to 1 favorite here. Maybe because it’s been 4 years since Benitez fought a wrestler, Enrique Barzola, and lost because he kept getting taken down. Maybe it’s because Quarantillo lost his last fight getting taken down a few times by Gavin Tucker. Maybe people think Quarantillo doesn’t really have grappling. But I can tell you, that Quarantillo loss had more to do with Tucker breaking out and showing up improved vs Quarantillo not being for real. I’m confident Quarantillo has 60 grade grappling. And I’m confident he’ll be able to take Benitez down. Repeatedly. Billy Q will also have a big cardio advantage as he usually does. Oh, and Benitez took this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. This is my favorite pick on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Quarantillo by decision.
Daniel Rodriguez vs Preston Parsons
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Preston Parsons
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Parsons has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also average grappling (50).
Parsons has 9 pro wins and all 9 of them are submission wins. Right off the bat, for a guy like that, I want to give him at least a 55 grappling grade. But I watched his last fight against an 11-9 wrestler. Parsons should have steamrolled him on the ground. And Parsons did in a way, but it was on the feet. The wrestler kept getting back up, and even took Parsons down at one point. So based on what I saw, I’m grading his wrestling tool a 50. Not that it’s going to matter in this short notice fight with Rodriguez. Even if I’m wrong and his grappling is a 55, that’s not good enough to get Rodriguez down. I expect Rodriguez to dominate in the stand up with a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 1st round knockout.
Amanda Lemos vs Montserrat Conejo
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-1-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Livinha Souza. Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue.
- Tools: Lemos has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Montserrat Conejo
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-3 striker. Beat Cheyanne Buys and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Conejo has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
Livinha Souza had a 14-2 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. She’s really good. 55 striking. 60 grappling. But the way she fought Lemos, it looked like Souza didn’t want to be there. It looked like massive mismatch. Lemos just stalked her the whole fight, which was just 4 minutes of the 1st round. You’d think Souza would want to get the fight on the ground ASAP, but she didn’t get remotely close. I’m not sure Souza landed any strikes. So I’m not sure what Conejo is going to be able to do here. Her grappling is on par with Souza, but her striking tool is more of a 50. Her last opponent, Buys, who has 55 striking, was out landing her. If Conejo can’t get Lemos to the ground with her patented scarf hold, this fight will be over quick.
Chris’ Pick: Lemos by 1st round knockout.
Khalid Taha vs Sergey Morozov
- Khalid Taha
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a 10-2 grappler and a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Taha has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Sergey Morozov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and a 5-0-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 11-3 wrestler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Tools: Morozov has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
The fact that someone like Taha has started his UFC career 1-2 speaks to the quality of the 135 lb division. Taha was a big underdog against Raoni Barcelos, but came close to pulling off a big upset. Barcelos slightly out struck him. Meanwhile Morozov was unlucky in making his UFC debut against elite prospect Umar Nurmagomedov. Morozov’s striking could be a 55. I’m not totally sure. But even if it is, Taha has some margin and should get the better of the stand up. He also might be able to take Morozov down here and there to mix it up. Taha at -165 is solid value. A near lock that’s not that heavy.
Chris’ Pick: Taha by 2nd round knockout.
Miles Johns vs Anderson dos Santos
- Miles Johns
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Johns has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
- Anderson dos Santos
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 21-8
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Andre Ewell.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 17-4 grappler.
- Tools: dos Santos has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
Dos Santos’ grappling has proved to be better than I thought. He was able to take Andre Ewell down a couple times. He submitted Martin Day in the 1st round. But he’s not going to be able to get to his grappling going against a 60 wrestler in Johns. Johns is coming off a big knockout over Natividad. 3rd career KO in 11 wins. Perhaps he’s found some power in his hands.
Chris’ Pick: Johns by 2nd round knockout.
Francisco Figueiredo vs Malcolm Gordon
- Francisco Figueiredo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jerome Rivera.
- Tools: Figueiredo has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Malcolm Gordon
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by an 11-8 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and an 8-1 striker. Beat a 6-0 wrestler and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Gordon has fringe average striking (45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Big striking and power advantage for Deiveson’s older brother in this fight. He showed me that his grappling is more of a 60 based on how he out grappled Jerome Rivera. I think Figueiredo is going to use his grappling to keep this fight on the feet though because that’s where he has the biggest advantage. Plus Gordon is coming off a 44 second knockout loss. And turns out 4 of Gordon’s 5 losses have come from being knocked out.
Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 2nd round knockout.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Alan Baudot
- Rodrigo Nascimento
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker.
- Tools: Nascimento has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Alan Baudot
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Baudot has striking that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average wrestling (45).
I spent some time watching Nascimento’s fight with Mayes. And he’s a much better striker than I thought. His reputation coming in to the UFC was of a grappler. But he actually out struck Mayes who I know has 55 striking. No shame in Nascimento getting knocked out by Chris Daukaus because Daukaus had a huge power advantage. And Baudot reminds me a lot of Mayes. Has some 55 striking, but as of his last fight, has 45 wrestling. Worse than Mayes. Baudot fought a striker in Tom Aspinall and Aspinall took him down. Baudot couldn’t get up and got finished. So now you have a guy in Nascimento who should be even better at take downs and you should see that this one is pretty lopsided.
Chris’ Pick: Nascimento by 1st round submission.